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Draft Strategy

Anatomy of a League Winner

Ryan Heath examines historical trends, stats, and ADP to identify the players you need to dominate fantasy football leagues in 2025.

In a typical fantasy football league, somewhere between only ~7-15 players actually matter in each season. Replacement-level production is typically available on the waiver wire at most positions in the most popular fantasy football formats, so forget about safe “floors” and focus on attempting to find one of the few league-winning players with every draft pick.

Which Positions are the Most Important?

Since 2017, 39% of these league-winners have been RBs, 30% have been WRs, 11% have been QBs, 11% have been TEs, 6% have been defenses, and 3% have been kickers.

The results are similar using the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) method, which compares the fantasy points per game offered by the top-3 starters at each position to those of the bottom-3 starters. Over the last 13 seasons, a top RB has again generated approximately 1.3x the value over replacement of a top WR.

But as you might notice from the above graphic, the dominance of RBs has waned over the past handful of seasons. In fact, league-winning WRs outnumbered RBs in both 2022 and 2023, before the RB position’s outlierishly healthy 2024 helped them reclaim the crown.

Considering the directions both positions were trending until last year, Heath is betting on league-winning WRs out-numbering league-winning RBs for a third time in 2025.

Positional Strategies

Read Heath’s article in its entirety for deeper insight into what makes a league-winner, as well as round-by-round guides and plenty of players to target. But to keep things brief, here’s a TL;DR of the key takeaways for each position:

Quarterback:

• League-winning QBs tend to be young and mobile, so drafting Daniels, Allen, Jackson, or Hurts in the early rounds is a reliable strategy

• If you miss out on these studs, wait until very late (Round 10+) to take a QB in a “McShanahan” offense or with rushing upside (Purdy, McCarthy, Maye, Fields, Nix)

Running Back:

• Draft at least two RBs through the first six rounds, focusing on young players, those with prior volume, and elite pass-catching resumes (Achane, Brown, Walker, Hall, Hampton)

• In late rounds, prioritize RBs over WRs — particularly those in ambiguous backfields that we’ll get immediate answers on in Week 1 — rather than pure handcuffs (Harvey, Warren, Tuten, Roschon Johnson)

Wide Receiver:

• Draft at least two (preferably three) WRs through the first six rounds, focusing on those with elite prior efficiency (by First Downs per Route Run). It also helps if they’re on good and even crowded offenses

• Target talented/efficient WRs like Nacua, London, McConkey, Tetairoa McMillan, and Jennings

Tight End:

• League-winning TEs have usually been heavily targeted in previous years and are on good offenses that aren’t too crowded

• Either draft George Kittle in late Round 4, or punt the position until Round 8-9 or later, focusing on players in good offenses who lack significant target competition (Engram, Loveland, Henry)

Read the full article for further insight, as well as more honorable mentions that could be potential league-winners.

League Winners, Targets & Values

The Fantasy Points staff takes a deep look into the league-winning players they're targeting in 2025 fantasy football drafts, including those undervalued in the markets.

League-winner: the select few players we’ve identified who provide the championship-level production.
Target: a player the market has read correctly.
Value: a player who is likely to outperform his ADP.

League-Winners

Jayden Daniels:

• The 2024 Rookie of the Year averaged the 2nd-most rushing FPG (7.4) at the position, and he easily led the league in scrambles (72) and scramble yards (577). He has some room to improve on designed carries after averaging just 3.6 YPC on those totes. Daniels also put together an efficient rookie season as a passer, ranking sixth in catchable pass rate (77.5%) and 6th in turnover-worthy throw rate (1.9%) among 46 QBs who attempted 200+ passes. He’ll look to do more of the same in 2025 with the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil in Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced offense.

De’Von Achane:

• Achane has scored 11+ TDs in each of his first two seasons, and Christian McCaffrey (45%) and Saquon Barkley (34%) are the only two backs to finish as a top-5 scorer at a higher rate than Achane (31%) the last two seasons. He also led all RBs in receptions (78), receiving yards (592), receiving TDs (6), routes (361), and designed targets (36). If Tua stays healthy, Achane could threaten to be the top overall fantasy RB.

Tetairoa McMillan:

• At 6’4”, 219 lbs, McMillan is a prototypical X receiver with elite vertical ability, RAC ability, and separation ability. It shouldn’t take long for him to surpass Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen as the team’s WR1, which could lead to major production is Bryce Young takes another step forward. Young averaged 208.9 passing YPG and 1.4 passing TDs per game in the final nine games after averaging just 173.4 passing YPG and .6 passing TDs in his first 18 career starts.

George Kittle:

• Kittle averaged 79.4 receiving YPG without Deebo Samuel, which is easily a TE best and the 9th-best among all WRs over the last five combined seasons. He finished as a top-12 scoring TE in 13-of-14 games (93%) last season, and he’s done it a position-best 73% of the time over the last three seasons. He paced the position in YPRR (2.88), YPT (12.02), and YPR (14.18) in 2024, and his target share (19.4%) and TPRR (.24) have the potential to rise into the upper tier of the position this season with Brandon Aiyuk likely starting the year on the PUP list.

Targets

Drake Maye:

• Maye averaged 18.0 FPG in his 10 full starts despite throwing to arguably the NFL’s worst receiving corps and playing behind the NFL’s worst offensive line — he finished as a top-12 scorer in half of his starts. The additions of weapons Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson, as well as offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson should give him the opportunity to take another step forward. Plus, Maye’s rushing ability gives him top-12 upside, as his 31.3 scramble YPG ranked 5th-best in the Fantasy Points Data history, which increased to 35.2 scramble YPG across his full games.

Kenneth Walker:

• New OC Klint Kubiak ran outside zone at the second-highest rate (41%) with the Saints, and his zone-heavy run scheme should benefit Walker, who averages 4.54 YPC and a position-best .31 MTF/ATT in his career on outside-zone carries. Walker also had over a 10% target share for the first time in his career at 12.3%, and Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Javonte Williams each had a 15% target share or better under Kubiak.

Jayden Reed:

• Reed saw the 3rd-most designed targets by a WR with 25 in 2024, and he’s totalled 31/282/3 rushing in his first two seasons for an additional 1.4 FPG as a runner. He is also averaging 2.29 YPRR to start his career, which ranks 6th among all Year 2 and Year 3 WRs. If he can return to the pace he was on before Jordan Love’s groin injury last season, he’s more than worth his WR45 ADP.

Dallas Goedert:

• Goedert has finished as a top-12 TE in FPG in each of the last six seasons, but he’s missed 24 games over that span. He also averages 11.7 YPR and 43.9 receiving YPG for his career, and finished behind only George Kittle in YPRR (2.37), 4th in YAC/REC (6.17), and 4th in YPT (9.54) last season. If he can stay healthy, he’s a fantasy TE1.

Values

Dak Prescott:

• Prescott owns a passing TD crown from 2023 when he threw for 36 scores, and he’s reached 30+ TD passes and 4400+ yards in each of his last three healthy campaigns since 2019. He owns a career 5.1% TD rate and was at 6.1% in 45 games from 2021-23 before last season’s struggles. He’s primed for a bounceback in 2025 given the addition of George Pickens and the fact that Dallas has arguably the NFL’s worst backfield.

Tony Pollard:

• Pollard easily paced Spears in snap share (69%>42%), carry share (62%>29%), and route share (47%>36%) in one of the NFL’s worst offenses last season. He posted career-highs in carries (260) and rushing yards (1079), and saw the largest designed carry share of his career at 66.4%. He’lll need a phenomenal rookie season from Ward to have any chance at a top-12 campaign, but his healthy role and improved offensive environment makes him a value at his current ADP.

Jakobi Meyers:

• Meyers reached 1000+ yards for the first time last season, and he’s coming off career-highs in targets (129), receptions (87), receiving yards (1027), and FPG (14.5). He posted a 22.7% target share, 1.86 YPRR, and 10 end-zone targets on his way to finishing as the WR22. Meyers produced his strong season despite receiving some of the league’s worst quarterback play from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Geno Smith will give Meyers a steadier hand at the trigger in 2025 after ranking 4th in passing yards (12,226), 3rd in completion percentage (68.5%), and 8th in passing TDs (71) over the last three seasons.

David Njoku:

• Njoku had the best season of his career on a per-game basis in 2024, finishing as the TE4 with 13.5 FPG. In 2023, he posted career-best totals in targets (123), receptions (81), receiving yards (882), and TDs (6). If you stretch his performance out to the last three seasons, he’s finished as a top-12 TE in 63% of his starts, which is tied with Brock Bowers (63%) and trails only George Kittle (73%). Njoku will smash his ADP if Joe Flacco wins the QB competition, and he’ll settle in as a volume-based low-end TE1 if the Browns go with their younger options.

Read the full article for more league-winners, targets, and values.

Auction / Salary Cap Draft Plan

Joe Dolan explains his strategy for auction and salary cap fantasy football drafts, with advice on bidding, budgeting, and building teams.

Pre-Draft Pointers

Tiers, Tiers, Tiers: get players in your targeted tiers — at least at RB and WR — while there are still players left in that tier. Getting constantly caught bidding at the back end of a tier is a great way to run out of money quickly and to be “drafting from behind,” not to mention constantly drafting the last player in a tier might naturally result in a worse team — paying a premium for an inferior product.

Go Cheap at QB: that’s not to say that Hurts, Jackson, Allen, and Jayden Daniels are bad players to have on your fantasy team, but if the bids come flying in, don’t be afraid to sit out. Of the 11 quarterbacks we have projected to run for 350 or more yards, six of them are under $10 values on our Auction Cheat Sheet.

The Middle Tier is Where to be at TE: If your league has one TE spot and isn’t TE premium (i.e., 1.5 PPR for TEs, like the FFPC), Dolan thinks it’s only worth getting into a bidding war for a true difference-maker, like Brock Bowers. Otherwise, take middle tier values like Njoku, or punt the position and target someone like Hunter Henry.

Only Enter Serious Bidding Wars if You’re OK Drafting the Player: Handcuffing yourself in an auction draft is the most common and easiest way to lose. It’s also the easiest to avoid. It’s better to let your opponent get a value than it is to cripple your own ability to get a good player at a fair cost later.

On Draft Day

At the Beginning of Your Draft (First Three Rounds): be “selectively aggressive.” Dolan likes to leave this portion of the draft with at least two high-level players he feels good about, but he doesn’t want to go nuts here and leave his bankroll short for the crucial middle rounds. However, if he leaves all his money for the middle rounds, he’ll have a very deep but dreadfully mediocre team.

In the Middle of Your Draft: this is where Dolan will be doing the majority of his RB drafting — he loves the values in this group, and thinks he can get three to four quality RB options for the price he paid for his top two WRs (he especially loves boring vets like Tony Pollard, Isiah Pacheco, and Kenneth Walker as players with big projected roles who won’t break the bank).

At the End of Your Draft: identify the player you must have at the end of the roster. And pay to go get him… provided you have the capital to do so.

Read the full article for more tips and thorough explanations — and also check out Matt Donnelly’s The Art of Auction Drafts, where he applies Sun Tzu's The Art of War to auction/salary cap drafts.

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