The 2025 NFL Draft is officially in the books! Now that we finally know where the top prospects will be suiting up next season, the Fantasy Points team has been busy digging deep to dissect the draft’s biggest winners and losers.

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Rookie Market Report

Tom Brolley examines the fantasy football landscape for the 2025 NFL Draft rookies at all positions after learning their landing spots.

Quarterbacks

📈 Cam Ward immediately jumps to the top of Tennessee’s depth chart ahead of Will Levis, who owns a 5-16 record since the Titans selected him 33rd overall in 2023. HC Brian Callahan won’t overexpose his rookie QB, but he should be more aggressive than last season’s -3.5% pass rate over expectation (27th in the NFL). When he was with Cincinnati in 2023, Callahan’s offense ranked second in pass rate over expectation (7.5%).

📉 Shedeur Sanders endured the most shocking slide in NFL history, going off the board to Cleveland in the fifth round after ending 2024 as the favorite to be the first player selected. While he’s fortunate to have landed in a weak QB room, there’s no ignoring the fact that Sanders was the second QB drafted by the Browns, 50 picks behind Dillon Gabriel. He’ll also be working with a thin receiving corps and doesn’t offer much in the running game, which makes him a QB3 (if he even starts this season).

Running Backs

📈 R.J. Harvey will bring some much-needed juice to a Denver backfield that combined for just 237 explosive yards last season. The Broncos have the seventh-most vacated carries (138) and 70 RB targets available with Javonte Williams leaving for Dallas. If HC Sean Payton trusts Harvey in the passing game, he could have a monster season, as Broncos RBs finished fourth in targets in 2024 with 117 and first in 2023 with 153.

📉 Dylan Sampson finds himself in a suddenly cluttered backfield in Cleveland. The Browns took Quinshon Judkins in the second round to presumably be their early down back, before selecting Sampson two rounds later. With veteran Jerome Ford likely to mix in on passing downs as well, there isn’t a lot of work leftover for the former SEC Offensive Player of the Year.

Wide Receivers

📈 Tetairoa McMillan should make an immediate impact in a Carolina receiving corps that features Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker. Bryce Young has the chance to take another step forward if McMillan can be the perimeter threat that Legette was unable to be in his first season, as Young averaged 208.9 passing YPG and 1.4 passing TDs per game in the final nine games after averaging just 173.4 passing YPG and .6 passing TDs in his first 18 career starts.

📉 Emeka Egbuka is likely to find himself stuck in a slot receiver rotation with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. The Buccaneers were one of just two teams that didn’t vacate any targets this off-season, so it’s hard to see a path for fantasy-relevant opportunities for the former Ohio State star.

Tight Ends

📈 Mason Taylor has little competition to be the Jets’ TE1 at the start of the season, with just Jeremy Ruckert and Stone Smartt at the top of the depth chart. Gang Green has the third-most targets vacated (214) this offseason, and new QB Justin Fields helped Cole Kmet to finish as the TE9 in 2023, despite being in a run-heavy offense.

📉 Tyler Warren will try to become the first Colts TE to reach 500+ receiving yards since Eric Ebron did it with Andrew Luck at quarterback in 2018. Indy finished last in pass rate over expectation (-6.4%) in 2023, with Anthony Richardson ranking last in completion percentage (47.7%), CPOE (-6.1%), and off-target throw rate (26.5%).

Read all of Tom’s Market Reports to see more rookies rising and falling on fantasy draft boards.

Veteran Market Report

Tom Brolley examines the biggest veteran winners and losers for fantasy football from the 2025 NFL Draft.

Winners

📈 Trevor Lawrence now has two of the most exciting young wide receivers in Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., and one of the best young play-callers in HC Liam Coen, who helped Baker Mayfield to a QB4 finish with 22.6 FPG in 2024. Lawrence owns a 3.8% TD rate and a 2.5% INT rate over the last two seasons since he finished as the QB11 (18.4 FPG) in his second season in 2022, so it’s officially put up or shut up time for the former #1 pick.

📈 Caleb Williams continues to benefit from a front office going all-in on him. The Bears landed the most-coveted head coaching candidate in Ben Johnson, acquired Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson to completely revamp the interior of their offensive line, and now they’ve drafted two shiny new weapons in TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden. Williams will still have to prove it on the field, though, as he managed just a QB21 finish (15.6 FPG) last season despite having an all-star cast of receivers at his disposal.

Losers

📉 Najee Harris had the chance to be a mid-RB2 before the Chargers selected Omarion Hampton with the 22nd overall pick. Our own Brett Whitefield called Hampton “a mutant-like runner who is tailor-made to benefit from the running renaissance that is happening in the NFL right now,” which should fit right in with Jim Harbaugh in LA. Najee looks to be a short-yardage back at best in 2025.

📉 Rhamondre Stevenson could soon find himself with a reduced role as well, as the Patriots selected TreVeyon Henderson with the 38th overall pick. Henderson broke out right away as a freshman at Ohio State, averaging over 7.0 yards from scrimmage. Since 2000, there are only three instances of a Power Conference freshman averaging >7.0 YFS per touch with over 1,500 YFS — 2014 Nick Chubb, 2017 J.K. Dobbins, and 2021 TreVeyon Henderson, per Scott Barrett. He continued that success trough his entire college career, eventually averaging an insane 7.60 YFS per touch his senior year, the most of any Power Conference RB (min. 135 carries) in four years.

Read the full article to see why Baker Mayfield can repeat his 2024 success.👀

Team Notes

Projections guru Chris Wecht takes notes on some of the most interesting stats he dug up when finalizing the 2025 Fantasy Points rankings.

The Good

• Lamar Jackson posted the highest passing touchdown per aimed pass rate of any QB with at least 200 dropbacks over the past 4 seasons at 9.3%. The next closest was 2024 Baker Mayfield at 7.6%.
  

• Chase Brown’s 85.6% designed rushing share over his last five games played would have ranked 1st across the full season among all RBs in 2024. It also would rank 2nd among all RBs over the past 4 seasons besides 2021 Derrick Henry.
  

• Justin Fields has never had less than a 20% designed carry share in games he started over the past three seasons

The Bad

• If you exclude the final 4 week of the regular season when David Montgomery was inactive, Jahmyr Gibbs ranked 19th in target share (10.2%) among RBs and 24th in targets per game (3.1). He had less targets per game than Kenneth Walker, Rico Dowdle, Justice Hill, Zack Moss, Rachaad White, and Austin Ekeler just to name a few.
  

• There have only been six other QB seasons over the past four seasons with at least 300 passing attempts and an aimed throw rate lower than Caleb Williams’s 89.7% rate in 2024. The QBs are Russell Wilson twice, Justin Fields twice, rookie Bryce Young, and 2024 Gardner Minshew.
  

• Rhamondre Stevenson had his lowest YPC of his career in 2024 at only 3.8. That was fifth lowest among all RBs with at least 150 carries last season.

Read the full article for more eye-opening stats from every team in the NFL.

Dynasty Corner

2025 NFL Rookie Rankings

Scott Barrett’s 2025 Rookie Rankings for single-QB and superflex leagues are now LIVE! Be sure to check them out before your rookie drafts this weekend.

Some rankings that stand out:

• Colston Loveland at 7th overall (TE1)

• Luther Burden at 9th overall (WR3)

• Cam Skattebo at 15th overall (RB7)

• Jarquez Hunter at 27th overall (RB9)

• Dylan Sampson at 34th overall (RB10)

See the full list to find out where all 60 of the rookies that Barrett ranked are slotted.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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