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It’s another weekend in August, and that means more and more fantasy drafts are taking place. Avoid any panic when you’re on the clock by checking out the rankings and draft guides from our top experts, John Hansen, Scott Barrett, and Ryan Heath.
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Must-read Fantasy Points content today:
Guru’s Guys vs. Consensus 📊
WR Stats: What Matters 🧐
NFL Player Props: Receptions 💰
Training Camp News ✍️
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The Guru's Draft Rankings vs. Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper
Comparing “The Guru” John Hansen’s fantasy draft rankings against Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper’s default rankings to find an edge in 2026 fantasy drafts.
Dolphins QB Malik Willis
The Guru: 141 // ESPN: 151 // Sleeper: 192
Willis has had four career games with 14 or more pass attempts, and he’s rushed for 40+ yards in all four with 4 TDs on the ground. Among 61 QBs with at least 35 attempts last year, Willis’ 1.11 FP/DB easily led the league, but it wasn’t just his running, since his 94.3% catchable throw rate was also tops in the league. Even if he ends up taking his lumps in the passing game with an unproven receiving corps, he’s still easily capable of posting top-15 digits due to his running, so a QB1 season is within reach.
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton
The Guru: 13 // Yahoo: 18 // ESPN: 22
We’re projecting a healthy 276 touches (230 rushing, 46 receptions) as the clear lead back in an ascending offense that will be run-heavy and schemed up well under new OC Mike McDaniel, who also excels at scheming up production in the passing game for his RBs (as Devon Achane has shown so far in his career). LA was only 27th in YBCO/ATT, but the OL will be improved with stud OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back (the starting C might be done for the season, however). Despite those injuries to their starting tackles, LA was 12th in rushing yards with the fifth-best explosive run percentage.
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan
The Guru: 135 // Yahoo: 145 // ESPN: 146 // Sleeper: 196
McMillan really flashed as a rookie with 8 TDs on only 58 targets, and while his sophomore season was ruined by a serious neck issue, he managed to catch 12 of 15 targets (80% catch rate) while averaging a healthy 14.5 YPR and leading the team with 2.41 YPPR. With Mike Evans off the roster, McMillan will likely play mostly outside, where he lined up 78% of the time last year, but he does have strong inside-outside versatility. He’s clicked well with Baker Mayfield, so Hansen would not be shocked if McMillan winds up being their second-leading receiver — or even number one if he piles up the TDs again.
Jags TE Brenton Strange
The Guru: 125 // Yahoo: 164 // ESPN: 194 // Sleeper: 151
If we remove Strange’s Week 5 game last season in which he was injured and played only 38% of the snaps (1 catch for 22 yards), he was the TE7 in total scoring and the TE11 in FPG in the 11 games he played in. He was eighth in catches (45) and fifth in receiving yards (518) with a higher YPR average than luminaries like Harold Fannin, Tyler Warren, and Brock Bowers.
Read the full article HERE for more mispriced players you should queue up when you enter your draft room.
WR Stats: What Matters
Ryan Heath runs an analysis of every statistic in the Fantasy Points Data Suite to discover what metrics most effectively predict fantasy success for WRs.
Heath tested almost every stat in the Fantasy Points Data Suite (along with a handful we haven’t even added yet!) to see how well it predicts next year’s fantasy points per game (FPG). Results for the WR position are shown in the graphic below, sorted in decreasing order by correlation coefficient
While there are tons of individual stats he tested in that graphic, we can broadly group them into a few categories. Going in order of how predictive they are:
1A. Prior Production and Fantasy Scoring — Like with all other positions in fantasy football, past production is the most predictive of future production. Receiving yards, fantasy points, receptions, and their per-game variations are the gold standard.
1B. Volume — There are several ways to measure volume for WRs, with most proving similarly predictive relative to each other. But two noticeable trends are:
a) “Share” metrics are generally just as predictive as total volume (e.g., target share vs. raw targets).
b) The more context you add to volume, the more predictive it is.
*Tier Break*
2. Per-Route Efficiency — In stark contrast to RBs, efficiency is genuinely useful and predictive for WRs. As long as we’re talking about per-route efficiency, that is; per-target stats are much worse, since they control away an important piece of information (the number of targets a player “earned”). Routes are a much better base to divide from, as they’re more freely “given” to each team’s starting WRs.
*Tier Break*
3. Quality of Role — After per-route efficiency, we have a grab bag of metrics that mostly describe one aspect of a WR’s role, but that can be useful in conjunction with others to paint a larger picture. Touchdown-scoring (red zone targets, receiving TD market share, end zone targets), specialized usage (air yards share, deep targets, designed targets), and route volume/quality (total routes, route share, and horizontally-breaking routes) all fit here.
Read the full article HERE for further explanation and some leaders in these categories from last season.
NFL Player Props: Receptions
Betting expert Tom Brolley examines 2026 NFL player props, including best bets and leans on receptions.
Brolley’s Leans:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 101.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
JSN finished first in route share (32.6%), first in first-read share (44.6%), and sixth in route share (91.8%). He also quietly hit the century mark on the nose in 2024, which means he has a 17-game average of 109.5 receptions and 150.0 targets over the last two seasons. But new OC Brian Fleury could look to get Seattle’s other receivers more invovled.
Michael Pittman OVER 70.5 receptions (-115, DraftKings)
Pittman has reached 80+ receptions in four of his last five seasons, and he reached 69 receptions in his lone down season, which came with Anthony Richardson posting by far the NFL’s worst catchable throw rate (63.6%) in 11 starts. Pittman also finished seventh in catch rate (74.1%) last season, and he had the lowest aDOT (8.5) among 56 WRs who ran 56% of their routes or more from the perimeter. However, he’s dealing with a nagging hamstring injury that doesn’t appear too serious, but could rear its ugly head again down the road.
Deebo Samuel UNDER 63.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
He failed to top 60 receptions in his last three seasons in San Francisco and in five of six seasons with the franchise. However, he could be pressed into a larger role at times this season considering the growing injury histories of Mike Evans, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. He’s also a receiver who gets an above-average number of easy-access targets, leading the NFL in designed targets over the last five seasons with 114.
Read the full article HERE to find out which WR Brolley landed on as his Best Bet in this category.
Training Camp News: Week of Aug. 17
Tom Brolley filters through the noise to find the most actionable fantasy news and tidbits from 2026 NFL Training Camps.
Brolley posts a new Market Report every week during August to help our subscribers keep the pulse of what’s happening in the fantasy marketplace. His article primarily focuses on news, beat reports, and injuries emerging from practices. Be sure to also check out Jake Tribbey’s Preseason Market Report after every week of the preseason for key takeaways on player performances and playing time implications.
Upgrades:
Saints RB Travis Etienne
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Alvin Kamara is expected to miss at least one month for an MCL injury he suffered in a joint practice with the Cowboys on Aug. 18. His injury timeline makes it unlikely that he plays in the season opener against the Lions. He could also miss a Week 2 matchup against the Ravens. This injury opens the door for Etienne stealing more work as a receiver if he performs well in those roles while Kamara is out of the lineup.
Jags WR Parker Washington
ESPN’s Michael DiRocco was the latest in a growing chorus to suggest that Washington has “established himself” as Jacksonville’s WR1 through the first half of training camp. DiRocco wrote that Washington always seems to be open and has been Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. DiRocco also wrote that Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter have shared reps in 11 personnel, which is another indication that Washington is ahead of BTJ.
Saints TE Juwan Johnson
Rookie WR Jordan Tyson is dealing with yet another hamstring after leaving an Aug. 13 practice early. The injury is expected to linger well into the season, opening the door for Johnson to be the team’s #2 option in the passing game. Johnson quietly finished as the TE12 with 10.7 FPG despite scoring just 3 TDs last season. He posted 4+ receptions 12 times in 17 games, and he averaged 4.6/57.4 receiving/game and 11.4 FPG (TE8) once his Oregon Ducks roommate Tyler Shough entered the lineup in Week 8.
Downgrades:
Chargers QB Justin Herbert
C Tyler Biadasz couldn’t put any weight on his leg and had to be carted off the field, and NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported that he’s looking at a long-term injury that involved multiple ligaments. Herbert ranked 31st in sack rate (8.8%) and 34th in pressure rate (43.4%) out of 38 QBs with 200+ dropbacks last season without Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for most of the season. LA’s O-line depth is already being tested with second-round pick Jake Slaughter likely to be thrown right into the fire as a rookie.
Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Love suffered a high ankle sprain in his first preseason action on Aug. 13, and the team is hoping he’ll be ready for the regular season opener on Sept. 13. Our injury expert Jeff Mueller wrote that RBs typically miss close to three weeks because of high ankle sprains, which includes a 25% production dip in the first month upon return to play.
Colts WR Josh Downs
The Colts finally signed 34-year-old Keenan Allen to a one-year, $8.32 million contract, which came in response to Alec Pierce’s slow recovery from offseason ankle surgery. With the Chargers last season, Allen led the NFL in third-down receptions (34) and third-down conversions (29). He also led the Chargers in targets (122) and receptions (81), and he finished 12 yards short of Ladd McConkey with 777 yards. While his efficiency metrics are down at this point in his career, he’s nevertheless a proven target earner who will steal work from both Downs and TE Tyler Warren.
Read the full article HERE for more upgrades and downgrades, as well as Brolley’s “Watch List”—players he isn’t ready to upgrade or downgrade, but whose situations demand monitoring based on training camp reports and injury news.
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