Welcome to Week 13. It’s December - time to push for the bye, because there’s nothing more festive than winning a fantasy football title (and making the bye week doubles your odds).

Multiple teams are on a bye, including the Ravens, Bills, Vikings. Thankfully, we’ve got you covered.

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MARKET CHECK

EVERYTHING REPORT

Josh Allen 🤝 Joe Brady

Josh Allen hit season-highs in both scrambles (5) and designed runs (4) last week totalling 81 rushing yards. Hopefully, new OC Joe Brady will continue to encourage Allen to use his legs. This could hint at an impossible upside for Allen, who already leads the league in FPG (25.0), despite seeing a 37% decrease in rushing attempts per game compared to his last three seasons.

Rhamondre Stevenson hit a season-high in snap share (78%), carries (21), and XFP (19.0) last week. He ranks 4th-best in target share (16.2%), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs over the past six weeks. Assuming this usage sticks, Scott believes we can view Stevenson as a Rachaad White clone – high-end RB2 production on low-end RB1 volume.

Welcome to the Rashee Rice breakout. In Week 12, he earned season-highs in route share (63.2%), targets (10), target share (29.4%, 7th-most on the week), and XFP (15.3, 24nd-most). He finished the week ranking behind only Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans in fantasy points scored in PPR (27.7). Pay attention to the trends once Kadarius Toney, Richie James, and Jerick McKinnon are all back on the field.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 13 Everything Report.

START/SITS

Zack Moss…Back Again

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 13.

Start Zack Moss. After Taylor’s new thumb injury, we’ve all come crawling back to Moss like he’s Thanos in Endgame. Moss was the RB6 in points per game (20.4) in Weeks 2-5 as the Colts starter, averaging 22.3 carries and 2.5 targets per game. At the absolute worst, Moss is a volume-based RB1. Welcome back.

Start Jared Goff. In his 14 games as a favorite, Goff is averaging 303.2 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game with a stellar 8.3 YPA. His recent turnover streak is an obvious concern, but honestly, gift-wrapping his opponents an extra possession (or two) is not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy.

Start Breece Hall. Since shredding the Broncos in Week 5, Hall has been held to just 182 yards on 70 carries (2.6 YPC) over the last six weeks, but the passing game is saving him - coming off season-highs in targets (9) and receptions (7). The Falcons have allowed 4.2 YPC in their last four games… Hall projects like a mid-range RB2.

Sit Jameson Williams. His usage has risen over the last two weeks, but he’s still a part-time receiver. Williams has run a route on 63% and 60% of the pass plays in Weeks 11-12. He’s seen more than 3 targets once in 7 games. It might be coming, but remain patient.

Sit James Conner. Since returning from a knee injury three weeks ago, Conner has rushed for 36/162/0 and only added six receptions for 6 yards. Kyler Murray has also vultured carries inside-the-10 over the last three weeks (5 carries, 3 TDs). We’re left with Conner as a low-floor, back-end RB2/FLEX with this usage.

Sit Javonte Williams. Javonte has totalled 107 touches over the Broncos five-game win streak, but he’s still looking for his first rushing score of the season. Houston’s allowing just 3.33 YPC (3rd-fewest) and he’s played on just 35% of the Bronco's snaps when trailing compared to 61% when they’re ahead. Texans are 3-point favorites.

Read the full article for Graham’s starts/sits (see why he’s flexing Garrett Wilson and Marquise Brown)

Arthur Smith continued to feed his best player out of Atlanta’s bye, as Bijan Robinson racked up 16/91/1 rushing and 3/32/1 receiving in a victory over the Saints. He’s seen 19+ touches in back-to-back games after hitting that threshold just twice in his first nine games. The Jets are giving up the fifth-most rushing YPG (107.2) and the sixth-most receptions per game (5.5) to RBs, per Brolley’s Week 13 Game Hub.

The biggest development for the Steelers in their first game in the post-Matt Canada era is that they apparently discovered it’s OK to throw the ball to the middle of the field, but they also continued to run the ball well, with Najee Harris running angry en route to a season-best 99 yards on the ground.

Over the last three games, the Steelers have their three highest non-scramble rush yard totals on the year, all coinciding with the insertion of mauling rookie RT Broderick Jones into a permanent role. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just allowed a season-high 226 non-scramble rush yards to the Rams. With our #2 Rush Grade of the week and the Steelers favored at home, it’s a great spot to keep using Najee and Jaylen Warren, per Dolan’s Week 13 Mismatch Report.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. Two low-owned options 👇️

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30%) - Carolina has allowed double digits to three of the last four defensive units they’ve faced. Even worse, they’ve given up at least three sacks in every contest since Week 5. This is a streamer’s dream.

Los Angeles Rams (7%) - Hosting the Browns used to seem scary. Now, it’s a steady diet of backup QBs and turnovers from Cleveland. Sunday saw the Browns allow four sacks, a safety, and three lost fumbles… and now the ghost of Joe Flacco is starting.

DFS

Wide Receiver Heaven

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) [23%] - Scott actually thinks he’s a good play this week, in a top-6 matchup against the Chargers… Last week, following the team’s bye, Stevenson hit a season-high in snap share (78%), carries (21), and XFP (19.0). He also earned 5 targets.

Over this span, he ranks 4th-best in target share (16.2%), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs… This is more or less the sort of usage Stevenson earned last year with Damien Harris banged up, and is more or less the sort of usage you were hoping for when you spent an early draft pick on him, per Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have the perfect matchup. The Commanders are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+11.5 FPG), allowing the 2nd highest aDOT (9.6), the most receiving TDs (28), 2nd-most receiving yards (3,330), and the 3rd-most yards after the catch (582), per Tribbey’s Week 13 DFS Study Hall.

In 5 healthy games with Minshew, Josh Downs averages 9.2 targets (~WR13), 16.1 XFP (~WR14), and 14.8 FPG (~WR16). And yet he’s only priced as the WR24, making him a screaming value. The matchup is more favorable for Pittman – Tennessee is something of a reverse slot funnel with slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting fully healthy – but Downs is one of the best values of the slate, per Tribbey’s Week 13 DFS Values.

Aiyuk will terrorize Philly. On the season, the Eagles deploy single-high at a 60% clip, top ten in the NFL. Brock Purdy drops back vs single-high 63% of the time so far in 2023, 2nd-most among starting QBs. WR Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) and TE George Kittle ($6,200) are SF’s top weapons vs single-high defenses this season:

Aiyuk’s 3.59 YPRR ranks 3rd out of 61 qualifiers. The Eagles also give up the 3rd-highest first-read pass rate to opposing offenses this year (71%). Aiyuk and/or Kittle have stronger value components and a bit more certainty on their side than their teammate Deebo Samuel ($6,200) who has yet to find some reliability, per Spanola’s Week 13 Coverage Shells.

TRADES & BETS

Matt Canada - Public Enemy #1

Kenny Pickett had a season-high 72.7% accurate throw rate in Week 12. His previous high was 47.8%. Pickett’s first week without Matt Canada, while not perfect, showed some promising results for the Steelers’ passing attack moving forward…his accurate throw rate was the 5th highest mark for a QB in a single week this season.

He looked more comfortable with the play calling, and he threw on his first read a season-high 88% of the time. All of this happened with his third-highest aDOT and second-highest deep throw rate, so the throws he was making were not purposely made easier by the new offensive coordinator, per Wecht’s Five Stats to Know From Week 12. 

Try to buy Puka Nacua on the low, who has a team-high 33% designed target share this season. Puka’s value is down a little right now, but it’s certainly not as down as Cooper Kupp’s value, which fell further in Week 12. We might be seeing Kupp’s demise right now, so Nacua could close out the season on a tear, per Hansen’s Week 13 Players to Trade/Trade For. 

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes IDP Prop bets for Week 13.

Props & Odds

Najee Harris (Pit) over 47.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel). Najee has hit 69+ yards in 3 of last 4 games and 53+ yards in 6 of last 9 games. ARI is allowing the 2nd-most rushing YPG (120.4) to RBs and is allowing the 3rd-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.90) on this week’s slate, per Brolley’s Week 13 Best Bets.

DeVonta Smith (Phi) over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). Smith has 99+ yards in 3 of last 4 games and AJ Brown could catch a shadow from Ward. Goedert is unlikely to play this week keeping the targets free - and SF giving up 13th-most receiving YPG (162.9) to WRs, per Brolley’s Week 13 Best Bets.

Evan Engram (Jax) over 4.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings). Engram has 5+ catches in 8-of-11 games and CIN is allowing the 2nd-most catches per game (6.4) to TEs…Freiermuth went for 9/120 receiving in this matchup last week, per Brolley’s Week 13 Best Bets.

📱 Tweets

Believe the hype… Devonta Smith should smash.

No way Flacco revitalizes Elijah Moore… right??

Need some DFS help? Jake’s got you covered.

INJURY REPORT

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risks for Week 13.

Aaron Rodgers believes that there’s no downside to returning this season, saying that if he gets reinjured, he’d have ample time to recover for next year. Edwin had some thoughts on Rodgers and how he’s pushing the boundaries:

Jonathan Taylor is hurt again. We discussed earlier why Moss should be a league winner moving forward, but here are some more details behind the mechanism of Taylor’s injury.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our Week 13 projections and rankings are accessible to FantasyPoints subscribers:

• 2023 Week 13 Projections

• Updated Dynasty Rankings

• DFS Projections

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