Welcome to another preseason edition of The Roundup.

With most leagues drafting the next few weeks, we’ve packed this newsletter with everything you need to prove you are better than your friends.

Training camp injuries are piling up: Treylon Burks, Kendre Miller, Joe Burrow, etc. There are also players coming off injury: Brock Purdy, Breece Hall and Javonte Williams. To draft or not to draft? Who is injury prone?

Thankfully, Edwin Porras (@FBInjuryDoc) released his Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook. One highlight includes his take on Keenan Allen, who is coming off a hamstring strain:

For this first time in his career, Edwin considers Keenan Allen sneaky risky.

The worst case scenario is 2020 Julio Jones (Jones fought through hamstring injuries until he couldn’t play anymore - his last season in Atlanta).

Since 2018, Keenan Allen is one of just two WRs aged 30+ to miss at least four games due to a hamstring strain. The other? Julio Jones, in 2020…

Keenan Allen is also entering Year 10, a year where a clear drop-off in production occurs (see Ryan Heath’s article on Age Curves). WRs in Year 10 regress to 77.2% of their career baseline production. If that typical regression were to take place, it would move Allen from a 16.7 PPR points per game baseline (last six years) down to 13.0 FPG this season.

You can find Edwin’s full guide and playbook - packed with insights like this - here. 

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

Overvalued

Players to Avoid

Players who are overdrafted or we do not want to draft at all in 2023.

“Drafting the right players” is the way to win in fantasy football, but avoiding the WRONG players is critical.

Overvalued players are those we aren’t drafting at their ADP, while avoid means we are not drafting at all.

Dak Prescott is overvalued. Dallas’ offensive line is older and had serious injury problems, while Dalton Schultz is now a Texan. With the aggressive Kellen Moore gone, Prescott’s typically high average depth of target could fall. Most concerning is Prescott’s lack of rushing production since his catastrophic leg injury in 2020: After averaging 4.0 FPG in rushing production in his first five seasons, it has plummeted to just 1.6 FPG the last two seasons.

Alvin Kamara is overvalued. Suspended for three games, Kamara has shown he isn’t a volume player. After seeing 220+ carries in each of the last two years (he never had over 195 in his first four seasons) he averaged just 4.8 yards per touch, compared to 6.2 YPT in his first four seasons.

While he should return to a featured receiver role despite Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, Kamara doesn’t have the same upside. He also has some of the worst TD equity of his career with 2022's TD leader (Williams) and goal line vulture Taysom Hill still in the fold.

DeAndre Hopkins is overvalued. We can’t get excited about a 31-year-old WR joining a new, run-centric offense with a declining starting QB and a rookie option waiting in the wings to take his job. Treylon Burks will also steal targets.

Read the full article to find out why De’Von Achane and D.J. Moore are overvalued and why we are avoiding Michael Thomas this season.

Underrated

League Winners, Targets & Values

The league-winning players we're targeting in 2023, including those undervalued in drafts.

Fantasy is a simple game: draft the right players. Easier said than done, but it starts with drafting values (mispriced at ADP), targets (priced fairly but valuable) and league-winners (mispriced with league title-potential).

Lamar Jackson is a League-Winner (QB6 ADP). The QB7 in FPG each of the past two years, Jackson finished as a top-10 weekly QB in just 46% of his starts since 2021. That was with snails-pace Greg Roman.

This season, Todd Monken’s offense will incorporate Air Raid passing concepts, and Jackson has never had more talent at receiver. Still one of the league’s most dynamic running quarterbacks entering 2023, Jackson finished behind only Justin Fields in rushing yards (764) by QBs despite missing the final five games. He’s averaging 9.0 FPG as a runner since becoming Baltimore’s full-time starter, which pairs well with elite passing game upside in 2023.

A.J. Dillon is a Value (RB32 ADP). Dillon has earned an absurd PFF rushing grade of 89.1 over the last two seasons, which bests Nick Chubb (85.7) and is almost identical to Tony Pollard (89.6) — both players who rank among the best all-time in career YPC.

And he’s a red-zone threat. Dillon has earned 52% of the Packers' inside-the-5-yard carries over the last two seasons, compared to just 27% for Aaron Jones. The rushing and red zone volume keep Dillon in the RB3 conversation - he’d jump into RB1 territory if Jones misses any time.

Brandon Aiyuk is a Target (WR29 ADP). After an incredible start as a rookie with 96 targets in just 12 games, good for 15.4 FPG (WR18), Aiyuk then found himself in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse to start 2021, averaging just 4.3 FPG on a 70% route share in his first six games.

Aiyuk earned his full-time role back after Week 8, averaging 13.1 FPG, and kept that full-time role in his third season, averaging 13.5 FPG (WR27) on an 86% route share. 2022 was also his most efficient season to date, logging career-high marks in YPRR (1.82) and passer rating (117.2) when targeted. It’s encouraging for his 2023 prospects that his usage slightly improved after the Christian McCaffrey trade: Aiyuk’s air yards share increased from 29% to 40%, while his target share jumped from 21% to 23%.

At a bare minimum, Aiyuk should match his 2022 production (WR27 by FPG), and there is a realistic case where he’s able to take another step forward entering his age-25 season.

Read the full article to find out why Garrett Wilson, Kyle Pitts and Jordan Addison are all League-Winners in 2023. 

Consistency Review

Production and Usage Metrics

Jake Tribbey uses standard deviation to break down the most and least consistent workloads and production from 2022.

You might have noticed that our best ball rankings look a lot different than our season-long projections. That’s intentional, and primarily due to one reason: week-to-week consistency.

Take Amari Cooper, for example. Cooper averaged 18.1 FPG at home in 2022 – a mark that would’ve made him the WR7 over the full season – but just 11.5 FPG on the road (WR38). He was either better than CeeDee Lamb, or slightly worse than Mecole Hardman, depending on the location.

Another example is 2021 A.J. Brown. Brown averaged 30.1 FPG in his three best games in 2021, but just 9.1 FPG in his other 10 games. Just like Cooper, 2021’s version of Brown offered elite-tier upside, but absolutely crushed you in terms of week-to-week consistency.

Week-to-week consistency and predictability is so important for fantasy football – especially in start/sit leagues. With all of that in mind, Jake wanted to look at 2022’s most- and least-consistent scorers in fantasy.

Production Consistency

Austin Ekeler was one of the top-10 most consistent players in fantasy for the 2nd consecutive year. 2022 was Ekeler’s best fantasy season to date, as he earned the 5th-most RB targets ever (127) en route to an RB1 finish (22.1 FPG).

It’s surprising that Ekeler (ADP: 7.3) isn’t in the RB1 conversation this season, with ADP greatly preferring Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 3.5).

Remember, Ekeler has a higher rate of top-10 weekly finishes (58%) than any other RB over the last two seasons. He scored over 30.0 fantasy points four times last season – twice as often as McCaffrey. And Ekeler’s floor was better; he recorded double-digit fantasy points in 94% of his games last year, while McCaffrey only hit that mark in 82% of his games with San Francisco.

And Austin Ekeler is not competing with Elijah Mitchell for touches.

Read the full usage article to find out why James Conner feels like the easiest bet on volume this season, and why Christian Watson is Jake’s favorite mid-round WR selection.

Usage Consistency

Jake’s second article focuses on the consistency of a player’s role (rather than his production). It might be even more valuable for fantasy purposes, because it’s more predictive, removing efficiency and touchdown luck from the equation.

Saquon Barkley was fantasy football’s most consistent player (by usage). This shouldn’t be surprising, Barkley led all RBs in snap share (81%), while ranking 5th among RBs in route share (51%), 6th in target share (16%), and 3rd in total touches (352). New York made a point of featuring him in every contest.

There is an argument that Barkley – not Bijan Robinson or Nick Chubb – should be fantasy’s RB3, granted it’s not one Jake fully agrees with.

Barkley has been one of the most win/loss-sensitive RBs in football, averaging +5.4 more FPG in wins (21.7 FPG) than losses (16.3). If we were to give the Giants the benefit of a great year (say, 11 wins), then we could project Barkley for ~19.8 FPG – a mark that would have been good for RB3 last season.

But he’s on a Giants team that DraftKings only gives a 50% chance of winning 8 games or more. Plus, the addition of Darren Waller could make New York (who attempted the 3rd-fewest passes in the red zone last year) more pass-heavy near the end zone, which would further hurt Barkley’s weekly expectation.

Barkley’s RB5 price tag feels fair, but if you expect a big year out of the Giants you should be aggressive in acquiring the veteran RB.

Read the full article to find out why Davante Adams is one of the most glaringly mispriced early-round players in all formats, but especially best ball.

Tweets

Maybe Rachaad White is the best RB sleeper this offseason?

Should we pump the brakes on Breece Hall?

Ok we really should pump the brakes on Breece Hall…

Dynasty Corner

Players to Steal

Players who we’re targeting without much fanfare this offseason. Grab them before anyone realizes what you’ve done.

Kyler Murray could be available for the first time. Kyler is recovering from a torn ACL while adjusting to a new coaching staff. While he might miss parts of the season, Kyler was the QB7 with 19.0 FPG last year, and if you remove the Week 14 game in which he got injured early, his 20.9 FPG would have been enough to rank him as the QB5, ahead of Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson.

Remember James Conner in 2018? Le’Veon Bell held out an entire season and Conner stepped into a full time role. While we can’t expect Josh Jacobs to sit out an entire year, Jacobs didn’t report for the start of training camp. The two sides failed to reach terms on a long-term contract, and he’s yet to sign his franchise tag. Jacobs also turned down a $12 million per year offer. Zamir White tied for the team-lead in carries without Jacobs in 2022, and would be the favorite to take over the ground game if Jacobs continues to sit out.

Marvin Mims was so coveted by Sean Payton that he hand-selected Mims despite having Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler on the roster. Mims shined at the 2023 NFL Combine, recording a 91st percentile 40-yard dash and a 91st percentile SPORQ Score.

Our Brett Whitefield believed Mims can be an immediate deep threat with the chance to develop into a great route runner. Denver’s depth chart has been thinned out since the draft with Patrick and Hamler now out of the mix, which gives Mims a much better chance to make an impact. And if you’re still not sold on Mims:

Read the full article to see why Jordan Love and Brock Purdy top our list of late-round QB finds.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com, which you can access for a limited-time discount using the code: ROUNDUP at checkout.

All our cheat sheets are ready for your upcoming drafts:

• Season-Long Cheat Sheet

• Top 200 Ranking Cheat Sheet

• Dynasty Draft Cheat Sheet

• Auction Values Cheat Sheet

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