Finding League-Winners

Anatomy of A League-Winner, Age Curves, Podcast Corner

Author

Sean Byrne
August 18, 2024

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  1. Anatomy of A League Winner 🔥

  2. Age Curves: When NFL Players Breakout 👀

  3. Draft Resources 👨‍🍳

  4. Podcast Corner 📺

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Anatomy of A League Winner

Scott Barrett Wins Your League

Bijan Robinson // John Bazemore, AP

An updated version of Scott Barrett’s award-winning macro look at how to win your fantasy football leagues in 2024.

Quarterback

QB is the deepest of the big four positions, while also offering the most parity.

Scott's strategy is to draft a late-round gem that he identifies, like Lamar Jackson in 2019, Jalen Hurts in 2021 or Anthony Richardson last year. If he misses on his key target, Scott is perfectly fine punting the position.

If you streamed QB every week, you'd end up with low-end QB1 production. Late round strategy is king.

Running Back

Highest-End RBs are the most valuable asset in fantasy football. Period. But the RB position is a mess.

There are fewer great RBs – the historic 2017 class is now past the age cliff, and the early-round RBs from the more recent draft classes have largely underwhelmed. All while bell cows appear to be a dying breed - inflating the value of the one's remaining.

Scott believes you could be fine if you partially punt on the RB position (if you play the waiver wire right), but his preference is to land an RB with legendary upside in the first and worry about RB2 later on.

Wide Receivers

Over the last two years, you were far better off going WR in the first round as opposed to RB, which Scott believes is proof of a shifting fantasy landscape.

There have never been this many top-tier WRs in the NFL. Ontop of that, WRs are breaking out earlier than ever, and the majority of these WRs are now entering what would be their typical peak seasons.

ADP has finally caught up to WR positional value, so it's harder to hit on key talent in the later rounds. In Scott's Draft Guide, you’ll find multiple WRs with a Round 2 grade who are currently being selected in Rounds 4-6 of your draft. For this reason, you can win your league with a RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB approach.

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Fantasy Football Age Curves

Breakouts vs Regression

Jaxon Smith-Njigba // Jennifer Buchanan, The Seattle Times

Ryan Heath examines the ideal ages for fantasy football production and learns when players decline.

There is a massive edge to be gained from understanding typical career arcs, whether it helps you find the next Breece Hall-level breakout or the next DeAndre Hopkins-level falloff… using Fantasy Points Data.

Running Backs

One breakout candidate? Tyjae Spears. As a rookie, spears shared the backfield with Derrick Henry, one of the best runners of a generation. But his passing down performance was elite, having the highest RB target share on 3rd/4th downs.

Tony Pollard should be a non-issue here. We don’t know for sure if Spears can win this job or how long it might take, but we do know Pollard is trending in the wrong direction. Spears looks like a perfect fit for Brian Callahan’s offense, and if he hits, he will be one of the highest-upside picks available in any draft.

Elite RBs continue to perform well through their Age-28 season. But starting with the Age-29 season is when a rapid drop in production is liable to occur. The odds of an RB in their 30s producing a difference-making fantasy season are astronomically low.

One falloff candidate? Alvin Kamara. Ryan is a little spooked here due to the signs of decline, averaging just .15 MTF/touch. The Saints also brought in Klint Kubiak as OC, moving away from Sean Payton’s RB friendly system. There’s not a lot of competition for touches here, but his ADP high-end RB2. Be weary.

Wide Receivers

WRs typically underwhelm as rookies, before making a big leap in their sophomore season. (WRs generally “break out” in Year 2 or Year 3). Unlike at RB, WRs gradually improve through Year 5, their best season on average. If a receiver hasn't broken out by year three, the chances are slim that they can emerge as a fantasy difference maker.

One breakout candidate? Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Despite Smith-Njigba’s incredible college profile that included arguably the most impressive age-adjusted season of all time, he had to take a backseat to Metcalf and Lockett.

They went more TE heavy on early downs, but on 3rd and 4th down, JSN ran a full time route share and led the team in first-read target share, ranking Top 10 among all WRs. He also ranked top 8 at the position in fantasy points per route run on the outside last year.

New OC Ryan Grubb likes his WRs, the cost is low and Ryan expects his production and and role to see a massive bump.

Starting at age 30, WR production falls below what elite players have averaged over their careers. The steepest decline comes at age 32, when elite fantasy seasons become exceedingly rare

One falloff candidate? Davante Adams. Though Adams turns 32 only days before our December 31 cutoff, the Age-32 season has been the end of several WRs’ fantasy stardom.

Adams averaged 15.6 FPG during his Age-31 season. Among six other WRs within our elite sample to average between 14-17 FPG at age 31, only Antonio Brown (in 8 games with the greatest QB of all time) eclipsed even 13.0 FPG at age 32.

Just as concerning is the presence of either Aidan O’Connell (ranked 28th of 33 qualifying QBs by catchable target rate last season) or Gardner Minshew (29th). Adams ranked just 16th at the position in FPG despite commanding the 2nd-most targets in the league last year, largely due to the inefficiency that comes with such a low catchable target rate. Adams is a clear avoid for Ryan.

For a breakdown on Wide Recievers, Tight Ends and full detail on the rest, read

📺 Podcast Corner

📱 Tweet of the Week

Scott x The Sopranos

What are the Commanders doing with Jahan Dotson?

A list of players Ryan Heath is fading due to age curves

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