Fantasy Points’ must-read insights:

1. Adam Schefter x Fantasy Points Podcast 🔥

2. Best Ball Guide 👀

3. Strength of Schedule breakdown 👨‍🍳

4. Weighted Opportunity 🥶

The Fantasy Points Podcast

Schefty x Fantasy Points

John ‘The Guru’ Hansen and Brian Drake host The Fantasy Points Podcast - they were joined by THE Adam Schefter. Some highlights:

Blake Corum: Schefter believes that the Rams prefer to keep Kyren Williams around 15 touches per game to protect his body and health over the long season, which is why Schefter believes they took Corum. Schefter expects Corum to be around 8-10 touches per game to take some of that load from Kyren, so keep an eye on Corum getting more work early in the season.

Drafting Rookies: While John believes we can take some risks on taking rookies high in fantasy drafts (if they have the right DNA), Schefter doesn’t like to take that risk. He believes we need to spend our high-value picks (R1, R2) on known quantities, so he notably stayed away from Bijan last year and will likely stay away from Marvin Harrisons second-round price tag this year. John has much less hesitations about Marvin Harrison.

Saquon Barkley: When discussing Jonathan Taylor vs Saquon Barkley, Schefter said he loves both of these players for 2024 but believes Saquon is primed for a big year. He’s running in an improved offense, behind the best offensive line he’s ever had - and Kellen Moore did a solid job with Tony Pollard two years ago.

Watch the full video below for more insight, including why Adam is fading George Pickens and is unsure about CMC as the clear number 1 pick.

Best Ball

Guru’s Underdog Draft Plan

John Hansen analyzes his favorite Underdog Fantasy best ball targets and strategies at each position, using Underdog ADP.

Quarterbacks - John believes the best practice is to target the top-heavy skill positions before considering a QB, meaning he won’t suggest taking a QB before the 3rd or 4th round.

One player he’s targeting? Anthony Richardson (ADP 55). He has the cheat code advantage as a young, running QB and we saw this play out last year before his injury. A full season of Richardson in a creative Indy offense with new weapons should be fun for fantasy managers.

Other targets - Jordan Love & J.J. McCarthy.

Running Backs - John sees four elite options at the top of drafts due to youth and versatility… Bijan Robinson (ADP 6), Breece Hall (ADP 8), Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 12), Jonathan Taylor (ADP 15). All four could be an anchor for your roster which negate the need to reach on RBs in R2 or R3.

One player he’s targeting? Rachaad White (52.5 ADP). He was John’s top RB target last season and ended up being one of the best values of the year. He had an elite showing last year and is still only the 14th RB off the board - while Underdog is only a .5 PPR format, White’s improved OL and weak backfield competition make him another smash play.

Other targets - David Montgomery, Zamir White, Chase Brown.

Wide Receivers - John prefers one of his top four ranked RBs over the likes of Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown - but he’d take CeeDee Lamb over all of them due to his mix of upside and floor.

John is targeting WRs in R2 & R3, with one of his top choices being Drake London (ADP 16). John believes London is in great shape with Kirk Cousins, thinking a 100-catch season is in reach. This is the best situation of London’s career.

Other targets - Devonta Smith, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson.

Tight Ends - With TJ Hockenson recovering from a late-season ACL injury, Kelce and Kittle aging and the potential for LaPorta to slow down his TD rate… John feels like the position is wide open this year, but there’s an obvious target for him.

Who is it? Trey McBride. John feels the addition of Marvin Harrison actually helps McBride, so now he has more room to breathe. From Week 8 last year, McBride had the 11th-highest first-read target percentage. He’s going in the 4th which can be pricey, but his ceiling is elite 2nd round production.

Other targets - Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Luke Musgrave.

2024 Top 250 Underdog Fantasy Rankings.

Read the full Guru’s 2024 Underdog Fantasy Best Ball Draft Plan for John’s full list of targets.

It’s best ball season, and we have you covered at Fantasy Points. If you’re looking to get involved in Best Ball at Underdog, using our code FANTASYPTS will get you a 50% deposit match of up to $250 in bonus cash AND a code for a $5 Fantasy Points subscription…we think there’s a lot of bang for your buck here.

2024 Schedule

Scott Barrett Breaks It Down

Scott Barrett breaks down the hardest & easiest schedules for fantasy football.

Strength of schedule means the difference between hot starts, slow starts, and high ceiling potential for players. We can measure this by using FPG over an opponent’s average in 2023.

Quarterbacks

Top 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Jordan Love (+1.06)

Bottom 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Joe Burrow (-.79)

Trending Up - Jared Goff doesn’t only have the 2nd-most improved strength of schedule, but he’ll also benefit from playing 14 of his 17 games in a dome. When Goff was in a dome in 2022-2023, he averaged 19.5 FPG (~QB6). When he was outdoors, he averaged 13.0 FPG (~QB28). The ceiling is there, especially if you can deploy him in a dome at home games, where he excels.

Read the full 2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Top 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Aaron Jones (+0.65)

Bottom 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Josh Jacobs (-0.53)

Trending Up - Rhamondre Stevenson offers significantly more upside than his RB20 ADP suggests - he’s either priced appropriately (if he’s in a committee) a league-winner (if given the bell cow role). In 2022, Stevenson was a CMC-like bell cow for a nine-week stretch, and he looked positioned to take over the backfield in 2023 before his injury. All of this, combined with his league-best strength of schedule (+0.68) makes him a phenomenal selection in Underdog drafts.

Read the full 2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Top 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Bears WRs (+2.83)

Bottom 5 Overall Schedule 2024 - Dolphins (-0.91)

Trending Up - The Bears wide receivers will be fascinating to watch this year, but Scott believes Keenen Allen will lead that room in targets. His ADP WR30 is far too low with his ability and their strength of schedule. He’s a target hog, one of the best separators in the league and has finished top-12 in FPG in each of his last seven seasons. Allen is a great value at cost.

Read the full 2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Wide Receivers

For a full breakdown per position, check out each position strength of schedule article from Scott - including the 2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Tight Ends.

Statistically Significant

Weighted Opportunity

Ryan Heath takes a look into weighted opportunity for RB’s.

Volume is all that matters for fantasy football running backs, but all opportunities is not the same. Targets, carries and red zone opportunities hold different fantasy point potential.

Christian McCaffrey - CMC might be the final bell-cow standing in today’s NFL. His 19.8 weighted opportunity per game (WO/G) in 2023 led all RBs, but it was only the 19th-best season of the past decade. This new-age NFL is different than the past, which is why CMC is special.

McCaffrey is the last RB with good supporting evidence to prove he’s still capable of 20.0+ WO/G. Other players like Kamara, Henry and Ekeler have all dipped below 17.0 WO/G, and young players like Breece and Bijan have yet to prove they can handle that workload… this makes CMC the clear first overall pick for 2024 fantasy drafts.

Bijan Robinson - If Bijan received two-thirds of the team's red zone carries, he would have ranked as the RB4. If he saw 75% of his backfields weighted opportunity, he would have been the RB1. With Arthur Smith out of the picture and the potential for more red zone opportunities (yes, Kirk Cousins, we like that), we could see a different Bijan in 2024. Most players also take their biggest leaps from year 1 to year 2.

There’s a lot to unpack in this detailed and heavily researched article… and Ryan teases that he feels ‘positive regression’ is a trap in fantasy football. I highly recommend you read the full article to learn more about the biggest RBs in fantasy football.

Read the full Statistically Significant: Weighted Opportunity.

Quick Hitters

• Love the fantasy football-inspired TV show The League? Watch this exclusive interview with the show’s creator on the Fantasy Football podcast.

• Loading up on bye-week knowledge? Find Joe Dolan’s 2024 NFL Bye Weeks article here.

• Want to stay up to date on OTA news? Read Tom Brolley’s 2024 NFL OTA News Tracker.

• Checking out Week 1 lines to see if you want to bet now or hold? Read Tom Brolley’s 2024 NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report.

• Keeping track of 2024 NFL futures? Read Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: 2024 NFL Futures.

• Trying to study up on more NFL coverages? Read Mark Garcia’s NFL Coverage Bible: Broad Coverages.