I can almost smell football. All of my fantasy group chats are popping off, drafts are being scheduled and the hot takes are flying…we’re so close. This newsletter is going to give you a massive edge on your league-mates with data they can’t find anywhere else.

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Ryan Heath’s Must-Draft Players

Ryan Heath breaks down his favorite players to draft and the best strategies for selecting them in 2025 fantasy football drafts

Quarterbacks

🏆 Must Draft: Drake Maye (QB, Patriots)

• Why Ryan likes him: Already produced back-end QB1 numbers as a rookie (18.7 FPG), elite scrambler with rushing upside (35.2 YPG on the ground), and now set to see far more designed runs under a coaching staff with a history of unleashing mobile QBs. The Patriots project for more competitive games and points scored this season.

• Strategy: Don’t reach for other QBs — just wait and scoop Maye late as your QB1. He’s the cheat code value of drafts.

🔥 Secondary: Jayden Daniels (QB, Commanders)

• Why Ryan likes him: Averaged 24.4 FPG in fully healthy games (best ever for a rookie QB), now has major O-line upgrades and new weapons (Deebo Samuel), making him a legit contender for overall QB1.

• Strategy: Great value on Sleeper/Yahoo where his ADP is early 3rd, but don’t overdraft him on ESPN if it means passing on elite WR/RB options.

💎 Third: Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles)

• Why Ryan likes him: One of fantasy’s safest league-winners thanks to rushing TDs (tush push) and designed runs. Has historically crushed as a Round 3–4 hyper-mobile QB, and the Eagles’ tough schedule could even force more passing upside.

• Strategy: Draft Hurts when RB/WR values in early rounds are gone — at his 39.0 ADP he’s often the best available bet for ceiling.

Bottom Line: Wait on QB and target Drake Maye late as your QB1, but if you don’t want to wait, pivot to elite upside with Jayden Daniels early or safe league-winning production from Jalen Hurts in Round 3–4.

Running Backs

🏆 Must Draft: De’Von Achane (RB, Dolphins)

• Why Ryan likes him: Already produced elite RB1 usage as a receiver last year (3rd in expected fantasy points) despite poor O-line play, and now Miami rebuilt the interior blocking. He has league-winning upside, whether through rushing efficiency or heavy screen-game involvement.

• Strategy: Smash him in Round 2 (illegal value there), or take him late Round 1 on ESPN where WRs will still be strong in Round 2.

🔥 Secondary: Chase Brown (RB, Bengals)

• Why Ryan likes him: Closed 2024 with bell-cow usage (22.4 XFP/G, 5.4 targets per game — Kamara-like receiving role). Moss is gone, Bengals are comfortable leaning on him, and the workload screams top-6 RB if sustained.

• Strategy: Perfect target from early draft slots — lets you go WR heavy in Round 1, then scoop Brown in Round 2 without losing RB ceiling.

💎 Third: Omarion Hampton (RB, Chargers)

• Why Ryan likes him: First-round rookie with elite athletic comps (only Saquon in past decade tested better), legit pass-catching chops, and Najee Harris already fading. Clear path to bell-cow work in an offense ready to ride him.

• Strategy: Auto-pick in Round 4, even ahead of Big-4 QBs/George Kittle, as a potential rookie breakout league-winner.

🎯 Other Targets (Upside + Zero RB builds)

• RJ Harvey (RB, Broncos) — Draft capital + Payton’s history (Bush, Ingram, Kamara) point to receiving-heavy upside. ESPN steals in Round 7.

• TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots) — Strong pass-catcher in McDaniels’ RB-heavy target scheme, could overtake Rhamondre quickly. Yahoo! value a round later than Harvey.

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Jaguars) — Explosive Day 3 rookie with screen-game upside, already running with starters in camp. Reach 1–2 rounds early as a stash with massive late-season potential.

• Tony Pollard (RB, Titans) — Efficiency metrics back to elite, offense should be far better with Cam Ward. Ideal RB2/Zero-RB anchor in Round 7–8, especially with Spears hurt.

• Jaylen Warren (RB, Steelers) — Explosive 1A candidate who could seize 12–15 touches per game. Fits best on Zero-RB builds as stable floor with upside.

Bottom Line: Target Achane as your Round 1–2 anchor, pivot to Chase Brown in Round 2 if you start WR-heavy, and lock in Omarion Hampton in Round 4 as your upside swing. Swing for high upside players like Harvey, Henderson and Tuten late.

Wide Receivers

🏆 Must Draft: Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Panthers)

• Why Ryan likes him: Rookie WRs drafted in the top-10 historically smash, and McMillan walks into a barren WR room with a coach (Dave Canales) who funnels easy, high-volume targets to his X WR. Low-end WR1 volume right away is possible.

• Strategy: Draft McMillan aggressively across all sites. On Sleeper/ESPN, take him over nearby RBs like RJ Harvey; on Yahoo! you can often get both since McMillan goes later.

🔥 Secondary: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, Jaguars)

• Why Ryan likes him: Historic rookie efficiency even while hurt, now paired with an OC who promises to run the offense through him with slot work, screens, and slants. His usage could resemble a hybrid of Evans + Godwin — with overall WR1 upside.

• Strategy: Smash in Round 2 (goes late-2nd on ESPN, which is highway robbery). Ryan ranks him as a Round 1 talent. Ideal pairing if you grab a Round 1 stud and then Thomas or Achane in Round 2.

💎 Third: Rashee Rice (WR, Chiefs)

• Why Ryan likes him: Elite efficiency in Year 1, producing like a WR1 down the stretch. KC’s passing attack looked broken without him, and Mahomes leans heavily on him.

• Strategy: Suspension risk now mid-season (bad timing for fantasy playoffs) — but still a discount WR2/3 value on ESPN/Yahoo!, going after names in the “blob” tier. On Sleeper, only take if you’re already strong at RB.

🎯 Other Targets

• Emeka Egbuka (Bucs): Free roll with backloaded rookie upside, could thrive if Godwin misses time.

• Jordan Addison (Vikings): Suspension makes him cheap; arbitrage DeVonta Smith with WR1 upside if Jefferson misses games.

• Josh Downs (Colts): Elite target earner, only QB play held him back; a sneaky WR3 you can draft late.

• Jauan Jennings (49ers): Injury/holdout risk keeps ADP suppressed, but flashed WR8 upside when SF starters missed time.

• Calvin Ridley (Titans): Offense underrated, showed WR1-2 level volume with Mason Rudolph — strong WR3 buy.

• Luther Burden (Bears): Long-term stash, could own Ben Johnson’s slot role later in the year.

Bottom Line: Load up on upside-heavy young WRs early (McMillan, Thomas, Rice) and backfill with cheap, ascending talents (Addison, Downs, Jennings) — leaving you deep at the position while opponents overpay for the “blob” tier.

Read the full article for more must-draft players, late round sleepers, the full tight end list & more.

ASS Is Back

Breaking down Fantasy Points’ A.S.S metric, including its correlation to actual fantasy production and predictiveness.

What is the Average Separation Score?

• Purpose: ASS measures how effectively a player creates separation from defenders when it matters, rather than simply how open they happen to be due to coverage breakdowns or design

• Grading Scale: Every route where separation matters is charted and graded from 2 to +4:

  • –2: Receiver is knocked entirely off route.

  • –1: Receiver is tightly covered, requiring exceptional QB precision.

  • 0: No opportunity for separation (e.g., screens, jet sweeps, checkdowns).

  • +1: A step of separation.

  • +2: Multiple steps.

  • +3: Extreme separation.

  • +4: Wide open due to a defensive breakdown—but only scored +4 if the defender messed up, not the receiver’s doing

• Why It Matters: It’s more predictive of future fantasy production than ESPN’s Open Score or Next Gen Stats' average separation, because ASS is rooted in charting all routes, not just ones where the receiver is targeted.

2024 Leaders & 2025 Breakouts

🔑 Key Takeaways on PASS

• PASS is an evolution from ASS, and highlights true separation skill → independent of QB, volume, or production - making it great for evaluating players that change teams, change QBs or change systems.

• Elite fantasy WRs almost always grade well → 15 of 2024’s top-24 FPG WRs also ranked top-24 in PASS (Jefferson, Chase, Nabers, etc.).

• Underperformers in fantasy often pop in PASS → meaning they may be buy-low breakout candidates if their situations improve.

👀 2025 WR Insights from PASS

• DeVonta Smith (ADP ~WR28)

  • Ranked top-5 in PASS but overshadowed by A.J. Brown & low Eagles pass volume (31st in dropbacks).

  • In 2 games without Brown since 2022: averaged 17.8 FPG (~WR7) on WR3-level target share.

  • Takeaway: A consistent WR2 with sneaky WR1 upside if Brown or Goedert miss time. 🚀

• Garrett Wilson (ADP ~WR16)

  • Elite separator; PASS loves him.

  • Crushed with Rodgers early in 2024 (NFL leader in targets, 21.1 XFP/G through 6 weeks) until Adams arrived.

  • Takeaway: Skill isn’t the problem, QB is. Ceiling capped unless Fields takes major step. ⚠️

• Jordan Addison (ADP ~WR37)

  • Top-24 PASS; produced ~WR14 in healthy games.

  • Vikings offense still red-zone heavy, and Addison saw 0.8 end zone targets per game (13th-most) in 2024.

  • Takeaway: Huge value mispriced at WR37. Could be a WR2 floor with WR1 ceiling if Jefferson/Hockenson misses time. 📈

• Zay Flowers (ADP ~WR31)

  • Back-to-back top-6 PASS ranks, showing elite separation.

  • Ravens’ low pass volume (fewest in NFL last 2 years) hides his ceiling.

  • Takeaway: A great separator stuck in a run-heavy offense, but WR2 upside in shootouts. 🎯

• Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP ~WR18)

  • Ranked top-24 in PASS as a rookie despite modest YPRR (1.74).

  • Generational separator, but capped by Kyler’s mediocre accuracy (36.8% on 10+ yard throws) & McBride’s volume.

  • Takeaway: Talent screams breakout, but situation screams WR2. Dynasty buy-low if 2025 disappoints. 🏆

👉 Draft Strategy Angle:
PASS confirms who’s truly good at football. Target undervalued separators with paths to more volume (Smith, Addison, Flowers). Be cautious on elite separators stuck with bad QBs or capped schemes (Wilson, Doubs, Bateman).

Read the full article to see more ASS & PASS player breakdowns and understand how you can use these models to dominate your fantasy football leagues in 2025.

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