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…which means fantasy football draft season is just around the corner!

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Brain Trust

Favorite Best Ball Stacks

The Fantasy Points team highlights its favorite NFL teammate combinations to select in 2025 Underdog best ball drafts.

Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes + TE Travis Kelce + any WR

ADP: Mahomes QB6 (85.7), Kelce (98.1)

• Among QBs with 100+ dropbacks in 2024, Mahomes’ 6.7 average depth of target was higher than only Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Gardner Minshew.
  
  So why is Joe Dolan prioritizing this stack?
  
  For the first time in forever, they’re cheap. That includes Kelce, who is now available as late as the 10th round in some Underdog drafts.
  
  We have Mahomes projected as the QB6 — right in line with his ADP — and 5th in the NFL in pass attempts. With better health this year from Rashee Rice, along with a more experienced Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs’ offense will be its most explosive in quite some time. And investing in it is the cheapest it’s been since Mahomes took over as starter in 2018.

Los Angeles Rams: QB Matthew Stafford + WRs Puka Nacua & Davante Adams

ADP: Stafford QB24 (158.8 Overall), Nacua (7.8), Adams (30.8)

• The Greatest Show on Turf (Part 2) looks poised to be one of the league’s better offenses in 2025, featuring one of the best WR pairings in football. Nacua averaged 9.6 targets per game last year, while Adams has earned 140+ targets in five straight seasons. They’ll challenge for the highest consolidated target share between two teammates in the NFL.
  
  Although Nacua and Adams require premium investments, Stafford’s low ADP offers flexibility: you can still invest in an elite QB early, or build a three-QB roster with multiple solid options from QB2 land.

San Francisco 49ers: QB Brock Purdy + TE George Kittle / WR Jauan Jennings

ADP: Purdy QB11 (103.4), Kittle (45.7), Jennings (63.9)

• Purdy has finished as the QB2 and the QB9 by fantasy points per dropback over the past two seasons, one of the most predictive stats at the position. He’s underratedly mobile, too, having averaged more fantasy points per game on scrambles than Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts last year (2.8).
  
  The departure of Deebo Samuel and the injury to Brandon Aiyuk have resulted in the most-enticing prices we’ve seen on this offense in years, yet Purdy still produced top-5 QB numbers in games without them last year.
  
  Meanwhile, a lack of other weapons points to greatness for Kittle, who’s averaged 19.6 and 16.3 FPG in six and nine games each without Samuel and Aiyuk (respectively) over the past three years. As for Jennings, he ranked top-8 among WRs in FPG (17.9) and first-read target share (33.7%) across nine games that either Aiyuk or Samuel missed last season.

Read the full article to see why Graham Barfield is buying into the Ben Johnson era in Chicago.

Favorite Late-Round Best Ball Picks

The Fantasy Points staff identifies its favorite players to draft in the last few rounds of 2025 Underdog fantasy best ball contests.

WR Keenan Allen (FA)

ADP: 198.8

• Allen has finished as a top-12 WR in FPG in 7 of his last 8 seasons, including top-3 in 2023. He missed the mark last year, finishing as fantasy's WR33 (12.4), but that placed him directly in between Round 2 draft pick Tyreek Hill (12.8) and Round 5 pick Zay Flowers (12.3). It was a disappointing year, sure, but Allen is still far from cooked.
  
  Last year, he led all Bears receivers in separation win-rate (14.7%, 24th-most of 78-qualifying WRs) and — if excluding screens — fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Even at age 32, Allen only got better as the season progressed, finishing as a top-12 WR in total fantasy points from Week 12 on (averaging 18.0 FPG). He’s way too talented to be forced into retirement. Take him now before he signs with a contender in August.

RB Will Shipley (PHI)

ADP: 180.2

• Shipley is the favorite to beat out A.J. Dillon for the handcuff role behind Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a staggering 482 touches during Philly’s Super Bowl run. Dillon isn’t guaranteed to make the roster, either, as he missed all of last season because of a neck injury — and the Eagles gave him just $167,500 in guaranteed money.

WR Elic Ayomanor (TEN)

ADP: 212

• Ayomanor and Tetairoa McMillan are the only WRs in this rookie class who accounted for 33% or more of their team’s receiving yardage at age 20 and 21 in each of their final two college seasons. Ayomanor racking up 125 receptions, 1844 yards, and 12 TDs across 24 games with terrible QB play at Stanford was a remarkable feat. And it’s all the more impressive when you consider that he just started playing football a few years ago.
  
  The Titans’ depth chart behind Calvin Ridley is wide open, so expect Ayomanor — who graded out as Brett Whitefield’s WR2 based on film study — to take full advantage:

Read the full article to see Ryan Heath’s case for Devaughn Vele to emerge in Denver.

TE Sleepers

The Fantasy Points staff breaks down its favorite 2025 fantasy football tight ends to select in the back half of fantasy drafts.

Jake Ferguson (DAL) — TE15

• Dallas’ TE1 has ranked top-10 at the position in total targets in 9 of the last 10 seasons. Over Ferguson’s last 14 games with an active Dak Prescott, he averages 7.4 targets per game, 54.8 YPG, 12.4 XFP/G, and 12.8 FPG (PPR) or 10.0 FPG (half-PPR). Among all TEs last season, those numbers would have ranked 5th-, 4th-, 5th-, 7th-, and 7th-best.

Hunter Henry (NE) — TE21

• Across Drake Maye’s 10 full games, Hunter Henry led Patriots receivers in all of the following stats: targets per game (5.9), receiving YPG (44.9), first-read target share (21.1%), catchable targets (50), end zone targets (4), and expected fantasy points per game (10.5). He also ranked as the TE12 by Underdog FPG over this span. And the last time Henry played under returning OC Josh McDaniels in 2021, he tied for the 6th-most end zone targets among all players (12), scored 9 TDs, and finished as the TE13 by Underdog FPG (8.2).

Mason Taylor (NYJ) — TE23

• Taylor leaves LSU as their all-time leader in receptions (129) and yards (1,308) among TEs. He just turned 21 years old this year.
  
  The Jets have absolutely nothing at WR behind Garrett Wilson, with Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard competing for #2 duties. In fantasy football, we want our TEs to be the #1 or #2 target on their team, and Taylor is walking into an opportunity to potentially be the Jets’ second target.

Read the full article to see why Joe Dolan and John Hansen think Liam Coen’s offense could make Brenton Strange a value.

Market Watch

Elite TE Debate: McBride vs. Bowers

Ryan Heath uses years of stats to determine if Trey McBride or Brock Bowers is the better 2025 fantasy football pick at ADP... or if neither is.

For years, Travis Kelce (and Rob Gronkowski before him) have carried fantasy football teams to victory. But with Kelce likely well past his prime, does Heath believe Brock Bowers or Trey McBride is capable of replicating his best seasons?

The Case for McBride:

• He is perhaps the biggest positive TD regression candidate in all of fantasy football — per our expected TD model, a player with his targets (based on their depth and location) should have scored ~5.8 more receiving TDs than he did in 2024

• He commanded the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history (33.6%)

• He has the 2nd-easiest and 2nd-most improved schedule among any TE

The Case for Bowers:

• He just averaged the most FPG of any rookie TE since the Vietnam War while setting the rookie receptions record (at all positions)

• If we remove the four games from his rookie season in which 3rd-stringer Desmond Ridder played significant snaps, he’d have averaged 17.3 FPG — within spitting distance of Travis Kelce’s league-winning 18.0 FPG benchmark

• Last year, Geno Smith ranked top-5 in accuracy when targeting the middle of the field and 2nd-best in target share to the slot (37.5%)

So, are either of them worth their ADP?

In short, not really.

Despite Bowers having the higher ADP, we project McBride to be the TE1 this year. This is largely because we expect the Raiders in 2025 (under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, who went against his NFL legacy by calling one of the slowest-paced offenses at Ohio State last year) to be significantly more run-heavy than the version we saw in 2024.

But even McBride doesn’t offer a ton of league-winning upside at his current ADP.

No TE has hit a “league-winning” (>55%) playoff rate while having an ADP inside the top-40 picks since 2017 — except for Travis Kelce. That’s despite seven other unique TEs (many across multiple years) being selected in that range.

Also, consider that the top of the TE position hasn’t provided much value over replacement in the last decade-and-change without Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski. But most importantly, points scored by RBs and WRs lead to just as many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as those from TEs. In other words, you aren’t any more likely to win a matchup after your TE scored 20 fantasy points than you would be if your WR had scored 20 fantasy points.

Heath expects he’ll get exposure to McBride on Underdog if he falls past his ADP into the flat tier of WRs in the middle of Round 3, but he’ll likely have none in managed redraft if early prices hold.

Read the full article for more information and a deep dive into McBride and Bowers’ best ball value — or lack thereof.

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