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Less than a year ago, the most important NY Jets QB update was Zach Wilson’s alleged affair with an older woman. Thankful for you, Aaron Rodgers, and not just for the Jets best ball stacks and Sundae Conversations.

And thank you for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

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The Guru’s Best Ball Draft Plan

John Hansen explains how he’s attacking each position in Underdog Best Ball drafts in 2023. Not only is this the Guru’s optimal strategy, but he also provides his list of optimal picks based on ADP, upside and downside.

Throwing the Game

The Quarterbacks

Building off last year’s success (he had then-later-round QBs Jalen Hurts & Joe Burrow as his top targets), Hansen “might be out” again on high-end QBs... well, except for Joe Burrow.

Trevor Lawrence: With 50 fantasy points per season using his legs, and his passing numbers set to take off in year two of Doug Pederson’s tenure, Lawrence is the perfect fantasy pick because he runs (but not enough to significantly impact his passing numbers) and he’s capable of hanging with his more expensive contemporaries.

Top QB target and value pick of the year? Deshaun Watson. Unless he’s unable to regain something close to his 2020 form (23.52 FPPG), he’s a slam dunk with a year under his belt and an improved supporting cast for the Browns.

QB2 options: Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy. If Purdy starts 17 games and keeps his TD rate from 2022 (7.6%, tops in NFL), he’ll throw for 39 TDs this season. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing TDs in 2022 with 41…

See John’s five-favorite QB picks based on ADP in the full article.

Running it Back

The Plan at RB

The good news at RB is that there’s depth. The early-round surge at WR and QB is pushing RBs down the board.

The real value is in rounds 4-9. Hansen isolated ten options in this range as of Mid-May. “I like this list so much that I’m even willing to go Zero RB through the first three rounds, which I’ve never done in my life.”

J.K. Dobbins (ADP: 58.3). It’s ironic that Dobbins’ ADP is the lowest it’s ever been (or close) because THIS is the year to draft him. After a slow start upon returning, Dobbins’ numbers soared to 7.0 YPC and 4.23 YAC after week seven. Dobbins is looking to earn the biggest workload of his NFL career after a strong finish to 2022.

Dameon Piece (61.4). Expect Pierce to see a solid 17-18 touches a game for a Texans team that has upgraded personnel at all key positions, including the coaching staff.

Rachaad White (77.2). His situation isn’t ideal, but he’s the guy in Tampa. White’s looking at 80+ targets and 225+ carries and we have him averaging 14.3 PPG with that usage. That would have been good for RB10/11 last year, yet White is being drafted as RB25.

Alexander Mattison (102.9). None of the Vikings insiders that Hansen spoke with believe that Dalvin Cook will be on the team this year — the fact that Mattison was re-signed and paid well as an UFA is the biggest sign of a major change in the Vikings’ backfield.

The Guru has five other top RB targets, including an Eagles RB - read the full article to find out who.

The Pass-Catcher Plan

Young WRs

One rule for 2023 Underdog drafts: You must use one of your first two picks on a WR. Be willing to start your drafts WR-WR, since there are a plethora of appealing backs available in rounds 4-9.

You know Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams are good, but Hansen particularly likes Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave.

Through four rounds, Hansen recommends at least two WRs. Fourth rounders he likes include Drake London, Jerry Jeudy and Christian Watson.

This is the year Jerry Jeudy is unleashed with Sean Payton in town and solid chemistry built last year with Russell Wilson. Jeudy gets open with the best of them, ranking as WR11 in YPRR (2.35) when lined up on the perimeter.

Sneaky-value, later round picks:

Jordan Addison (ADP: 71.3). Playing alongside Justin Jefferson will get Addison the best matchups on a weekly basis, and could lead to a Chris Olave-type season. Olave posted 72/1042/4 in 2022; Hansen’s projecting 69/945/4 for Addison.

Diontae Johnson (78.9). He didn’t score a single TD last year and OC Matt Canada still stinks, but Diontae has averaged 153 targets/season the past three years - only five WRs saw more in 2022. Diontae is a go-to guy for a reason. His current WR39 ADP on Underdog is too low. As much as I love George Pickens, Diontae is a better overall player.

Elijah Moore (106). Moore managed a seven-game run as a rookie in ‘21 with 35 grabs for 525 scrimmage yards with 6 TDs, good for a WR4 standing and WR10 in FPG. A lot of that production was a product of Moore’s talent and ability to win quickly, so moving on to the Browns with Watson was ideal. The Browns LOVE Moore, who could take over as the top wideout in 2024 if Cooper (and his $20m per year contract) is pushed off the roster.

Read the full article to see the Guru’s plans for TEs.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

How to Draft and Stream D/ST

Ryan Heath explains how to draft and stream defenses in fantasy football, and the best D/ST to draft in 2023.

Sacks and turnovers are typically used to project D/ST scoring, but these metrics lack stability and correlation from year to year.

Nothing comes close to Vegas win totals when it comes to projecting D/ST scoring. Plenty of stats are related to D/ST fantasy points during the same season, but none of those are stable from year to year. Vegas is so good at predicting win percentage - we should trust the billions of dollars flowing into sportsbooks.

D/ST: To Stream or Not to Stream? If you don't manage to draft a top-3 defense, feel comfortable playing the matchups. Betting odds help identify teams expected to have the fewest points scored against them in a given week, providing a starting point for streamers. Additionally, metrics like QB Pressure Rate Over Expected (QBPROE) can be used.

Who to draft in 2023? Focus on teams with high win totals, strong performances in fantasy points, EPA/play and point differential from the previous year. Early-season matchups are crucial since most defenses will be dropped for streaming options.

Tier 1 - Draft & Hold: 

1. Eagles D/ST

2. 49ers D/ST

3. Cowboys D/ST

4. Bills D/ST

Tier 2 - Draft & See:

5. Ravens D/ST

6. Bengals D/ST

7. Chiefs D/ST

8. Jaguars D/ST

If you miss on the above: The New Orleans Saints are 3.5-point home favorites in Week 1 against a Tennessee Titans offense that finished 2nd-worst in QBPROE allowed last season. They follow it up with matchups against the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — three teams with plenty of questions on offense heading into 2023.

Read the full article here.

Rankings!!

Graham Barfield’s 2023 Underdog Top-240 Best Ball 0.5 PPR Rankings updated May 19:

Damien Harris is the best early-down and short-yardage RB the Bills have had in the Josh Allen era and he’s a great fit with James Cook’s skillset. I absolutely want Harris in my draft plan in every best-ball league as an RB3/4 target. Harris has 8-10 TD upside if the Bills are serious about running Josh Allen less.

Scott Barrett’s 2023 Rookie Dynasty Rankings, with Marvin Mims at 7th 👀 overall.

🎤 Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl Executive Director, and Scott Barrett break down NFL rookies and discuss how they will fare during their first NFL seasons (podcast)

🎤 Scott Barrett’s Post 2023 NFL Draft press conference is now live, where Scott looks for a fantasy-focused “vibe check” on how teams feel about their new rookies (podcast)

🎤 How to Draft and Stream Fantasy Defenses - Two Point Stance Podcast (podcast)

Tweets

If you’re not drafting Aaron Rodgers, why do you hate winning?

Chris Wecht with a good example of how Kyle Pitts can’t catch a break.

Dynasty Corner

Intro to Dynasty: How to Value Assets by Cooper Adams explains the macro concepts and philosophical approaches to dynasty that will make you better than your leaguemates in most situations. One framework below:

• Asses players by intrinsic (current production) and extrinsic (range of future production) values.

  • Example: Drake London is a 21-year-old WR who averaged 12.7 expected fantasy points per game last season. Very simple breakdown: 12.7 XFP/G equates to low intrinsic value, age-21 WR with high draft capital equates to high extrinsic value.

  • If you’re win-now, intrinsic value is more important. Find another owner who values extrinsic value.

• Looking at other managers' rosters to grasp how they approach value. We all have that manager in our league with a starting lineup filled entirely with promising second and third-year players — guess which manager you should target when you want to pivot off a young WR?

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. See you next week!

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