What better way to start your Sunday than with another edition of the Roundup and some good news from Buffalo?

Damar Hamlin was a full participant at practice with his teammates for the first time since going into cardiac arrest in January. Hamlin was cleared to resume playing and is attending the team's voluntary workout program.

Dalvin Cook was finally released by the Vikings, giving Alexander Mattison owners (false?) hope. After the two sides couldn’t meet on a restructured contract, and no one would trade for Cook, the Vikings were left with no other option but to release their star RB.

Per Adam Schefter, the Dolphins and Broncos are two teams expected to consider signing Cook. There likely will be others, but those two have been “monitoring Cook for weeks”.

His departure allows the Vikings to feature Alexander Mattison as their lead back while 2022 fifth-rounder from UNC Ty Chandler is penciled in as the new backup. DeWayne McBride, the rookie 7th rounder, is also waiting in the wings. In this article, Graham Barfield explains why expecting Alexander Mattison to just step in and become what Cook once was is extremely foolish.

As for us, we’re here to give you early Fathers Day gift ideas. Gifts that’ll put you in the good books for months (Yes, we have a promo code for you): DADROCK10 - valid until June 25.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

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MOST POPULAR

Underdog Best Ball Rosters

Graham Barfield uses years of Underdog Fantasy data to determine the ideal strategy for selecting RBs and WRs in 2023 Best Ball drafts.

More than 600,000 teams were drafted in Underdog Fantasy BBM2 and BBM3 in the last two years, giving us a treasure trove of data to dive into.

To have a chance to win in Best Ball Mania 4, you have to advance in three consecutive non-correlated tournaments just to make it to Week 17.

The regular season is Tournament #1 (2 out of 12 in league advance), then the Quarterfinals (1/16 advance), and then the Semifinals (1/16 advance). And to win the ultimate top prize, you then have to post the score of a lifetime to beat the final group of 441 competitors.

Your single team odds of making it to the 2023 BBM4 finals in Week 17 – if everyone shared the same skill level – are .00065%. Which is why you’ll want Graham’s help.

BESTBALL

RB Construction

Before he even considers who to take, these are the rules Graham follows in every draft when it comes to RBs:

1. Over the last two years, RB-RB starts in Rounds 1-2 have performed extremely poorly relative to any other early-round strategy in BBM2 and BBM3.

2. As Scott Barrett outlined expertly in his Underdog Strategy Primer last offseason, drafting 5-6 RBs is most optimal. And the field knows it.

3. The Superhero RB strategy – where you take one stud RB1 early and stream your RB2 slot with a mix of 4-5 mid- and late-round runners - has absolutely smashed on Underdog over the last two years.

Yet only 12.9% of the field uses a Superhero RB strategy…

This year’s ADP setup is unique, with four runners that typically have Round 1 archetypes – Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, and Tony Pollard – all going in the second round in the vast majority of drafts.

Graham’s Late-Round RB Targets

Devin Singletary may not be great in one particular area of his game, but he can play all three downs well. Singletary handled at least 180 touches in four-straight seasons in Buffalo.

Jeff Wilson is the only runner in Miami who can handle lead runner volume over the course of the season, yet he’s a distant RB3 by ADP in this backfield. At worst, Wilson is a better bet than the 31-year-old Mostert to lead Miami in carries.

Tyjae Spears might be a bad bet in dynasty leagues, that doesn’t mean he won’t have a role in 2023. Spears is easily the most talented RB the Titans have had behind Henry in years and is more than capable of working in as a great complementary back.

Jerome Ford will, at worst, get 90-110 carries as the change-up to Nick Chubb. At best, Ford will be trusted with 18-20 touches in any game Chubb might miss.

Last year, Kareem Hunt ranked 21st in yards after contact and 17th in missed tackles forced per carry out of 42 qualifying RBs with 100+ carries. If I’m throwing a dart at any unsigned RB in Round 18 – it’s him.

Read the full RB article to see why Gus Edwards is also on Graham’s list

BESTBALL

WR Construction

Before he even considers who to take, these are the rules Graham has in mind in every draft when it comes to WRs:

1. Just 13.7% of the field starts their draft WR-WR despite that being the optimal approach on Underdog over the last two years.

2. You need at least four WRs in Rounds 1-9 – yet 11.4% of the field makes the mistake of only taking three WRs before Round 10.

3. Last year, 69.5% of BBM2 entrants selected between 7-8 WRs in a display of somewhat efficient market drafting. Entrants that drafted six or nine WRs struggled comparatively.

4. Teams that took three WRs and one RB in Rounds 1-6 have generated an incredible +29.6% higher likelihood of winning their leagues (1st or 2nd in the regular season) relative to teams that also drafted three WRs but took two RBs.

Graham’s Late-Round WR Targets

These are the WRs Graham has ranked significantly ahead of ADP in the late rounds to finish stacks or target as values. All WRs in this section have an ADP of 145+ overall.

Alec Pierce is the exact type of WR5/6 Graham wants – a second-year WR keyed into a larger role that thrives off of big plays deep downfield. The hope is a handful of 4/110/1 spike games.

📈 If John Metchie is healthy, he is the most talented receiver on the Texans roster. While his other efficiency stats don’t pop off of the page, Metchie is sixth all-time among Alabama WRs in receiving yards per game (69.4) – just behind Jerry Jeudy (76.2) and ahead of Calvin Ridley (63.2) and Jaylen Waddle (58.8). Impressive company.

Chase Claypool was a productive receiver – even for his flaws – in Pittsburgh. He had two back-to-back 800+ yard & 100+ target seasons in 2020-21 and was actually averaging a career-high 61.9 yards per game in 2022 before getting traded. He has way more competition for snaps now, but you’re spending a 16th-round pick on a splash-play WR with a quarterback in Fields more than willing to take downfield shots.

Read the full WR article for insights on Rashid Shaheed and Michael Wilson.

OTA TRACKER

Rhamondre Szn in New England

Tom Brolley gathers the latest actionable fantasy football intel from spring OTAs and minicamps.

Tua Tagovailoa is taking proactive steps to protect himself in his fourth season: this includes a new helmet designed to protect QBs, bulking up and jiu jitsu training. If healthy, Tua’s current ADP (100, QB12) offers huge upside.

🔥 Rhamondre Stevenson is poised to become "the guy" after Damien Harris left to Buffalo. While LeGarrette Blount (2016) was the only RB in New England to top 300+ touches in the last 18 seasons, Stevenson became the clear #1 runner and receiver in New England (279 total touches in 2022) and now faces negligible competition (Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris, and James Robinson).

Gus Edwards “didn’t have a setback" after missing the first half of last season to recover from a torn ACL in 2021, and will be “fully ready” for training camp, per Ravens HC Jim Harbaugh. J.K. Dobbins skipped the voluntary section of OTAs and Baltimore didn’t touch its backfield this off-season; you can do worse than a dart throw at the Gus Bus at his ADP (189, RB59).

Titans rookie RB Tyjae Spears has been a “stand out” during OTAs and is regularly seen putting in extra work catching passes after practice. Titans OC Tim Kelly said that they’re planning to give Spears “as much as he can handle.” While unlikely to have standalone value behind King Henry, the rookie could cap Henry’s upside and may be a true handcuff despite Hassan Haskins’ presence. The rookie has received nothing but praise from the coaching staff.

The Tennessee Titans were the first visit for recently-cut receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Mike Vrabel was the DC in Houston back when Hopkins was making his bones, and the two have mutual respect and admiration.

Sam Howell (ADP199, QB28) has taken all first-team reps in Washington this off-season, but HC Ron Rivera said Howell and Jacoby Brissett are in competition for the starting job. During our NFC East Town Hall, Adam Caplan said Howell will open the season as the starter unless he struggles during training camp and the preseason (which is possible). If Howell struggles, expect Brissett to see significant playing time with HC Ron Rivera hanging onto his job by a thread and a new owner entering the mix.

The full article has all the latest actionable fantasy football intel, including why Deebo Samuel’s was 2022 performance was “awful” and “sluggish” (his words).

Around the NFL

Fallout: Coaching Changes

Tom Brolley broke down every new offensive playcaller before analyzing how these coaching changes will affect fantasy for the 2023 season.

Five teams replaced their head coaches and nine other teams made changes at their offensive playcalling positions.

Justin Herbert should benefit from the arrival of former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who Los Angeles inked to a deal less than 24 hours after he was let go by the Cowboys. Moore's past success with the Cowboys' offense and his ability to incorporate downfield passing concepts may help unlock Herbert's potential as a downfield passer. The Chargers already ranked second in the league in pass attempts per game last season and Moore's innovative scheme could elevate Herbert’s performance.

👀 Russell Wilson can’t be worse than 2022, right? Wilson now has one of the NFL’s most respected offensive minds calling plays for the Broncos in Sean Payton. Payton has a track record of setting up favorable situations for shorter quarterbacks (see Brees, Drew).

It’s not looking good for Dak Prescott, who will be without pass-happy OC Kellen Moore this season. The Cowboys are focused on running the football and offensive playcalling changes create uncertainty surrounding Prescott's production and the entire Cowboys' offense.

Read the full article.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

Fishing for Wins

Scott Fish Bowl 13 Scoring Breakdown and Strategy by Ryan Heath is the most comprehensive outline of the scoring, most valuable players and positions based on how the format would have played out in 2022, and the dankest draft strategies you’ll find for #SFB13. Ryan also applies SFB13’s unique scoring to the 2022 season to give much-needed context for the format changes. For example:

In a PPR league in 2022, you’d have been indifferent between the QB30 (11.8 FPG) and the WR36 (11.6 FPG) for your Superflex slot. In SFB13 scoring, the QB30’s 19.2 FPG narrowly edged out the WR12.

Now that we know landing spots, review Brett Whitefields’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft 3.0.

Fantasy Football Best Ball Rankings FantasyPoints cheat sheet.

FantasyPoints 2023 Dynasty Rankings.

🎤 Early 2023 Good Vibes | Hansen's Hints Podcast - John Hansen gives an early vibe check from OTAs and minicamps (podcast)

🎤 Ranking the Top 10 NFL Defensive Front Sevens | Take Talk Podcast - Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) select and debate their top-10 defensive front sevens in the NFL (podcast)

🎤 Scott Barrett's 2023 Rookie RB Dynasty Rankings - Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) argues that this "deep" rookie running back class isn't actually all that great for fantasy. Find out why as he ranks the 2023 rookie RBs for dynasty purposes (podcast)

Two Tweets

Justin Fields was historically good in 2022.

Lamar is even more impressive than we thought.

Dynasty Corner

Sophomore WRs to Target in Dynasty by Ryan Heath reviews the 2022 rookie WR class, covering the five productive WRs from last year and rank them for dynasty leagues entering this year. He also includes three sneakier values from the class.

Last season, we saw five different 2022 rookie wideouts reach double-digit fantasy points. That’s tied for the 4th-most of any season since 2000 — only 2014, 2019, and 2020 had more fantasy-relevant rookies.

Top second-year WRs:

1. Chris Olave

2. Garrett Wilson

3. Drake London

4. Christian Watson

5. Jahan Dotson 

Jahan Dotson had a strangely underrated rookie season, mostly due to being hampered for part of it by a hamstring injury. He averaged 14.0 FPPG in games where he played on over 2/3rds of Washington’s offensive snaps, which would have been better than Olave.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. Don’t forget code DADROCK10 for an extra 10% off that FantasyPoints subscription you planned to get anyways.

See you next week!

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.