Welcome to Championship Week. You’ve worked this hard, you’ve come this far…it’s time to finish the job. We’ve packed today’s newsletter with the info you need to take home the title.

We can’t thank you enough for joining us every week to dominate fantasy football. Let’s get to it, one more time.

If you’re playing against Derrick Henry in the championships…I’m so sorry.

Subscribe NOW for our weekly rankings, breakdowns & can’t miss articles!

Subscribers, join our Discord for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— Sean

The Everything Report Week 17

Scott Barrett reviews all the fantasy football usage from 2025 NFL Week 16, with everything you need to know for Week 17.

The Steelers backfield will help you win titles. Kenneth Gainwell has seen at least a 14% target share in five of his last six games, averaging 15.4 XFP/G (~RB11) - only McCaffrey, Achane, and Robinson have more such games this season. His receiving role could grow in Week 17 with DK Metcalf suspended. Jaylen Warren scored 21 of 29.1 fantasy points on two long TDs, and the Browns have allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs over the past five weeks. Both Steelers backs are top-24 plays, with Gainwell leaning top-16.

Taysom Hill is inevitable. Hill operated as the Saints’ lead back in Week 16, taking a 55% carry share and 12% target share, including three designed targets, and also threw a 38-yard touchdown. With Alvin Kamara likely out, Hill remains the top option for carries over Audric Estime and Evan Hull, and for designed targets over Kevin Austin and Mason Tipton. While his past explosiveness seems diminished, he’s a reasonable TE-slot option for 7–9 points, though a zero is still possible - best used as a last-resort play.

Can you trust Tampa’s WRs? Mike Evans has clearly established himself as Tampa Bay’s alpha, posting at least a 25% target share and leading or tying for the most targets on the team in all five full games he’s played, averaging 19.1 XFP/G (~WR2). He’s been unlucky with -5.6 FPOE over this stretch, largely due to Baker Mayfield, as Evans and Emeka Egbuka rank 4th- and 2nd-lowest in catchable target rate among 87 qualifying WRs this year. Egbuka has also run a route on just 50% of the Buccaneers’ dropbacks, fewer than Jalen McMillan, marking his second straight week setting a career-low in route share. Evans is a high-end WR2 for Week 17, while Egbuka remains unplayable.

Need a last-second QB pivot? Tyler Shough might be for real. The Titans have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs through the air (+5.4) over the past five weeks. Tyler Shough is averaging 17.3 FPG (~QB14) as well as 1.6 red zone rush attempts per game (2nd-most behind only Trevor Lawrence) over the last five weeks. This is a fantasy owner’s dream. He ranks as a fringe top-12 QB for me this week

Find league winners & more in The Everything Report Week 17.

Week 17 Starts/Sits

Graham Barfield lists the stats you need to help make your toughest lineup decisions for Week 17.

Start Jaylen Waddle. He’s earned at least 26% of the Dolphins targets in five out of his last 6 games and Tampa Bay allows the 11th-most yards and fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. Quinn Ewers has been decent, delivering a 79% catchable throw rate on 41 dropbacks this season. For reference, Tua Tagovailoa’s catchable throw rate is 76%.

Start Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren. The Steelers entire offense has revolved around these two RBs as of late, and that will especially be the case without D.K. Metcalf. Over the last five weeks, Gainwell is fantasy’s RB10 by PPR FPG. Warren is RB12. Gainwell is going to get peppered with targets again after he’s earned six or more targets in 5 out of his last 6 games. Cleveland was playing great run defense to start this season, but has since been cracked for the sixth-most rushing yards per game over the last eight weeks.

Start Brenton Strange. While his volume hasn’t been amazing as of late, Strange has turned his 25 targets into an efficient 17/230/2 receiving (10.4 PPR FPG) since he returned from injury. He’s a decent, low-end TE1. The Colts allow the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends. If you need another option, here it is.

Sit Jaxon Dart. Over his last three starts since returning from injury, Dart is fantasy’s QB29 by FPG. The Giants have just completely abandoned their passing attack with a -10.5% pass rate under expectation since Week 13, which has torpedoed Dart’s passing volume. The only thing leaving Dart on the QB1 radar is his rushing ability. He has turned his 15 carries into 90 yards over the last three weeks. This is going to be a weird game between two tanking teams.

Sit Adonai Mitchell. After last week’s catastrophe by Brady Cook, it’s made Mitchell impossible to trust as a WR3/FLEX option. Maybe he gets enough volume to pop a long gain? Since joining the Jets, Mitchell has led the team in targets in five out of 6 games. He’s earned 22%, 25%, 36%, 18%, 27%, and 17% of the target share since Week 11.

Sit Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Emeka Egbuka. Since returning from injury, Godwin is fantasy’s WR47 over the last 5 weeks. Egbuka (50% route share) actually ran fewer routes than McMillan (57%) last week. None can be trusted.

Read the full article for advice on who to start & sit throughout the entire Week 17 slate.

Los Angeles Rams (60%) @ ATL. The Rams have plenty to play for and rank in the top 10 in both sacks and interceptions. They face an immobile Kirk Cousins, who may again be without Drake London, in a prime-time spot. Coming off a frustrating collapse in Seattle, Los Angeles is positioned for a strong, high-effort defensive performance in the fantasy finals, per Drake’s Week 17 Streaming D/STs.

Target Tee Higgins. Arizona plays Cover 4 at the league’s highest rate (26%), a shell Tee Higgins has dominated, posting a +17% TPRR and 2.97 YPRR (+56%) over the past two years. This season, Higgins owns 52% of Cincinnati’s air yards and an 18.1 aDOT vs Cover 4 (Chase: 6.5), highlighting his big-play upside. With the slate’s highest total (53.5), both teams top-6 in PROE, and Higgins priced 24% cheaper than Chase - whom he’s outscored in three of their last four games - he offers strong upside and leverage, per Heath’s Week 17 Advanced Matchups.

All Systems Go! Josh Downs vs Jaguars DBs. Downs has quickly become one of Philip Rivers’ preferred targets, drawing 14 looks across Rivers’ two starts, including a 9-target, 5-65 line vs. San Francisco. Operating primarily from the slot, he faces a Jaguars defense allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to slot WRs over the last five weeks. With Rivers’ trust and a favorable matchup, Downs profiles as a viable WR3 and strong DraftKings value at $4,200, per Dolan’s Week 17 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Market Trends

Trends, Sleepers, Breakouts & more

Brian Thomas Jr spike week? Brian Thomas struggled in a tough matchup vs. Pat Surtain last week (2/18 on 3 targets) and has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in 7 of 12 games. Indianapolis primarily plays Cover 3 and Cover 1 (49.5%), where Thomas has averaged 1.66 YPRR and a .23 TPRR. The Colts allow the 10th-most receiving yards to WRs, and Thomas posted a 3/87 line against them in Week 14, offering rebound potential. If you need an upside flex play, BTJ might work, per Brolley’s 2025 Week 17 Game Hub.

Another fun option? Luther Burden. Burden emerged as Chicago’s top WR in Weeks 14–15 with Rome Odunze sidelined, posting 10/151 on 13 targets for 25 fantasy points. He’s logged 3+ catches in six straight games but missed Week 16 with an ankle injury. San Francisco plays Cover 3 and Cover 4 at a 59.5% rate, where Burden has excelled (3.77 YPRR, .27 TPRR), though the 49ers limit wideouts, allowing the eighth-fewest receiving YPG. He’s another high upside dart throw if you’re looking for one, per Brolley’s 2025 Week 17 Game Hub.

Ready for mock draft season? With the NFL Draft just four months away, it’s the perfect time for Mock Draft 1.0. Fantasy Points breaks down the top 2026 prospects and highlights potential fantasy stars. Plus, the new 2026 NFL Draft Podcast with Brett Whitefield will cover everything you need to know weekly, including trades. Some fun ones in the article:

• 1. New York Jets: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

  • DETAILS: New York Jets send #4, 2027 1st (from Indianapolis) to New York Giants for 1

  • There will be pressure — and competition — from multiple teams in the chase to trade up and select Mendoza, but ultimately the Jets will be the most aggressive. A rare New York to New York trade will go down with the Jets acquiring the Giants’ top pick. New York needs a long-term answer at QB and will find it with Mendoza. He will step right in as the 2026 starter and provide stability to a franchise that requires immediate consistency and production at the position.

• 4. New York Giants: Carnell Tate WR, Ohio State

  • The Giants hit big last draft, trading back into the 1st round and selecting Jaxson Dart. After finding their long-term answer at signal caller, they will now look to add to the offensive ecosystem around him. Tate would form a ridiculously talented and dangerous pairing with star wideout Malik Nabers. With Nabers most likely starting slow in 2026 off his knee injury, Tate could be leaned on as the team’s top target earner. He is a big-time deep threat and catches everything.

• 10. Dallas Cowboys: Jeremiyah Love RB, Notre Dame

  • Fantasy Managers rejoice. A Jerry Jones legacy pick if there ever was one. The Cowboys trade up and select the electric future fantasy star in Love. Javonte Williams is a free agent, and although he played well for them this season, Dallas rewarding him with a huge contract seems unlikely. Adding Love gives the Cowboys their most talented back since peak Ezekiel Elliott. Love is a home run hitter with two-way ability. He can become a Jahmyr Gibbs-level player and is worthy of a top-10 selection.

Want more mock draft predictions? Read the full article: Gremminger’s 2026 NFL Mock Draft 1.0.

💸 Best Bets

• Tyler Shough over 218.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings). He’s thrown for 239+ yards in five of his last six games and now faces a Titans defense allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game (241.1). Tennessee also sees the highest pass rate over expectation, and New Orleans showed extreme pass-heavy tendencies (16.8% PROE) without Kamara/Neal, setting up Shough for another high-volume passing spot, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 17.

• Must play TD Props per Kelley’s Paul’s Props and Touchdowns: Week 17:

  • Chris Olave (+140, Caesars)

  • Juan Jennings (+140, Bet365)

  • Mike Evans (+140, FD)

• Need to find some defensive props? Read: Defensive Player Prop Bets: Week 17.

If Fantasy Points has helped you dominate your home league or win a bunch of cash in betting or DFS, we’d love to hear about it.

Fire out a tweet tagging @FantasyPts and/or @FantasyPtsData (somewhere in the body of the tweet — not at the very beginning), along with #ScoreMore, letting us know how we’ve helped.

The best testimonials will be featured on our site, and if that’s you, we’ll cover your subscription cost, give you a free upgrade, or send you some free swag from our store!

Thanks for helping us out!

— the Fantasy Points team

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

REMINDER: If you’re serious about winning, it’s time to get a Fantasy Points subscription to access all our fantasy football, betting, and DFS content.

View our NFL Premium Plan and NFL Standard Plan.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup. If you never want to miss a Fantasy Points article again, hit subscribe below.👇

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.