1. Starts and Sits 🔥

2. Upgrades & Downgrades 👨‍🍳

3. Best Bets 💸

4. Podcast Corner 📺

The Everything Report

Klint Kubiak Rules

Klint Kubiak is the best. Scott believes in the importance of offensive play-callers, and how any play-caller from the Shanahan tree should be a fantasy force multiplier - which is exactly what’s happening with the Saints. They’ve put up 91 points through two games and the data proves that the process is just as impressive as the results. Kamara has already been a home run, but Carr, Shaheed and Olave are all buys. Get in on the fun.

Buy low on George Pickens. Pickens ran 80% of his routes against A.J. Terrell in Week 1 and 71% against Patrick Surtain in Week 2 - two of the league’s best shadow CBs. Pickens has also dealt with some brutal luck, having catches overturned or nullified (penalty) that went for 41 yards, 36 yards, 51 yards, and a 6-yard touchdown. He also ranks 2nd-best in ASS (average separation score), joining Mike Evans as the only WR to rank top-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2…target him.

Devon Achane - destroyer of worlds. Last season, Achane averaged 7.8 YPC - the most by any RB in any season all-time…and now he’s added more to his bag. Through two weeks in 2024, Achane leads all RBs in XFP (23.4). He’s been providing low-end RB1 rushing volume plus low-end WR2 volume as a receiver. Last year, 58.9% of all CMC teams made it to the finals in ESPN leagues…we could be looking at that kind of absurd percentage again in 2024 with Achane.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 3 Everything Report.

Starts/Sits

Week 3 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 3.

Must Start - Josh Jacobs. He hasn’t scored a TD yet, but Jacobs has produced 255 scrimmage yards on 18 and 32 touches in Weeks 1 & 2. With Marshawn Lloyd and A.J. Dillon hurt, Jacobs has handled 76% of the Packer’s RB carries and played 80% of the snaps in the red zone.

Start ‘Em - D.J. Moore. Bad news? No other QB has thrown a catchable pass less often than Caleb Williams (63.6%) through two games. Good news? Moore is hyper-targeted (over 30% first-read target in Week 1 & 2) and the Colts have allowed 24/290/3 receiving on 31 targets. Low-end WR2 with upside.

FLEX Play - Javonte Williams. He saw a big increase in usage in Week 2 after splitting work with Jaleel McLaughlin in the opener, handling 16 opportunities to McLaughlin’s three. The offense is bad, but Williams is worth a flex.

Stream ‘Em - Derek Carr. Somehow, Carr is QB2 in FPG (thank you Klint Kubiak). The Saints are using motion at the fourth-highest rate and the Eagles have a bottom-10 pressure rate, alongside their secondary has allowed 7.83 passing yards per attempt (seventh most). Carr is the best streaming play in Week 2.

Sit ‘Em - Jaylen Waddle. In the three games where QB Skyler Thompson played more than 35% of the snaps in 2022, Waddle was held to 3/23, 3/52 and 5/44. He’ll have even less volume than he would with Tua behind center, and this isn’t an easy spot vs a physical SEA secondary.

Stash ‘Em - Jalen Nailor. For Week 3, Nailor is on the WR3/FLEX radar due to the weakened slate with endless injured WRs. He’s a good player with real contingent upside if Jefferson and/or Addison miss time this season.

Read the full Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, or watch the YT version below!

Chris Godwin is taking over. Godwin has been active in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, logging 8 targets, 7+ catches, 83+ yards, 1 TD, and 22+ FP in Weeks 1 & 2. He’s tied with Jameson Williams for the second-most receiving yards with 200, behind only Nico Collins (252) - and he also ranks 12th in first-read share (34.2%) through two weeks. The Broncos are giving up the eighth-most receiving YPG (44.0) and receptions (10) to receivers aligned in the slot, per Brolley’s Week 3 Game Hub.

Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride? A common theme with coverage shells is that single-high and man looks open the floodgates for WR1s to garner targets and produce monster weeks, while two-high shells and zone heaviness tilt the favor to ancillary weapons. The data shows that Harrison Jr (single-high, man) and Trey McBride (two-high, zone) thrive in different environments. In Week 3 they play the Lions, who deploy a single-high look 66.7% of the time per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 3.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Miami. The Dolphins have a slot-funnel defense, and JSN plays in the slot 83.3% of the time…Miami has allowed 9.06 YPA to the slot, good for 5th most in the NFL, despite not playing a vs a premiere full-time slot receiver like JSN. Expect a nice game here, per Heath’s Week 3 Advanced Matchups.

Shadow Alert! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Bucs WR Mike Evans. Surtain has shadowed each of the first two weeks, holding DK Metcalf (3/29, 4 targets) and George Pickens (1/16. 2 targets) in check in his primary coverage. Evans has earned the benefit of the doubt over the years not to be considered worse than a WR2, but this feels like a Godwin week, per Dolan’s Week 3 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

D/ST Starts

Brian Drake breaks down the top streaming options at D/ST. One deep option 👇

Indianapolis Colts (4%) vs. CHI - The Bears offense has been rough, highlighted by their horrendous offensive line play; Chicago’s O-line just allowed 11 hurries and seven sacks to HOU last week. Expect Caleb Williams to be sped up and throw a pick (or two). There’s a chance Chicago takes advantage of the Colt’s spotty run defense, but don’t be scared.

Looking ahead to week 4: Cincinnati @ MIA, Arizona vs WAS, Las Vegas vs CLE, LA Rams @CHI & Chicago vs LAR.

📺 Podcast Corner

• The Guru ranks RBs. Watch: Ranking The Best 12 RBs in 2024 Fantasy Football Right Now

• Steven ORourke breaks down Chris Olave. Watch: Why Chris Olave Will DOMINATE Against the Eagles Defense

• Brett Whitefield & Joe Marino talk Panthers. Watch: Bryce Young BENCHED What Is Next For The Carolina Panthers?

Trades & Bets

Running Backs Are In

Buy Tyjae Spears. He’s day-to-day with an Ankle injury, and he’s probably relatively easy to get after his slow start. Tony Pollard has also looked good, but Spears is due to a correction in his usage because he’s good enough to warrant more touches, and the coaches know that per Hanesn’s Week 3 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Malik Nabers. The kid is a stud, that’s easy to see, but the Giants are all bad vibes right now. They’re 0-2, their head coach could get fired and the season could get ugly…so this seems like the perfect time to sell high. Target someone more consistent and stable, per Hansen’s Week 3 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Buy Bell-Cow RBs. We have more RBs averaging at least 17.0 weighted opportunities per game (WO/G) than the first two weeks of any of the past three seasons. In 2021, there were more league-winning RBs than WRs (players on > 55% of ESPN playoff rosters), and we’re trending in the same direction this year. If you can secure one (or more) of the bell-cow backs…do it, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 2.

Props & Odds

Brandon Aiyuk over 61.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). With Deebo and Kittle out, the Niners will funnel targets to Aiyuk. LAR is giving up league-highs in YPT (13.2) and YPRR (3.26) to receivers aligned out wide. Aiyuk’s route share also climbed from 76% to 90% after a camp holdout, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 3.

Brock Bowers Over 45.5. (-110 Bet MGM). Bowers has a 23.9% target share, good for second among all TEs through two weeks. The Panthers are giving up 57 yards per game to TEs - this might be the last time we see a prop for Bowers this low, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 3.

Jayden Daniels over 60 yards Rushing Yards (+160, DK). Jayden has rushed 16 times in Week 1 and 10 times in Week 2. In Week 3, he faces a Bengals defense that’s low in QB pressure - and he’ll have to press the action here with CIN projected for 27.3 points, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 2.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 3.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Want to know what players get upgrades or downgrades? Read: The Market Report: 2024 Week 3.

• Want to know what matchups to exploit or fear? Read: Hansen’s Hints Week 3.

• Is Anthony Richardson changing the NFL? Read: Anthony Richardson: The ‘TTO Quarterback’.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 3.

• Want some trade examples for Week 3? Read: 2024 Fantasy WAR: Trade Advice.

• Not sure who to take in Week 3? Read: 2024 Week 3 Staff Picks.

• Trading in dynasty leagues? Read: 2024 Dynasty: Buy High and Sell Low.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 3 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.

Injury Report

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risk for Week 3.

Justin Herbert: High Ankle. Herbert told the media he has a high ankle sprain, so we can expect a dip in rushing results. Regardless - it looks like he’s pushing to play, but this is likely a game-time decision.

Tee Higgins: Hamstring. Hamstring injuries don’t necessarily slow down WRs, but the boom/bust nature is a consideration. The relatively low Week Winner Rate of 17% is a legitimate concern, and 51% of WRs who miss 0-1 games initially end up having a recurrence - averaging 1 missed game. Start.

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30am inactive here: Week 3 Injury Report.