De'Von Achane & Week 8 Starts/Sits

Market Trends, Starts & Sits, Trade Targets, Best Bets & more

Welcome to Week 8. I’d personally like to apologize for hyping up Jameson Williams last week. The process was there, the matchup was there, but he didn’t deliver - and now he’s been suspended for 2 games for using a banned substance. If it’s any consolation, I suffered with you guys…I started Jamo in 4 fantasy leagues, and 3 parlays. Pain.

But this is a ‘what have you done for me lately’ type game, so it’s time to get right this week. The landscape of the NFL changed with trades and injuries…let’s talk about it.

The universe handing out injury labels to my team like Oprah

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  2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

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The Everything Report

Replacing Injured WRs

The top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game through Week 7

Chris Godwin’s season is over. RIP to Godwin’s 2024 fantasy season, where he was objectively the most valuable WR in fantasy and the best draft pick you could have made over the summer. Between Godwin and Rice, this season feels cursed…but Scott has the playbook to get your team back on track.

Aggressively target Bucks rookie receiver Jalen McMillan. Godwin was running the ‘Cooper Kupp role’ in the Bucks offense, one of the most valuable roles in fantasy, and there’s a chance McMillan steps right in. He won’t be Godwin, but he does have some juice - there’s potential for league-winning upside here.

Who replaces Aiyuk in SF? In 7 games since 2021 without either Aiyuk or Deebo, Kittle averages 7.9 targets, 107.1 YPG and just under 23.0 fantasy PPG, which put him on par with Travis Kelce’s historic 2020 season…Kittle could be a league winner this year. As could Deebo, who also gets a boost without Aiyuk - averaging 10.8 targets, 133.4 receiving yards and 26.4 FPG. But who’s it going to be?

Juan Jennings should be a target if you can get him cheap - he ranks 5th-best this season in YPRR behind only AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice and Justin Jefferson while also ranking 4th in separation win rate. His route share balloons up to 73% in 5/7 games that Aiyuk or Deebo have missed over the last three seasons and he has the upside to flash…league-wrecker is in his DNA.

We shouldn’t forget about Round 1 rookie Ricky Pearsall either. Pearsall led the the team in route share (81.1%) and tied Kittle for the team lead in targets after Aiyuk left the game, just 49 days after being shot in the chest. It might take him some time to ramp up, but Pearsall could be in line to boom down the stretch.

Not every pickup will be a league winner, but you want to load your bench with as many dart throws as possible to increase the hit rate. Godspeed.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 8 Everything Report.

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Starts/Sits

Week 8 Decisions

Jaylen Waddle // Sam Navarro, USA Today Sports

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 8.

Start Jaylen Waddle. After four straight weeks on the sit list, we’re back to starting Waddle as a WR2. Tyreek Hill earned 36% of the first-read targets compared to Waddle, down at 18% back in Week 1, but Waddle still shredded for 5/109 receiving on five targets.

Sit Chris Olave. Coming off a concussion and without Carr behind center, Olave is a shaky WR3. Spencer Rattler has completed 63% of his throws for a grim 5.5 passing yards per attempt on his 86 dropbacks and he’s already taken 11 sacks.

Start Cade Otton. He’s tied with Kittle and Ferguson for the fourth-most targets per game (7.0) among TEs and he led the Buccaneers in first-read targets (24% share) last week, which should continue with Evans hurt and Godwin gone.

Sit Rhamondre Stevenson. After he ran a route on 70% of the pass plays in Weeks 1-2, Stevenson’s route share has been cut down to 29%, 44%, 30%, and 38% in his last four games. New England is dead last in yards before contact (1.05) over the last month.

Stash Erick All. In deeper TE premium leagues. All’s route participation has increased in five-straight games (22% > 28% > 30% > 35% > 46%). The rookie has earned 13 targets in this span, which is four more than Gesicki.

Detroit Lions (19%) vs TEN. No team allows more points to opposing DSTs than Tennessee. Last week they allowed three sacks and turned the ball over twice - and the Lions’ defense is a turnover-forcing machine, per Drake’s Week 8 Streaming D/STs. 

Tua x Tyreek. Defensively, ARI ranks 30th in EPA per dropback (0.22) and dead last in dropback success rate (55.8%) allowed to opposing offenses this season. They’re also tied for allowing the 5th-most PPG to opposing QBs (19.5) and are giving up the 6th-most PPG to opposing WRs (36.0). ARI deploys Cover 3 at the 8th-highest rate this season, a coverage that Tyreek smashes, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 8.

Jags Weapons vs GB. The Packer’s pass rush is struggling right now, despite abusing Stroud and the Texans last week. They rank just 21st by time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate of expectation, 3rd worst before they faced the struggling Texans O-line. When TLaw is kept clean, Engram’s FP/RR sees a +192.4% increase. BTJ also works well when TLaw isn’t pressured, as he’s the 4th-best in YPRR in this scenario. Both should eat, per Heath’s Week 8 Advanced Matchups.

Shadow Alert! Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey vs Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. MHJ has had a tough start to his rookie season - but a lot of that is on the routes they’re having him run - 48% of them are Go, Post and Corner routes - no quick reads or easy targets. He’s running a high percentage of low-percentage routes, and now he has a Ramsey shadow. He’s a WR3 this week, per Dolan’s Week 8 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

The A.S.S. Report has changed how fantasy players analyze WRs. Using the average separation score (ASS), we’re able to find valuable, actionable insights to win your season.

See why Jordan Vanek believes there’s a buy-low opportunity for Marvin Harrison Jr., why he believes Rashod Bateman can help your fantasy team, and find some league winners before your league-mates do 👇

The A.S.S Report: 2024 Week 7

Trends & Trades

De’Von Achane // Peter Joneleit, Icon Sportswire

Buy DeVonta Smith. If the Skinny Batman manager in your league is impatient or unreasonable, now’s the time to strike. His value has surely dropped, but it will rise soon with this nice schedule: at Cin, vs Jax, at Dal, vs Was, at LAR, at Bal, vs Car, vs Pit, at Was, and vs Dal., per Hanesn’s Week 8 Players To Trade/Trade For. 

Sell Javonte Williams. Wait to sell him after he (hopefully) crushes vs Carolina this week, but it gets much tougher moving forward. He gets tough run defenses in KC and BAL, has a Week 14 bye and also faces the tough Chargers defense in Week 16, per Hanesn’s Week 8 Players To Trade/Trade For. 

Is Rashon Bateman fantasy relevant? Bateman reached 11.1+ FP in four of his last five games, including 4 catches in three straight games. He ranks third in ASS (.216) after running wide-open multiple times vs the Bucs. He caught all 4 of his targets (18.2%) in Week 7 for a season-high 121 yards and a TD for 22.1 FP - making it 6 out of 7 total games this season where he’s seen 4+ targets. Keep an eye on him moving forward, he could be a startable asset sooner than later, per Brolley’s Week 8 Game Hub.

The De’Von Achane buy window. Ryan is desperately pleading with you to check in on Achane’s price in all of your leagues. Achane has led the backfield in carries in all five games he’s been healthy and received 80% of the backfield’s rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, also averaging15.4% target share in those games. This puts Achane in the Kamara and Hall territory of RB, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 7.

💸 Best Bets

  • Saquon Barkely over 74.5 rushing yards (-114 FD). Barkley has gone for 84+ yards in 5 of 6 games and ranks behind only Derrick Henry on explosive yards (312). Henry posted 15/92/1 rushing when he played the Bengals, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 8.

  • Joe Mixon over 77.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM). Mixon faces a Colts team that he destroyed for 159 rushing yards in Week 1. He’s run for 102+ yards in all three games he’s finished this season, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 8.

  • Davante Adams over 55.5 receiving yards (-114 FD). NE gives up 1.6 YPRR, seventh most in the league and the 85.1% catchable target rate they allow is fifth most in the league. Rodgers should look to get Adams rolling, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 8.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 8.

📖 Quick Hitters

📱 Tweet of the Week

Listen…sometimes you gotta sell your soul for a chip

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