Welcome to another edition of The Roundup. We’re almost done the preseason, which means it’s peak redraft SZN.

You ready to leave your draft-mates with zero doubt about your genius?

Yes, we’re almost done the preseason. A few takeaways from this week’s games:

• Brock Purdy closed out the preseason with 9-of-14 passing for 138 yards and a rushing TD. Purdy’s top-two targets have been Deebo Samuel (6 targets) and Brandon Aiyuk (4). George Kittle was targeted once.

• Tyjae Spears looks ready for NFL Sunday’s after a terrific showing this preseason. Spears has excellent contingent upside if Derrick Henry gets hurt and he might already be good enough to force the Titans staff to give him a legitimate role in the offense.

• Kenny Pickett, Steelers starters looking sharp. Total preseason RB snaps split 16 to 12 in favor of Najee Harris over Jaylen Warren.

• Marvin Mims may be little more than just a deep threat early in his career. Luckily, he’s elite at it (video).

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Guru’s Vibe Checks

"The Guru" John Hansen delivers his annual fantasy football vibe check from watching games, reading reports, and talking to insiders.

Good Vibes

The vibe on JK Dobbins got good quickly, after a failed holdout attempt by Dobbins, who has looked good as he’s ramping up his work. He might need a few weeks to get up-to-speed with the new offense, but Guru’s back in on Dobbins after a multiple-week hiatus.

Guru has been a huge fan of Zay Flowers since before the draft, and his vibes have been nothing short of spectacular, as he’s been their most dangerous player in camp, and he scored a 26-yard TD on his first target in the NFL in the second preseason game.

The vibes have been really great for Gabe Davis, who seems poised to do this year what Guru thought he’d do last year, which is fully break out. Oversold his talent a little last year, but Guru also thinks Davis would have hit his ‘22 projection had he not gotten hurt. Davis looked exceptional in the second preseason game and is clearly putting some good body language out there, which is a sign he’s feeling it this summer while completely healthy. They have very little at WR still, so they need Davis.

Outstanding vibes in LA for the Chargers, who are about to unleash a nasty foursome at WR for Justin Herbert, who is one of Guru’s top-1-2 QB targets this year.

Guru’s had a positive vibe on Jordan Love for most of the off-season, and he’s still there with three weeks to go before the opener. Love will be up-and-down, but there are clear signs of potential, like his chemistry with Romeo Doubs and a nice 11-yard run in the second game, showcasing his potential to go over 250 rushing yards this year.

Bad Vibes

The Cardinals trading Isaiah Simmons for next to nothing is a clear sign that a tank job is forthcoming. So now the vibe is really bad for Kyler Murray, and bad for everyone by association. Guru will still take a flier on youngsters Michael Wilson and Trey McBride late, but had already moved down and off Hollywood Brown within the last week

The off-season vibes with Deshaun Watson were great, but here in training camp, they haven’t been swell, as Watson has struggled more than expected, per various reports. However, others in the know say he’s been fine. Guru is sticking with Watson as a target because the production should be solid, at worst, because he’ll run plenty (especially if his passing is off). They also have amazing depth at receiver.

Guru’s had a shaky vibe on Rhamondre Stevenson all year based on how he wore down last year, and while he’s not panicking about the Ezekiel Elliott addition, it’s not great. Zeke’s good in pass-pro and short-yardage, so he could be a pain for Rhamondre, who Guru’s careful not to rank over his ADP this summer (but also not below it).

Read the full article for the vibes on Deebo Samuel, Josh Jacobs, and the Chargers WRs.

Dank Stats

Scott Barrett’s 69 Stats

Scott Barrett uses the Fantasy Points Data Suite to dig up 69 of the most interesting stats to use in your 2023 fantasy football drafts.

Three snippets:

James Conner

2A. From Week 10 on, James Conner averaged 19.8 FPG last year, which ranked 2nd-best among all RBs (behind only Christian McCaffrey).

2B. Over this span, Conner eclipsed a 95% snap share in four different games. Across the full season no other RB hit a 95% snap share more than once.

2C. Over the last two seasons, Conner averages 15.9 carries, 5.1 targets, and 21.4 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) when playing on at least 60% of the team’s snaps.

2D. Over the last two seasons (regardless of snap share), Conner averages 21.6 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) in games Kyler Murray either sat out or attempted fewer than 2 passes.

2E. Conner has minimal competition for backfield touches, and HC Jonathan Gannon said he’s “100 percent comfortable” with Conner being Arizona’s bell cow this season.

2F. Conner is currently being drafted outside of the top-20 RBs on ESPN, Yahoo!, and NFL.com.

Josh Allen

10A. Before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow in Week 9, Josh Allen averaged 30.4 FPG with a 115.8 passer rating over his previous 9 games.

10B. If that came over a full season, those numbers would have ranked best all-time (by +8%) and 8th-best all-time.

10C. From Week 9-on (including the postseason), Allen averaged 23.2 FPG (4th-most), but his passer rating fell to just 86.7 (worse than Marcus Mariota’s 88.2).

Brock Purdy

64A. Last season Brock Purdy ranked 8th in fantasy points per start (18.6).

64B. If you include the postseason, he ranked 5th-best in fantasy points per dropback (0.60), in between Josh Allen (0.61) and Patrick Mahomes (0.59).

64C. He has arguably the best offensive play-caller and the best supporting cast in football.

64D. He’s priced as just the QB23 in Underdog best ball drafts.

Derrick Henry

67A. Over the last four seasons, in standard (non-PPR) leagues, Derrick Henry has finished 1st (17.0), 1st (21.1), 2nd (19.8), and 2nd (18.8) among all RBs in FPG.

67B. Henry has always been a tougher sell in PPR leagues, but consider this:

67C. Last year Henry led all RBs in fantasy points per route run (1.97), yards per route run (2.57), yards per target (9.95), yards after the catch per reception (12.3), yards after contact per reception (3.97), and depth-adjusted yards per target over expectation (+3.9).

67D. We may very well be looking at a “Happy learned to putt” moment for Henry, something which might jettison Henry from high-end RB1 fantasy numbers to an all-time great fantasy season in 2023.

Read the full article to find out stats Scott shares on Justin Fields (“It’s scary to think what Fields might be capable of...”) and Ja’Marr Chase (“he would have averaged 26.7 FPG…”).

$2000 Buy-In

High-Stakes Draft Review

Jules McLean recaps a 2023 FFPC high-stakes fantasy football draft, with a grand prize of $1 million on the line. She was drafting fifth.

Pick 2.08 - DeVonta Smith. “I had hoped Garrett Wilson would be here, but he went two picks before me. It was between Jaylen Waddle and Smith for my second pick. I like them both very much and had both on my FFPC Main team last year (Waddle in the 4th and Smith in the 7th … gone are those days!). The determining factor was Jalen Hurts vs. Tua Tagovailoa, and given Tua’s concussion history, I felt Smith would play more with his QB1 than Waddle. Smith produces — he caught 70% of balls thrown his way last year, with 95 receptions on 136 targets. Smith won’t face many double teams with A.J. Brown lining up on the other side, so I expect more of the same this year.”

Pick 13.05 - Ty Chandler. “I’m not impressed with Alexander Mattison’s numbers the past two seasons, as his yards per attempt have been 3.7 and 3.8, respectively. It seems odd that he can’t get that over 4.0, especially when he has a playmaker like Justin Jefferson on the team (defenses can’t stack the box). I go back and forth between drafting Chandler and rookie RB DeWayne McBride. I tend to favor McBride more in dynasty leagues and Chandler in redraft, as Chandler would get the call should something happen to Mattison. Another stash-and-hope player.”

Read the full article for why she grabbed Kyle Pitts in round 4 and Jordan Addison a few rounds later.

Tweets

We’re still in on Dre. Big time.

Looks like we can expect Jeudy back by Week 2 or 3.

Questions around when to draft RBs? We got you.

Dynasty Corner

Revisiting the Rookies

Now that we’re seeing preseason action, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype. We revisit Brett Whitefield’s 2023 NFL Draft “My Guys” to see who is under or overachieving.

Saints WR AT Perry. “There is no receiver in this class that has a better, more accomplished resume as a deep threat than Perry. He wins with a combination of athleticism, sophisticated release packages, and crisp route running while also showing off elite ball-tracking and body control. I see glimpses of DJ Chark and Tee Higgins when I watch him.”

Broncos WR Marvin Mims. “For my money, Mims is the best of the bunch when it comes to this enormous class of undersized receivers not projected to go in the first round. I like him significantly more than Josh Downs and Tank Dell, both of whom seem to be getting more hype. His suddenness as a route runner shows his potential to be special, as he routinely takes CBs in his face “off the dribble.” On top of that, his analytical profile stands out as being elite.”

Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby. “Teams looking for a prospective lead back, or even bell-cow type, beyond Bijan Robinson can find the next best thing in Bigsby. He checks all three premium traits boxes for a runner with vision, burst, and ability to create beyond his blockers. In fact, you won’t find a running back in this class who is responsible for creating a higher percentage of his own yards than Bigsby. He also brings size, physicality, and an intensity that is hard to match. He has some of the most violent cuts you will ever see and boasts a nasty stiff arm as well. In the pass game, he shows natural hands and decent polish as a pass-protector.”

Read the full article for the other RB and WR sleeper rookies to keep an eye on.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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