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Consistency Review: Production

Jake Tribbey analyzes the most and least consistent scorers in 2024 fantasy football and how to use that info in 2025.

Least Consistent Players - Production

 🔴 Least Consistent: Jauan Jennings (WR, 49ers)

• In 2024, Jennings showed inconsistent production with three massive fantasy games but mostly mediocre scores overall.

• Despite that, he ranked top-15 in key efficiency metrics (1D/RR, FP/RR, YPRR) in 2024, outperforming notable receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Ladd McConkey.

• With Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL, Deebo Samuel in Washington, and Ricky Pearsall underwhelming, Jennings paired elite efficiency with a 20%+ target share in 9 of his last 10 games, making him undervalued at his WR42 DraftKings price despite a minor calf concern.

🔴 Least Consistent: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers)

• Reed has been an elite efficiency player, ranking top-10 in fantasy points over expectation the last two years and 6th-best in career YPRR among 2nd- and 3rd-year WRs, but he actually earned fewer targets in his sophomore season than as a rookie.

• His 2024 struggles coincided with Jordan Love’s groin injury, as he averaged 18.3 FPG (WR8 pace) when Love was healthy versus just 8.9 FPG after, while also seeing his target share drop to 13.9% and being out-targeted by Tucker Kraft.

• Despite a strong case for Reed to beat his WR44 ADP on DraftKings if Green Bay passes more, Matt LaFleur’s committee usage and Reed’s low route share (69% in 2024, rarely above 75%) limit his ceiling, making him more of a fair value than a league-winning pick.

🔴 Least Consistent: Jordan Addison (WR, Vikings)

• Addison’s three-game suspension to start the season is unlikely to matter for fantasy, and he enters an offense under Kevin O’Connell that has consistently ranked top-6 in PROE and top-5 in red zone pass rate, producing strong passing numbers even with mediocre QBs.

• Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy could be the best quarterback Addison has played with, having been highly regarded in the 2024 draft and given extended time to learn the system, and Addison already averaged 15.8 FPG with Sam Darnold and 13.0 FPG with Nick Mullens.

• Priced as WR43 on DraftKings, Addison has clear ADP-beating potential with a realistic WR2 outcome alongside Justin Jefferson, and massive contingent upside to a WR1 finish if Jefferson were to miss time.

Most Consistent Players - Production

🟢 Most Consistent - Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (RBs, Lions)

• Detroit’s backfield was uniquely productive in 2024, with both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery consistently exceeding expectations in the league’s highest-scoring offense, as Montgomery thrived on red-zone usage while Gibbs delivered elite efficiency and explosive playmaking.

• Gibbs ranked among the league’s best in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards per route run, while Montgomery relied more on touchdown volume, finishing as the most consistent RB despite scoring 33% of his points on TDs.

• Entering 2025, a continued split backfield limits Gibbs’ overall ceiling while leaving Montgomery vulnerable to touchdown regression, making Gibbs a neutral play at cost and Montgomery better suited for Lions stacks than standalone drafting.

🟢 Most Consistent - AJ Brown (WR, Eagles)

• Brown was more consistent in 2024 than in 2023 due to the Eagles’ reduced pass rate, but while his overall production stayed steady (16.7 FPG vs. 17.0), his spike weeks and double-digit target games dropped significantly.

• This decline in high-end performances hurt his best ball value, as his advance rate fell to 12.8% (similar to fringe WRs like Greg Dortch and Treylon Burks) after posting a strong 22.5% advance rate in 2023.

• At his WR12 ADP, Brown needs regression from either Saquon Barkley or the Eagles’ elite defense to regain true difference-maker status in best ball, and given how historically great both were in 2024, some level of regression is likely.

🟢 Tony Pollard (RB, Titans)

• Pollard delivered consistent volume but lacked big fantasy performances in 2024, even averaging elite RB1 usage (17.8 XFP/G and 24.2 touches per game) in the five games without Tyjae Spears, yet managing only one 20+ point outing all season.

• His inefficiency (-2.3 fantasy points over expectation, 6th-worst) was partly due to Tennessee’s poor offensive environment, but he still ranked 6th-best in yards after contact per attempt, showing individual effectiveness despite little help.

• With Spears sidelined by a high ankle sprain and rookie QB Cam Ward expected to improve the offense, Pollard’s path to league-leading usage and positive regression makes him an appealing value at his 77.0 ADP on DraftKings.

Read the full article for the top 20 most and bottom 20 least consistent players in 2024 fantasy football and to learn how we can use that info in 2025

Ball Knowledge: Fantasy Points AI

A brief rundown of Fantasy Points’ new and evolving fantasy football AI assistant, powered by our projections and content.

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