Welcome to the most enlightening newsletter you’ll read today. No, we don’t know where DeAndre Hopkins will sign or what Stefon Diggs is thinking. But we do know when you should consider trading 7th year RB Austin Ekeler.

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MOST POPULAR

Age Curve: Production Drop

Are fantasy managers correct in their age-based discrimination?

Ryan Heath explains when you should move on from your stud fantasy player in this legendary article.

Running Backs

As you can see, RBs take a big step forward from Year 1 to Year 2. Years 2-6 are peak years, with that peak production largely remaining stagnant. Year 7 provides the first hint of a steep decline toward irrelevancy.

For dynasty leagues, RBs who fail to break out after two years should be sold – particularly if they can be flipped for anything resembling top-12 RB prices. History shows these players are unlikely to provide multiple top-end seasons. Travis Etienne technically fits this bill – though with the massive asterisk that he didn’t have a chance to play a single snap in Year 1. Players entering Year 4, like J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift, have even longer odds of ever breaking into the top-12 more than once.

If you take one thing away from this section: absolutely hammer RBs entering Year 2, which represents the largest seasonal upswing in average production and the most common breakout year for veterans. Ryan is especially partial to Breece Hall, who was absurdly hyper-efficient as a rookie and was on his way to taking over to the tune of 66.4% of the backfield’s XFP in Weeks 3-6. And don’t forget about the other sophomore RBs, like Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker.

Read the full article to find out why James Cook, who “jumps off the page”, is Ryan’s preferred sophomore sleeper.

Wide Receivers

WRs typically underwhelm as rookies, before making a big leap in their sophomore season. They generally “break out” in Year 2 or Year 3. Unlike at RB, WRs gradually improve through Year 5, their best season on average. A slow regression to the career baseline occurs in Years 6-9, with a sharper drop to rookie-level production occurring in Year 10.

Top-12 WR breakouts typically occur in Years 2 and 3. The fantasy football takeaway is simple – target Year 2 and 3 WRs in hopes they exceed expectations. Ryan’s study from last year demonstrated sophomore WRs are ADP values in the middle rounds at much higher rates than other WRs.

Rookie season breakouts may be becoming more common. Year 1 accounted for just 7% of breakouts pre-2014, but 26% of breakouts since. Years 2 and 3 each accounted for 36% of breakouts before 2014, but just 16% and 26% (respectively) from 2014 to today.

Wan’Dale Robinson (better TPRR than Justin Jefferson and YPRR than Jaylen Waddle posted as rookies) and Nico Collins (led Houston in YPRR and TPRR, is the only clear outside WR on the team, and will have the second overall pick throwing him the ball this year) are deeper sleepers to keep an eye on.

Seriously, read the full article.

As for TEs, an insane number of top-6 TE breakouts occur in Year 2 – Targeting Year 2 TEs is one of the most potent and enduring cheat codes in all of fantasy, especially given the apathy most drafters hold for the position.

Sophomore TEs this season: Chigoziem Okonkwo, who led the league in missed tackles forced per reception (0.34), YPRR (2.85), and YAC/R (8.0) at TE. Greg Dulcich, who had a historically productive rookie season to go along with an impressive 30.0 routes per game (4th among TEs). Jelani Woods, Isaiah Likely and Trey McBride are others.

Year 7 is both the beginning of the TE danger zone and a year in which breakouts are exceedingly rare. This means we can probably give up on David Njoku and his TE9 ADP, having never exceeded 650 receiving yards or 4 TDs in any of his six seasons.

Franchise Focus

Ravens: Lamar Airs it Out?

We preview the 2023 Baltimore Ravens from every fantasy football angle, with key stats, player breakdowns, and John Hansen's tips.

Todd Monken, fresh off two national championships with the University of Georgia, joins the Ravens offense as OC. In four years as an NFL OC (three in Tampa and one in Cleveland), Monken orchestrated two top-10 offenses in total yardage, both with Jameis Winston and the Bucs in 2017 and 2018 (in the latter of which seasons Ryan Fitzpatrick started seven games).

Lamar Jackson’s ADP is understandably up this year (60 to 35): the Ravens are loaded at receiver and Greg Roman is gone. We are slightly below the market on Jackson, but mainly because we’re high on Burrow and Lawrence.

To date, the Ravens have done nothing of note in the backfield, rolling with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, plus a couple of UDFAs behind J.K. Dobbins.

So if you’re optimistic on J.K. Dobbins, we get it. From Weeks 3-6, his first four games back, he averaged just 3.5 YPC and generated an explosive run on only 5.7% of his carries. After that, Dobbins missed six games following a cleanup procedure on the same injured knee. When he returned in Week 14, he was a different player. He averaged 7.0 YPC and led the league over that span with a 12.3% explosive run rate. He also showed out in the Ravens’ playoff game against the Bengals, posting 13/62 rushing and 4/43/1 receiving on 5 targets (he had more receiving yards in the playoff game than he had during the entire regular season).

OC Monken wants to create space on offense with spread concepts, and Baltimore wants players who can take advantage of that space. Zay Flowers, their top pick at 23 overall, does that and more. Here’s what Brett Whitefield wrote:

Mark Andrews finished as a top-10 tight end in just six of his 15 games last season. The good news is Andrews should be healthier to start 2023, and the Ravens’ offense should be much better with their new OC.

Andrews’ backup, Isaiah Likely, didn’t have a great athletic profile (25th-percentile SPORQ score) but produced insane numbers at basically every level, including when Andrews was out or limited last season. New OC Todd Monken can be a big “TE guy,” but we expect to see more 11 personnel with the new WRs added. Likely should be drafted as the best TE handcuff this year.

Our Franchise Focus articles dive deep into every skill position on each team:

• Franchise Focus on the Buffalo Bills evaluates Josh Allen’s squad entering 2023.

• Franchise Focus on the New England Patriots covers what to expect from Matt Jones and the Pats in their first season with Bill O’Brien running the offense.

• Franchise Focus on the Miami Dolphins explains why Tua’s health is critical to Dolphins skill position players.

A snippet from our article on the NY Jets:

Welcome Aaron Rodgers, fresh off a vision quest. Can the four-time NFL MVP make better memories for Jets fans than Brett Favre did in 2008? We’ll see.

The bad: Rodgers failed to reach 4,000 yards through the air for the first time since 2017 (when he played just seven games). His touchdown rate also fell to 4.8%, well below his career 6.2% mark. His 12 interceptions were the most he’s thrown in any season since 2008.

The good: Some of Rodgers’ struggles were likely just bad variance – per Fantasy Points Data, only 2.8% of Rodgers’ throws last season were turnover-worthy, the ninth-fewest in the NFL. And there were still glimmers of the old Rodgers – he posted the 7th-highest accurate throw rate on throws of 20+ yards and the 2nd-highest accurate throw rate overall among qualified passers.

Full article here.

Brolley’s Bets

Betting on Watson

Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2023 NFL Touchdown Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, Tom Brolley highlights four bets he’s already made and additional wagers he considered.

His best bet?

Christian Watson over 4.5 receiving TDs. Watson is the most dynamic piece of the Packers passing attack and one of the league’s top breakout candidates at wide receiver. He scored seven receiving TDs and eight total scores in Weeks 10-13, which matched Randy Moss’ rookie record for the most TDs in a four-game span.

Listen Up

🎤 Lions Rookie LB Talks Shop - Lions LB Jack Campbell joins @FG_Dolan and @TreyKamberling on the inaugural episode of the Fantasy Points Podcast (listen)

🎤  IDP Overview - Justin Varnes (@downwithIDP) and Tom Simons get you up to speed on the comings and goings in the IDP landscape. Newly drafted players, free agency moves, and scheme changes that will affect your IDP draft decisions (listen)

🎤  32 Teams in 32 Days - Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) kicks off the series by welcoming the great Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) of the @LockedOnBills podcast to answer questions for the 2023 Buffalo Bills (listen)

Three Tweets

Scott Barrett on the first ever handcuff TE:

We will take all the Rhamondre love we can get:

Maybe don’t sleep on Deebo in 2023?

As a reminder, because we care about you, Fantasy Points Data is (no exaggeration) equivalent to products costing $15,000+ per year, but will be available to you for only $50. If scoring more fantasy points improves your life, you’ll want this tool. Just maybe don’t tell your leaguemates…

Stay updated on the impending release by following @FantasyPtsData on Twitter.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. See you next week!

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.