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Brain Trust

Must-Draft Rookies at ADP

The Fantasy Points staff breaks down its favorite 2025 fantasy football rookies to draft based on average draft position.

🧠 Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson (ADP: RB19)

• Henderson enters 2025 as arguably the best receiving back in the class with 50+ catch potential right out of the gate. Plus, his ball security and 3-down skill set should allow for plenty of opportunities — at Ohio State, he had only one fumble in 600+ touches, while Rhamondre Stevenson lost three fumbles last year and was benched for ball security issues. With the Patriots' offense on the rise, Henderson is expected to bring much-needed agility and receiving ability to the backfield and could become a major, major factor.

🧠 Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan (ADP: WR21)

• At least one rookie WR has finished as a top-6 PPR scorer in four of the past five seasons (Jefferson, Chase, Nacua, Thomas Jr., Nabers). This year, the best bet to reach that level of fantasy production is McMillan. T-Mac is one of the more affordable WR1 candidates in fantasy and steps into a massive role on a Panthers team that didn’t have a single receiver eclipse 50 catches or 650 receiving yards last season. From a target volume standpoint, he’s in an ideal situation and is a near lock for 120+ targets. Don’t be surprised if McMillan finishes the season with low-end WR1 numbers.

🧠 Jags RB Bhayshul Tuten (ADP: RB37)

• Under new Jacksonville HC Liam Coen in 2024, the Buccaneers had a top-3 backfield by total fantasy opportunity. That doesn’t guarantee Tuten will be this year’s Bucky Irving, but it’s great to know that Coen will hand the keys to a Day 3 rookie if he’s worthy of them. Tuten brings game-breaking speed — the 4th-best SPORQ athleticism score for an RB since 2000 behind only Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Stewart, and AJ Dillon — and makes for a logical recipient of the designed looks Coen was known for in Tampa Bay, with three of his players ranking top-12 in screen targets per game. So long as he corrects his fumbling issues by August, Tuten offers big-play and spike-week upside on the cheap.

Read the full article to see why Chris Wecht thinks Colston Loveland could be the every-week TE4.👀

Market Watch

Redraft Sleeper Candidates

Nick Spanola uses advanced statistics to identify some post-hype fantasy football sleepers for 2025, using Sleeper Redraft ADP.

😴 Browns TE David Njoku (ADP: TE10)

• Dating back to the start of the 2023 regular season, Njoku is the TE4 at 13.0 PPG, trailing only Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce. He did this despite five different QBs recording at least 100 dropbacks in a Browns uniform. The best case scenario for Njoku this season would be Joe Flacco winning the starting QB job, as the TE had 4 straight top-4 finishes at the position with Flacco under center in 2023.

😴 Titans WR Calvin Ridley (ADP: WR37)

• After being suspended for the entire 2022 season, Ridley saw 100+ targets and recorded 1,000+ receiving yards both with the Jaguars in 2023 as well as last season with the Titans. Plus, he should be getting a QB upgrade in 1st overall pick Cam Ward, which should help his efficiency — among all qualified WRs during the 2024 fantasy season, Ridley ranked top 3 in percentage share of his team’s air yards (45%), but ranked bottom 3 in catchable target percentage (68%).

😴 Bucs RB Rachaad White (ADP: RB40)

• Although all signs appear that Irving has taken over this backfield, Spanola still thinks White is undervalued relative to ADP. After finishing the 2023 season as the fantasy RB9, White still nearly eclipsed top 20-RB status in 2024 (RB21), despite teammate Bucky Irving’s breakout rookie year (RB20). Plus, both backs had virtually identical expected fantasy point team shares during the actual fantasy season through Week 17:

Read the full article to see why Spanola’s buying the talent of Travis Etienne in Jacksonville’s crowded backfield.

Statistically Significant

First Downs Per Route Run

Ryan Heath takes a look into 1st downs/route run: why they're important, how they're predictive, and how we can use them for 2025 fantasy football strategy.

1D/RR is calculated by simply dividing a player’s total first downs by the total number of routes they ran. First downs are a measure of a receiver’s ability to execute their route, earn a target, and convert it into a high-value reception that advances their team’s field position. Good receivers will do this more often, so when we divide by total routes to control for the volume of opportunities, we are left with an all-encompassing measure of WR skill and effectiveness.

So how does this metric affect some of the top targets in fantasy football?

📈 Rams WR Puka Nacua

• Heath believes Nacua is the most underrated Round 1 pick in all of 2025 fantasy football. His 0.170 1D/RR in 2024 ranks 2nd-best among all WR seasons in Fantasy Points Data history. He created first downs at more than double the rate of teammate Cooper Kupp. Across nine full games where he wasn’t injured or ejected, Nacua averaged 10.7 targets per game and an absurd 44.6% first-read target share, which would have beaten out Malik Nabers for the highest in Fantasy Points Data history. His 104.9 receiving YPG over this span also would have led all receivers in 2024.

📈 49ers WR Jauan Jennings

• Jennings ranked top-10 in both 1D/RR (0.119) and YPRR (2.47), but is drafted as just the Underdog WR35. He’ll face similar overall target competition this year, given the trade of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk’s likelihood to start the season on the PUP list. Across nine games that one of Samuel or Aiyuk missed in 2024, Jennings averaged 17.9 FPG (~WR8) on a 33.7% first-read target share (WR8). And this wasn’t just a case of a smart play-caller like Kyle Shanahan scheming undeserved targets to an inferior player; Jennings ranked top-20 in Average Separation Score (ASS), ahead of other great outside X WRs like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins.

📉 Steelers WR DK Metcalf

• Metcalf is likely to see some efficiency regression as a “big play merchant.” No player has ever exceeded 115 targets in an Arthur Smith offense, and Metcalf didn’t reach 1,000 receiving yards or 13.0 FPG during either season in which he’s seen fewer than 115 targets.

Read the full article for insight on some young breakout candidates, like Jalen Coker and Devaughn Vele.

Best Ball Corner

Underdog Best Ball Targets and Values

Graham Barfield analyzes Underdog Fantasy average draft positions to highlight the best NFL players to draft at cost and the most underpriced players.

🎯 Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (ADP: 42 overall)

• Daniels' 22.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie is the second-best mark all-time, trailing only Cam Newton (23.1 FPG in 2011). Recall that Daniels left Washington’s Week 7 game early with a ribs injury after 10 plays. If we remove that game, Daniels’ production across his 15 full contests was really worth 23.7 fantasy points per game. There have only been 28 instances in which a QB has averaged 23 or more FPG in a single season in NFL history.

🎯 Ravens RB Derrick Henry (ADP: 14 overall)

• The best running back of our era just posted a career-best and league-high 5.9 YPC because he plays in the same backfield with cheat code QB Lamar Jackson. Most importantly, Henry showed zero signs of falling off. Our Fantasy Points Data collection team charted Henry with 0.21 missed tackles forced per carry – 7th-best among 47 RB with at least 100 carries.

🎯 Texans WR Nico Collins (ADP: 12 overall)

• Over his last 30 games, Collins is the WR8 by FPG. He has some truly absurd metrics underneath the hood. Among WRs over the last two combined seasons:

  • Collins leads all WRs with 3.16 YPRR.

  • He’s the only WR to rank top-10 in back-to-back seasons by YPRR vs. man and zone coverages.

  • His 0.29 TPRR ranks eighth-best, tied with A.J. Brown.

  • His 85.3 yards per game ranks fifth-best, just three yards behind consensus WR1 Chase.

🎯 49ers TE George Kittle (ADP: 47 overall)

• Kittle has finished as a top-3 scoring TE by FPG in six out of his last 7 seasons, dating back to 2018. He was the TE1 in UD FPG (13.2) by a full point over Brock Bowers (12.2) last season. Historically, Kittle’s scoring has been negatively correlated with Deebo Samuel. This means that when Deebo does well, Kittle typically doesn’t, and vice versa. Over the last five seasons, Kittle has played in 12 games without Samuel, averaging 14.5 UD FPG. Those figures would easily make him the TE1.

Read the full article for more Best Ball targets (league-winning players) and values (underpriced players by ADP).

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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