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Draft Strategy: Sleepers & Catchable Targets

Fantasy Points x WR Sleepers, Catchable Targets Analysis, Podcast Corner & more.

Author

Sean Byrne
July 21, 2024

In partnership with

The NFL season is only 46 days away. How insane is that!? Now is the perfect time to lock in for the 2024/2025 season… we’re fired up.

This edition is all about finding value where others won’t look. Let’s get to it.

TFW NFL is just around the corner

  1. Fantasy Points x WR Sleepers 🔥

  2. Targets vs Catchable Targets 👀

  3. Podcast Corner - Must Drafts 👨‍🍳

  4. TD Odds, Record Odds 💸

Our 2024 Dynasty & Best Ball Rankings are now LIVE for subscribers:

Subscribers, join our Discord - if you’re not in there already - for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— Sean B

Market Check

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The Fantasy Points Podcast

Best WR Sleepers

Jameson Williams // Paul Sancya, AP Photo

John ‘The Guru’ Hansen and Brian Drake host The Fantasy Points Podcast and this week, they discuss 9 WR sleepers you need after pick 75.

Jameson Williams. With the ball in his hands, Jamo is incredibly talented, but he needs to stay on the field. Last year he played in just 12 games with 42 targets…but in the NFC Championship game, he was heavily utilized, which could predict a year three bump incoming.

The Guru believes the vibes are good per reports out of Detroit’s camp, Dan Campbell has been very positive when talking about Williams. The Lions also let Josh Reynolds go, and Williams improved as a blocker - so things are setting up for Williams to have a big opportunity in a talented offense.

Jahan Dotson. In 2022, Dotson had 7 TDs, but last season they fell off the rails and he ended up with just 4. Things should be trending upward for him - Jayden Daniels should inject some life into this offense and they should have an improved scheme & culture with Dan Quinn. I know, lots of “shoulds”.

Barring a shocking pre-season, you can probably get him around the 12th round. It’s a low-risk, high-reward player that could play a great role for your team. The Guru believes Dotson is a good buy low and has a chance to be a big ROI for you this season.

Darnell Mooney. His tenure in Chicago was a mess, but it’s obvious the talent is there. Now, Mooney is in Atlanta with Kirk Cousins… and it’s rumored that Kirk requested for the Falcons to bring Mooney in.

The Guru believes he could have a similar impact as Jordan Addison had last year. Kirk utilized Addison as a big play option in single coverage, opposite of Jefferson and Hockenson - something that could easily happen in Atlanta with London and Pitts. Mooney is worth a late-round flyer.

Watch the full video below to hear all 9 of their WR sleepers, including Michael Wilson and Christian Watson!

📺 Podcast Corner

Statistically Significant

Catchable Targets

Kyle Pitts // Adam Hagy, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan Heath looks into catchable targets and how useful it is for 2024.

Receivers who earn the most targets tend to score the most fantasy points. But Ryan believes there’s an exception: Is target created equal?

Using our Fantasy Points Data Suite, Ryan was able to define catchable targets and relate the stat to fantasy success. Here’s the TLDR:

  • A target for WRs in PPR leagues is worth about 1.78 fantasy points on average. But a catchable target is worth about 2.13 fantasy points. With deep targets, the difference is even more dramatic.

  • Catchable targets are more closely related to overall receiving yardage than regular targets when analyzing at the team level. Falcons receivers rejoice, because Kirk Cousins’ Vikings averaged +50% more catchable targets/game than the Falcons over the past two seasons. 

  • Average depth of target (aDOT) is the biggest determiner of a WRs catchable target rate, but deep targets still vary significantly from year to year. When we adjust for aDOT, we can find positive regression candidates and big fantasy value.

Curious about what WRs have lost the most expected fantasy points/game due to uncatchable deep targets?

Ryan goes incredibly in-depth with statistics and fantasy correlation for these findings, including why he thinks Kyle Pitts is among the most massive fantasy values at the TE position that we’ve seen in years.

We highly recommend you save this article to read when you can.

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📖 Quick Hitters

📱 Tweet of the Week

Feel like certain teams are lucky or unlucky with injuries? Scott has the numbers.

Age declines might be overrated for Elite RBs.

Anyone else get swept up in College Football 25 or just us?

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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