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Draft Strategy: Target these playcallers

Tomlinson x Fantasy Points, Playcaller Rankings, Guru Best Ball Guide & more

Happy 4th of July weekend! If you’re like us, you’re using Sunday to reset after a hectic last few days… what better way to return to normalcy than fantasy football?

This edition is all about playcallers, strategies and putting yourself in the best position possible during draft prep.

Let’s get to it.

Fantasy Points’ must-read insights:

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson x Fantasy Points 🔥

  2. New Playcaller Fantasy Impact 👀

  3. The Guru’s Updated Best Ball Strategy 👨‍🍳

  4. Scott Fish Bowl Strategy, Offensive Line Rankings & More 💸

Our 2024 Dynasty & Best Ball Rankings are now LIVE for subscribers:

Subscribers, join our Discord - if you’re not in there already - for personal start/sit questions & much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— Sean B

Market Check

Which aging RB will have the best 2024 season?

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The Fantasy Points Podcast

THE LaDanian Tomlinson

LaDainian Tomlinson // Chris Carlson, AP

John ‘The Guru’ Hansen and Brian Drake host The Fantasy Points Podcast and were recently joined by legendary running back LaDainian Tomlinson.

First-Round Strategy: LT has the sixth pick in his main league. His strategy? Try to take one of CMC, Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson if any of them fall - but be happy with top receivers like Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb if the RBs aren't there. We know the Guru wants to take RBs early and often, and LT feels the same.

Age vs Workload: LT believes that sometimes RB age can be overblown and that the workload and type of workload matter most. He also believes that when an RB is special, like CMC or Derrick Henry, age is less of a factor. When a player is a special talent or on a hall-of-fame trajectory, we should add a couple of years to players’ usual primes. Don't be scared.

Best RB Metrics: The Guru and LT discussed some of the best RB metrics collected by the Fantasy Points Data Suite that matter more than other stats. Explosive run percentage (percentage of runs over 15 yards), missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after/before contact, stuffed percentage, etc.

LTs favorite stat? Explosive runs… go figure. You don’t need 25 carries if you’re at the top of the league in explosive runs, you just need a chance. This is how you avoid tackles and injuries, stay on the field, limit wear and tear and win football games. Hall, Achane and Gibbs led the 2023 NFL in explosive runs percentage.

Sleepers: LT likes to target the second-string RB in top offenses because they’ll get looks and almost always outperform ADP. He also mentioned Trey Benson, rookie RB for the Cardinals, as one of his favorite players to monitor. He’s explosive, big-bodied and has the athetlic profile of an explosive player.

Watch the full video below to learn why LT’s favorite player was Walter Payton, how RBs should manage injuries and more.

Barretts Best NFL Playcallers

Fantasy Impact

Shane Steichen // Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports

Scott Barrett analyzes the fantasy football implications of NFL coaching.

NFL offensive coaches and play-callers are massively important in real and fantasy football. Scott believes elite offensive play-callers in today’s league have a comparable impact to an elite QB.

Kyle Shanahan is the obvious example - here are some other top play-callers that Scott targets for fantasy:

Sean McVay (LAR HC): Never underestimate McVay and the Rams. All of Todd Gurley, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods were league-winning fantasy players over the last 7 years, found on at least 20% of all championship-winning rosters. McVay averages 1.15 league winners per season. His players often overperform.

Ben Johnson (DET OC): One of the NFL’s brightest minds is one to target, despite it being difficult to tell who is going to pop off in this Lions offense. Look to grab offensive weapons in Detroit, and invest heavily in the offense he eventually inherits when he gets a head coaching job down the line… especially his slot WR.

Shane Steichen (IND HC): The Colts look to be a goldmine for fantasy this year, and Steichen has been a QB Guru everywhere he’s been with his RPO-heavy offensive scheme, which provides a massive advantage to his WR1. His resume speaks for himself… trust in Steichen.

Kevin O’Connell (MIN HC): The Vikings run a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense that is great for fantasy. Jefferson has benefited immensely from raw volume, running more routes in 2022 than any player in over a decade. They still led the league in passing yards last year despite Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall taking snaps at quarterback.

Best Ball

Guru’s 2024 Underdog Plan

CeeDee Lamb // USATSI

John Hansen analyzes his favorite Underdog Fantasy Best Ball targets and strategies.

Our team is taking turns to help you dominate your Best Ball drafts, and this week we have an updated plan from the Guru helping us with Underdog drafts and who to target.

The QB Plan

Last year, sharps continued the recent trend of giving love to QBs and drafting them early, but if you didn’t get Allen Hurts or Lamar, you were left disappointed due to so many top QBs falling short of expectations.

The Guru held off on early QBs due to his view of the depth at the position and believes skill positions are very top-heavy. Superior talent tiers:

  • RB - 10 top options

  • WR - 25 top options

  • TE - 5 top options

So in total, about 40-45 elite non-QB options before a level of ‘sameness’ in terms of quality and upside appears. Because of this, the Guru won’t take a QB until after the first three rounds. Targets:

Anthony Richardson (IND, 55) - The positives outweigh the negatives: he has one of the best play callers in the league, a strong OL and running game, and is a physical specimen. If he’s healthy, AR has the most QB upside at his ADP.

Jordan Love (GB, 96) - The Guru thinks it’s odd he’s this low, but that means the opportunity to get a league-winning option at a great price. Between his underrated rushing ability and high probability of throwing another 30+ TDs, he should flourish with his young and deep receiving core.

The RB Plan

The Guru’s RB strategy - hammer one of the top four options in Robinson, Hall, Gibbs and Taylor. The running back pool dries up quickly, so it’s important to get one of the league studs. Outside of the first round? Target:

Rachaad White (TB, 62) - He was the Guru’s top RB target last season and proved to be one of the best values all year, but for some reason, he’s still only the RB14 off the board. He’s a clear option.

Trey Benson (AZ, 106) - The oldest trick in the book is to grab an elite talent in the 9th round or alter to stash as your third or fourth RB. James Conner is hanging on but is often injured, so we should be able to pencil in Benson for three-ish starts.

Tyjae Spears (TEN, 114) - It didn’t work last year, but the process remains the same. The eye test and explosive metrics tell us that Spears is very, very good. His OC got some massive upgrades this year, and at this stage of their careers, he’s better than backfield running mate Tony Pollard. Jump on this before the market course corrects.

The WR Plan

Despite the Guru being all in on a hero running back, CeeDee Lamb is his top-ranked fantasy player for 2024, and he would take Lamb with the 1:01. He believes Lamb is the best high floor and upside on the board. Other options to target:

Drake London (ATL, 14) - If Kirk Cousins is healthy, London is going to feast… 100-catch season is in the cards as long as they throw it 35-plus times a week. Even Penix would be a massive upgrade if Kirk misses time, and his ADP has risen a few spots since May. Don’t miss this value.

Michael Pittman (IND, 33) - The Guru has been a big Pittman fan since he got to the league. Among 109 WRs who ran at least 50 routes in 2023, Pittman was 5th in target share at 28.1%. They only added AD Mitchell to the WR room, so nothing should really change here.

Jahan Dotson (WAS, 135) - Last year was bad and his ADP dropped 70+ spots because of it, but they lost Curtis Samuel, upgraded with an exciting rookie QB and Luke McCaffrey probably isn’t going to sprint right out of the gates. He should have a healthy target share north of 20% in an improved offense.

The Guru keeps this article updated all summer, so be sure to read and follow along for far more ADP values and more. Happy drafting!

It’s best ball season, and we have you covered at Fantasy Points. If you’re looking to get involved in Best Ball at Underdog using our code FANTASYPTS will get you a 50% deposit match of up to $250 in bonus cash AND a code for a $5 Fantasy Points subscription… there’s a lot of bang for your buck here (sponsored post).

Quick Hitters

📱 Tweet of the Week

Need a late round TE target? Scott has you covered.

Achane is a fantasy weapon…if he can stay on the field.

Upside wins titles. Take it from Scott:

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