Welcome to Sunday. Only four more of these until we have our lineups set, hearts on our sleeves and NFL Red Zone on the screen.

We finally have a verdict on Alvin Kamara: he’ll be suspended until Week 4 for his role in a fight outside a Las Vegas nightclub in 2022. All things considered, a 3-game suspension is 'a pretty good outcome' for the Saints, per HC Dennis Allen.

Now the tough part. Where to draft him.

Kamara is a great receiver, but his rushing efficiency stats have fallen off (38th-of-46 RBs in YAC per carry last 2 years). Thankfully, we’ve got Joe Dolan who explains why the Derek Carr addition could spell wonders for Kamara:

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

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Training Camp Notes

Our 2023 NFL Training Camp News articles by Tom Brolley are a one-stop shop for the most important news from NFL training camps.

Camp Movers 📈 

Jaguars HC Doug Pederson singled out Calvin Ridley as the camp’s standout through the first week saying, “The way that this guy practices, the speed at which he goes is a completely different level.” You’ll need to be more aggressive drafting Ridley as his current fourth-round ADP (38, WR20) is unlikely to hold for long.

In Baltimore, OC Todd Monken’s new offense is practicing at a blistering pace, routinely breaking the huddle with as much as 25 seconds left on the clock. Last season, the Ravens ranked 26th in seconds per play, with 30.2. The Ravens’ offense has the potential to squeeze off more plays if they remain an efficient unit with a more pass-heavy attack after the Ravens finished 18th in plays per game (62.1) in 2022.

Isiah Pacheco avoided the PUP list after sitting out OTAs due to off-season surgeries to his labrum and hand. He hasn’t been cleared for full practice, but NFL Network’s James Palmer reported that Pacheco could be cleared for contact by August 20.

Pacheco’s injury opened the door for UDFA Deneric Prince to operate as the starter in KC (Clyde Edwards-Helaire is missing practice with an illness). Prince impressed as a receiver and ESPN’s Adam Teicher wrote that it’s clear the rookie RB will make the roster, with his role yet to be determined. Prince is mostly free in drafts.

Brock Purdy has been cleared to practice and will throw two out of every three days to start training camp. GM John Lynch stated this spring that Purdy is the “leader in the clubhouse” for the starting job but added that the job will be “open for competition.” Purdy took all 21 snaps with the starting offense in his first practice on July 27 and remains on pace to quarterback one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Watch List

Star Potential Everywhere

Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL, PCL, and LCL last October, avoided the PUP list to start training camp and has been cleared for contact. He hasn’t been limited during camp and HC Sean Payton said Williams will see some preseason action. Williams appears to be well ahead of schedule from his major knee injury, and his ADP (62, RB20) is quickly rising in early August.

Garrett Wilson left a July 27 practice early for a low-ankle sprain. HC Robert Saleh said his star second-year WR should be fine, but it’s still an issue to monitor. Saleh said Wilson is expected to return to practice on Aug. 5.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported from Buccaneers camp that the coaching staff sees “star potential” in RB Rachaad White as a “smooth do-it-all option.” New OC Dave Canales has expanded White’s route tree, and White appears headed toward a huge, three-down role with little competition, which makes him a strong value at his ADP (68, RB24).

Dalton Kincaid has “looked the part” in his first training camp, per The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia. Kincaid’s worked heavily with Josh Allen and the first-team offense to open camp while being a “chore to deal with” against man coverage. Kincaid will be used primarily as a WR with Dawson Knox doing most of the dirty work as the team’s inline option.

The Athletic’s Daniel Popper’s biggest takeaway from Kellen Moore’s first few offensive practices is that Mike Williams is moving around much more than in past years, including more slot and inside alignments. The Chargers also opened up training camp throwing deep in the first few practices, great news for Williams.

Read the Offseason Tracker full article here.

Franchise Focus

NFC South

This NFC East review is part of our Franchise Focus series, where we break down each NFL team from a fantasy perspective.

Saints

Michael Thomas was one of the NFL’s most dominant WRs. From his rookie season in 2016 to 2019, he averaged 19.1 FPG, 9.6 targets per game, and 87.5 receiving YPG. For perspective, those numbers would rank 2nd-best, 3rd-best, and 2nd-best among all WRs all-time. All time.

But Thomas hasn’t been near his peak since 2019, when he averaged an absurd 23.4 FPG. 2022 was supposed to be his bounce-back campaign. Thomas averaged 17 FPG in the first three weeks of 2022 before going down with a dislocated toe – another injury that required surgery and cost Thomas the season.

It’s hard to argue Thomas is the same all-time great WR. But if he is just 80% of the pass catcher he was, Thomas is an above-average NFL starter. While he may not be the top dog in New Orleans, he is entering a contract year, finally healthy, and has everything to play for.

Read the full article for insight on Alvin Kamara, Derek Carr and Chris Olave.

Falcons

The 8th overall pick last April, Drake London saw atrocious QB play from both Falcons QBs. Among WRs with 100 or more targets, only Marquise Brown and DJ Moore saw a lower rate of catchable targets than London (73.9%). London finished tied for WR40 at 8.6 FPG. The Falcons’ 24.4 pass attempts per game last year didn’t help (the second-fewest among any team in the last 17 seasons…).

But there’s hope. London led his rookie class in target share (29%) and targets per route run (0.27), led all receivers in yards per route run (3.24, min. 25 targets) from Week 13 on and was targeted on a whopping 36% of his routes in that timeframe, easily the most of any player with at least 25 targets. But this was all without Kyle Pitts.

Three things need to happen in 2023:

1. London needs to see more catchable targets (possible but unlikely)

2. More volume (very unlikely), and

3. More looks even when Kyle Pitts plays (likely).

Read the full article for the 2023 outlook on Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Desmond Ridder.

Panthers

Despite playing just 57% of snaps, Miles Sanders had a 2022 breakout season behind the Eagle’s dominant offensive line, finishing as RB18 with 12.3 FPG. Sanders parlayed this into the best free agent RB contract - four-year, $25 million deal - to reunite with his old Eagles RB coach Duce Staley in Carolina.

And Sanders should see the biggest volume of his career. Panthers HC Frank Reich has a history of leaning heavily on lead runners: in 4+ seasons with the Colts, his starters averaged 17+ carries per game (Jonathan Taylor at 17.6 & Marlon Mack at 17.0). With just Chuba Hubbard behind him on the depth chart, an ascending offensive line and a hefty RB contract, as well as a chance to earn passing-game work, Sanders is a strong bet to beat his RB21 ADP.

Read the full article to find out where Bryce Young, Adam Theilen or DJ Chark are worth drafting this season.

Buccaneers

Chris Godwin bounced back from his December 2021 ACL tear, playing in 15 games and setting a career-high in targets (142) on the way to his third 1,000-yard season. But this was with Tom Brady, and on a Buccaneers team that had a league-high 751 pass attempts (over 44 per game) in 2022.

This year, the volume might not be there to justify Godwin’s price. Teams with over 42 pass attempts per game since 2010 have seen an average decrease of 6 attempts per game the following year – and that’s before factoring in Baker Mayfield’s even lower average (31.4) over the past two years.

Still, Godwin’s runs a shallower route tree than teammate Mike Evans, which makes Godwin a better fit for Mayfield’s tendency to throw shorter (evidenced by Mayfield’s 6.9 aDOT (29th) last year). But Godwin’s upside is limited with the major offensive downgrades in Tampa.

Read the full article for our thoughts on Mike Evans and Rachaad White

Tweets

Could Rhamondre be in for a legendary season?

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles passing offense could be even better next season.

Five rookies you NEED to draft this season, including Jahmyr Gibbs and Evan Hull:

Dynasty Corner

Two Deep Sleepers

Afterthoughts from the 2022 draft you shouldn’t forget about, from Nick Spanola’s 2023 FFPC Startup Dynasty Draft Plan.

Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton may be in year two of his NFL career, but some would argue it’s the 2022 second-rounder’s first chance at producing now that defensive-minded Matt Patricia is gone and Bill O’Brien took the reins. As Taylor Kyles points out, Thornton was deployed as a “Z” wide receiver early in his rookie season, a role that Jakobi Meyers owned and is now available after Meyer’s departure. Thornton had some buzz in OTAs and is worth a late-round flyer.

Cardinals TE Trey McBride was the first tight end selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, but didn’t light things up in the production department during his rookie season. Sure, Arizona will be a dumpster fire this year, but the subtraction of pass catchers (like DeAndre Hopkins) should open up doors elsewhere for McBride. McBride is a solid investment for year two and beyond, especially give his college profile.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

All our cheat sheets are ready for your upcoming drafts:

• Season-Long Cheat Sheet

• Top 200 Ranking Cheat Sheet

• Dynasty Draft Cheat Sheet

• Auction Values Cheat Sheet

REMINDER: We are offering the Data Suite at only $50, 75% OFF the typical price. We believe a database of this size and unique stats would cost hundreds — if not thousands — elsewhere.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

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