1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. The Market Report 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

Playoff Winners

Jahmyr Gibbs is winning leagues. The Lions backfield has averaged a league-leading 29.0 XFP/G. In three games without DMont last year, Gibbs averaged 22.2 FPG as a rookie. He’s by far the most efficient all-purpose RB in football, leading all runners in EPA/carry (0.14).

If Gibbs gets just a 73% share of the backfield and generates average efficiency, he’d average 21.2 FPG (RB2). The Lions are still hunting for the bye, so there’s no risk of limiting his usage…there’s a chance we see explosions of upwards of 28.4 FPG, which is CMC, Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson level of production. If Gibbs is on your team, congrats on the championship.

Joe Burrow is a freak of nature. He’s tied Tom Brady with an NFL record in 6 straight games with at least 250 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns. He averages 330.7 passing YPG, 3.5 passing TD/G and 27.3 DK FPG over that stretch. Since Week 5, Ja’Marr Chase ranks 1st (27.2) and Tee Higgins ranks 4th (19.6) among all WRs in DK FPG.

Scary Terry SZN. He cleared a 35% first-read target share for just the second time all year (41.2%), scoring 26.3 fantasy points on a season-high 22.0 XFP. He’s now exceeded 15.5 DK fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games or has high 24.0 plus DK fantasy points in 3 straight games. Even in a tough matchup vs the Eagles, he’s a low-end WR1.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 16 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇

• Week 16 Playoff Preview. Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast

• Sleepers and Week 16 Winners. Listen: NFL First Read

• Fantasy Playoff Hot Takes & Risers. Listen: School of Scott 

• Ranking the 2025 NFL Free Agent Class For Dynasty. Listen: Dynasty Points

• Sharp Week 16 Wagers. Listen: NFL Best Bets

Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!

Starts/Sits

Week 16 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 16.

Start Drake London. We expect Penix to provide a nice spark for the Falcons’ dormant deep passing attack. In his last three starts, Cousins’ 16% turnover-worthy throw rate on passes of 10+ air yards led all QBs. London is a low-end WR2 with upside.

Sit D’Andre Swift. Over the last four weeks, Swift has been held to 186 scoreless rushing yards on 57 carries (3.3 YPC). He has 2 or fewer catches in 9 of 14 games. Roschon Johnson is back this week and he’ll likely take more goal-line work.

Start Jordan Addison. He’s become more consistently involved with at least 19% off the targets in five straight games and averaging 21.5 FPG in that period. He has six or more targets in every game in that span, and he trails Jefferson by only two percent in first-read target share.

Sit Demario Douglas. He hasn’t finished higher than WR31 in PPR fantasy scoring in eight straight games and his 54% route participation in Week 15 marked the second-lowest rate of his season. Boutte remains the top Pats WR in routes.

Read the full Week 16 Start/Sit article.

Atlanta Falcons (38%) vs CAR. Last week they had four sacks, two picks, and two blocked kicks vs Vegas. This week, they get the Giants and Tommy DeVito. Christmas comes early for the Falcons, per Drake’s Week 16 Streaming D/STs.

The JSN show. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 18.3+ FP in five of his last 6 games and has hit 69+ yards and 4+ receptions in seven straight games…double digits in 10 of his last 11 contests. JSN is pacing DK in target share and YPRR since their Week 10 bye…you can count on him to perform down the stretch, per Brolley’s Week 16 Game Hub.

All Systems Go - Rome Odunze vs Kindle Vildor. For a majority of his routes, Odunze will line up against Vildor who’s had a tough year after getting thrown into action with the Lions’ injuries. It’s tough to trust Caleb Williams and his weapons right now, but Odunze is cheap in DFS and a worthy dart throw if you need someone in the flex, per Dolan’s Week 16 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Market Report & Bets

Upgrade - Brian Thomas Jr. Losing TLaw doesn’t matter - the Jags rookie phenom shredded the Jets for 10/105/2, and he’s making a case for WR1 status in the final two games. He’s earned 10-plus targets in three straight games and will likely be drafted in Round 2 of 2025 drafts.

Downgrade - Deebo Samuel. He’s struggling badly and had a pitiful performance last week vs the Rams. He’s failed to top 35 scrimmage yards and 6.1 FP in five straight games, and he’s scored more than 12.6 FP just once since the first two weeks of the season. He can’t be trusted in your fantasy lineup.

Upgrade - Rico Dowdle. He’s seen more than a 52% snap rate in five games this season, which has occurred in each of the previous four games. In those games, he’s averaged more than 20 RB opportunities and 70% of the offensive snaps…RB2 range moving forward.

Downgrade - Amari Cooper. In a game where Josh Allen attempted 34 passes, Amari Cooper was a ghost for Buffalo - running just 15 routes and getting zero targets vs the Lions. Shakir is Allen’s top target, and with Coleman and Kincaid back, Cooper might be droppable if you’re in a pinch.

Read the full Week 16 Market Report to get the pulse of the NFL.

💸 Best Bets

• Brenton Strange over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). He posted 11/73 on 12 targets for the Jags last week and LV gives up the 4th most receiving YPG (64.9) and 12.3 YPR to TEs, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 16.

• Patrick Taylor Jr. over 48.5 total rushing & receiving yards (-133, Caesars). The Dolphins have allowed 114.3 total yards per game to RBs over the last five weeks, and the starting RB for the 49ers has hit 49 yards every single game this season, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 16.

• Jonnu Smith over 48.5 receiving yards (-115, DK). The Niners allow a 6.9% boost in production to his position and they don’t defend TEs particularly well, the targets should be here to hit this number, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 16.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 16.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Trying to target some defensive matchups? Read: Week 16 Advanced Matchups.

• Is DeVonta Smith about to go on a tear? Read: Five Stats To Know: Week 15.

• Want to analyze the war in the trenches? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 16.

• Curious about which players get a bump vs certain coverage shells? Read: DFS Coverage Shells Week 16.

• Looking for injury info on AJ Brown & Alvin Kamara? Read: Week 16 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 16.

• Not sure who to take in Week 14? Read: 2024 Week 16 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 16 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.