Welcome to Week 16…the fantasy semi-finals are here. Happy holidays from everyone on the Fantasy Points team! We know you’re trying to spend time with friends and family, and don’t want to be stressing over your fantasy lineup, so let us do the heavy lifting.

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The Everything Report Week 16

Scott Barrett reviews all the fantasy football usage from 2025 NFL Week 15, with everything you need to know for Week 16.

Juicy Matchups for Week 16. Using our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed tool, below is a list of players who possess the top-5 best matchups at each position in Week 16 (using only data from the past five weeks).

Quarterbacks

1. Bryce Young vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.4 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed)

2. Gardner Minshew vs. the Tennessee Titans (+7.8)

3. Justin Herbert vs. the Dallas Cowboys (+6.8)

4. Jacoby Brissett vs. the Atlanta Falcons (+5.7)

5. Tyler Shough vs. the New York Jets (+2.3)

Running Backs (Overall)

1. Saints RBs vs. the New York Jets (+8.5)

2. Bijan Robinson vs. the Arizona Cardinals (+6.3)

3. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason vs. the New York Giants (+6.2)

4. Texans RBs vs. the Las Vegas Raiders (+5.0)

5. James Cook vs. the Cleveland Browns (+4.3)

Wide Receivers (Overall)

1. Michael Wilson vs. the Atlanta Falcons (+15.2)

2. DK Metcalf vs. the Detroit Lions (+9.6)

3. Chargers WRs vs. the Dallas Cowboys (+8.0)

4. Chiefs WRs vs. the Tennessee Titans (+7.9)

5. Seahawks WRs vs. the Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)

Wide Receivers (Slot)

1. Jayden Reed vs. the Chicago Bears (+7.5)

2. Ladd McConkey vs. the Dallas Cowboys (+4.6)

3. Trey McBride (yes, this is how I’d look at it) vs. the Atlanta Falcons (+3.0)

4. Jalen Nailor vs. the New York Giants (+2.8)

5. Rashee Rice vs. the Tennessee Titans (+2.7)

Tight Ends

1. Brenton Strange vs. the Denver Broncos (+7.6)

2. Darren Waller vs. the Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5)

3. Dallas Goedert vs. the Washington Commanders (+7.2)

4. Kyle Pitts vs. the Arizona Cardinals (+5.9)

5. Panthers TEs vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.8)

Rookie RBs resurging. R.J. Harvey set season highs last week with 19 rushes and an 86% backfield carry share, led the backfield in route participation for the second straight game, and has received 8 of 9 red-zone opportunities over the past three games. That usage has produced 18.2 FPG on 17.1 XFP/G since Week 13, making him a top-15 option in Week 16 if he returns from a late-game rib injury, even against a bottom-10 schedule-adjusted matchup.

TreVeyon Henderson has also seen ideal usage, featuring in the red zone and passing game while maintaining big-play rushing efficiency, aided by four straight top-10 matchups. This week, however, the Ravens present a tougher test with a low explosive run rate (2.3%), limiting Henderson’s big-play potential. He projects as a ~top-20 option, aligning with his 12.4 XFP/G (~RB23) since Stevenson’s return.

Is Trevor Lawrence good now? Trevor Lawrence has dramatically turned his season around over the last three weeks, delivering some of the best performances of his career with ANY/A of 8.07, 9.47, and 13.44. In Week 15, he threw for 330 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and added 51 rushing yards and a score for 44.3 fantasy points - the most by a non-Josh Allen QB since Drew Brees in 2015.

Under HC Liam Coen, Lawrence has improved pocket timing (2.54 → 2.63 TTT), reduced first-read fixation (71% → 67% FRR), increased downfield aggressiveness (8.6 → 11.5 aDOT), and significantly boosted accuracy (+2.2% → +8.4% CPOE). The addition of Jakobi Meyers and the healthy return of Brian Thomas Jr. have allowed Lawrence to trust his receivers and process the game faster, making him a low-end QB1 this week, with Meyers as a fringe WR2 and BTJ as a mid-range WR3.

Find league winners & more in The Everything Report Week 16.

Week 16 Starts/Sits

Graham Barfield lists the stats you need to help make your toughest lineup decisions for Week 16.

Start Zay Flowers. Has earned 31% and 42% of the Ravens’ targets in his last two games. If Baltimore has to throw more this week, Flowers will push for 10+ targets in this potential shootout. He’s among the best WR2 options on this slate.

Start Rico Dowdle. Doubled up Hubbard in carries (16 to 8) last week. Tampa Bay’s usually stout run defense has cracked this midseason, allowing 4.6 YPC (eighth-most) over the last eight weeks.

Start Oronde Gadsden. After spending the past two weeks on the sit list, Gadsden is back in a strong spot in this matchup with legitimate upside. He has dominated zone coverage this season (2.66 YPRR, TE2), and Dallas plays zone on 77% of dropbacks, while Gadsden’s 10.4 aDOT over the last eight weeks trails only Darren Waller among tight ends.

Sit Stefon Diggs. The Patriots have cut down Diggs’ route share to 51%, 56%, and 59% over their last three games. With just part-time route participation, Diggs has just 8/72 receiving on 11 targets in his last three games. Diggs was starting to really gain steam, too - he was averaging 14.8 PPR FPG across his previous eight outings in Weeks 4-11.

Sit Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. In his first start, Philip Rivers got the ball out very quickly (2.3 seconds on average) and threw extremely shallow passes (4.8-yard average depth of throw). It’s just not enough to make these Colts WRs usable options in fantasy. Pierce’s upside is completely shot because Rivers can’t push the ball down the field.

Sit Jaylen Waddle. It was a tough individual matchup for Waddle last week against Joey Porter Jr., and he was effectively erased (2/26 receiving). With a QB change and another difficult matchup ahead - DJ Turner expected to shadow him - there is significant hesitation to use Waddle in semifinal lineups.

Read the full article for advice on who to start & sit throughout the entire Week 16 slate.

Minnesota Vikings (35%) @ NYG. The Giants have allowed return touchdowns in back-to-back games, a quirky factor in the wacky MetLife winds - and now, Minnesota brings heavy pressure in Week 15. The Vikings blitz at a league-high rate (39.5%) and rank third in pressure rate, setting Brian Flores up to overwhelm Jaxson Dart and create turnover opportunities for fantasy lineups, per Drake’s Week 16 Streaming D/STs.

Target Adonai Mitchell. The Saints run Cover 3 and single-high at top-tier rates, a matchup that strongly favors Mitchell, who ranks among the league’s best in YPRR and TPRR against those shells. Beyond scheme, Mitchell’s role has exploded over the last five games, leading the NFL in air yards share (51%) while averaging 8.0 targets and ~WR15–16 usage metrics. After producing immediately with Brady Cook in his first start, Mitchell profiles as an elite salary saver with slate-breaking upside if faded, per Heath’s Week 16 Advanced Matchups.

All Systems Go! Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs Lions DBs. Metcalf is coming off a season-high 148 yards against Baltimore and a 28-yard catch-and-run TD on Monday night versus Miami. As 7-point road underdogs with a 52.5 total, Pittsburgh should be forced to throw more, which sets up well against a Lions defense allowing the most receiving yards and FPG to perimeter WRs over the last five weeks. With 80% of his routes coming outside, Metcalf is underpriced at $5,400 on DraftKings, his sub-60-yard prop looks too low, and he’s a must-start WR2 in season-long formats, per Dolan’s Week 16 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Market Trends

Trends, Sleepers, Breakouts & more

Can Kyle Pitts do it again? Kyle Pitts exploded for 11/166/3 on a 27% target share last week and has now hit 8+ targets, 6+ catches, and 82+ yards in three straight games with Drake London out. He matches up well with Arizona’s Cover 3/4-heavy defense, which allows top-10 production to tight ends, including Dalton Schultz’s 8/76/1 line last week, per Brolley’s 2025 Week 16 Game Hub.

Michael Carter is relevant again. Michael Carter appears poised for another late-season takeover after Bam Knight exited in Week 15, as he handled a massive 78% of backfield carries, earned a 10% target share, and logged Arizona’s only carry inside the 10-yard line- the team’s highest RB carry share since James Conner in Week 2. With the Cardinals seemingly out of committee options and favorable upcoming matchups against the Falcons and Bengals, both top-12 schedule-adjusted RB defenses recently, Carter looks like a fringe top-24 RB for the rest of the season, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know: 2025 Week 15.

Stock Up: Trevor Lawrence. Liam Coen has revitalized Trevor Lawrence, who is playing the best football of his career and has completely reversed his dynasty outlook after bottoming out as QB22 last season. Under Coen’s offense, Lawrence ranks QB7 with 23 passing TDs, six rushing scores, and QB1 finishes in four of his last five games, including a six-TD eruption in Week 15. With Jacksonville sitting at 10–4 and closing the season against division rivals, Lawrence carries massive momentum into both the NFL playoffs and 2026, per Gremminger’s Dynasty Market Report: Week 16.

💸 Best Bets

• Jalen Nailor over 21.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM). Nailor has posted 3+ receptions and 30+ yards in back-to-back games, and he excels against man coverage, averaging a team-best 2.17 YPRR and .21 TPRR that jumps to 3.74 YPRR and .26 TPRR in games started by McCarthy. The Giants run man coverage at the third-highest rate (39%) and allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game (78.7) and eighth-most YPRR (1.90) to slot receivers, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 16.

• Must play TD Props per Kelley’s Paul’s Props and Touchdowns: Week 15:

  • Woody Marks (+115, FD)

  • Bucky Irving (+155, DK)

• Need to find some defensive props? Read: Defensive Player Prop Bets: Week 16.

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