1. Scott Barrett x JJ Zachariason 🔥

2. QB Passing Tendencies 👀

3. Draft Resources 👨‍🍳

4. Podcast Corner 📺

The School of Scott

Scott Barrett x JJ Zachariason

Scott Barrett is joined by late-round QB legend JJ Zachariason to discuss the 2024 Fantasy QB situation.

On Elite QBs. In 11 of the last 12 years, you’re always better off being one of the last people in your league to take a QB based on positional value, and Scott believes the insane 2022 outlier year for QBs changed the industries perception of the position.

JJ believes predictability is important here when spending high draft capital on QB. The QB1 can ‘pretty easily’ have an outlier season, so JJ averages QB1 and QB3 stats next to the QB10 and QB12 average stats to determine how big of an advantage the high end QBs would have gotten you in previous seasons. Overall, the last few years, there’s not a huge difference between these two averages. But if you value predictability in your QB, look for their rushing production to give you a safe floor - and count on their arm to give you their ceiling.

On Late Round QBs. Based on the statistics, if you drafted ZERO QBs within the last handful of years and played the streaming game, you’d end up at the end of the year with a general production of a mid-QB1 - is there a better strategy than this?

JJ believes people are starting to get smarter and understand what makes QBs valuable in fantasy, like their legs; rushing QBs are game-breakers. If you played this strategy last year, there’s a great chance you ended up with Jordan Love, CJ Stroud or Purdy - which would have put you ahead of your league-mates.

On JJ’s Favorite QBs. There are pockets of QBs JJ leans towards and deploys strategies based on where those QBs are being drafted. He's staying mostly away than pocket passing top 6 QBs like CJ Stroud and would rather take a shot on mobile guys like Kyler Murray.

JJ beleives Murray has shades of Hurts and Allen in the years before they broke out. Better weapons, healthy, mobile and ready to make a difference. He's being drafted at his floor - and he doesn't see much of a difference between Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray. Kyler could be a league winner this year.

Watch the full video below for more insight on how to attack QB in your drafts.

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🎯 Draft Resources

• Maybe you want the Guru’s plan in an article? Read The Guru’s 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Plan.

• Play in a 14 or 16 team league? Read The Guru’s 2024 Large-League Draft Plan.

• Want Scott’s strategy? Read Scott Barrett’s 2024 Fantasy Draft Guide.

• Use an IDP? Read Varnes’s 2024 IDP Draft Plan.

• Want Rankings? Read Barfield’s 2024 Fantasy Top 150 In Tiers.

• Looking for sleepers? Read 2024 “Mr. Relevant” Late-Round Targets.

• Want to stream more this year? Read Heath’s 2024 How To Draft and Stream D/STs.

• Play in 2 QB leagues? Read Barfield’s 2024 Superflex/2QB Fantasy Football Draft Plan.

• Need to know how to win drafting from a specific position? Here’s a thread with a video on how to draft from each slot from 1-12.

• Finding your guys? Read 2024 League-Winners, Targets and Values.

• Identifying red flags? Read 2024 Players To Avoid and Overvalues.

QB Target Tendencies

Most Targeted Positions Per QB

Jake Tribbey uses Fantasy Points Data to determine which QBs target certain positions.

Running Backs

Bo Nix posted a 19% RB target share in his final college season, and Tribbey expects more of the same in Denver. Sean Payton offenses beg for check-downs (top-8 in RB receptions in each of his last five seasons), so adding a QB already prone to RB throws is near-ideal for fantasy. Get some shares of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin.

Will Levis posted the single-highest aDOT (11.1) last season, yet still managed to target RBs at a top-5 rate. If Levis keeps up his RB target rate and Tennessee throws as much as the Bengals did last year with new coach Brian Callahan, this backfield will jump from the 19th-most RB targets (99) to the 2nd-most (141.5). Tribbey is all in on Tyjae Spears and not shying away from Tony Pollard.

Slot Pass Catchers

Aaron Rodgers’ affinity for the slot likely benefits Tyler Conklin, who ranked 2nd among returning Jets in slot rate (60%). Tribbey doesn’t see elite upside here, but Conklin is one of the most obvious TE values of the offseason.

Jalen Hurts’ slot target rate could be in for a dramatic shift with Kellen Moore now calling the plays - Devonta Smith is likely to emerge with the most upside here. Smith holds the PFF college-era record for YPRR from the slot (4.96) and he ranks 7th-best of 119 WRs in YPRR from the slot (2.48 vs. 1.66 on all other routes) since entering the NFL. AJ Brown ranks 28th (1.76). Great value.

Wide Pass Catchers

Geno Smith’s aggressive targeting of outside pass-catchers hurt Jaxon Smith-Njigba (69% slot rate), alongside the Seahawks’ unwillingness to even put Smith-Njigba on the field (71% route share). New Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb just got three WRs (Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan) drafted in Rounds 1, 2, and 3, so there is a chance a massive uptick in three WR sets massively boosts the fantasy output we see from Smith-Njigba. Take a shot on JSN in a potential year two breakout.

Jared Goff is not friendly to receivers playing primarily on the outside. Josh Reynolds (7.6 FPG) led the Lions outside WRs last year to a WR69 finish, and DJ Chark (6.9 FPG) didn’t fair much better in 2022 (WR58). With no scheme or QB change in sight, this isn’t exactly encouraging for Jameson Williams (ADP: WR46). Spike-week potential keeps Williams viable in best-ball formats, but Tribbey isn’t chasing Williams elsewhere.

Tight Ends

Kirk Cousins aggressively targeting TEs means this could be the year for Kyle Pitts. Over the past two seasons, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are the only TEs to have averaged more expected fantasy points per route run (XFP/RR) than Pitts, the quality and quantity of the targets were just lacking. Over the last two seasons, the Vikings passing attack with Cousins under center has averaged +50% more catchable targets per game (30.1) than Atlanta (20.0). Pitts has immense potential.

Josh Allen has a bottom-5 TE target rate, but some expect a big jump in usage due to a lack in WR talent. Last season, Kincaid averaged +6.8 more FPG without Dawson Knox on the field (14.2 FPG) than with him (7.2 FPG). Knox is still expected to be a big part of this TE rotation, and we need to acknowledge serious volume concerns. Kincaid beating ADP faces the serious headwinds of historic QB tendencies, sub-optimal TE rotations, and a run-first offense.

For the full list of every starting QB and what percentages they target each position, read Tribbey’s QB Positional Target Tendencies.

📺 Podcast Corner

• Adam Caplan x Fantasy Points Podcast

• Jakob Sanderson talks dynasty domination. Watch: Unlocking The Secret To Dynasty Fantasy Football Success

• Theo Gremminger discusses player value shifts. Watch: 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Values To Buy AND Sell

• WWE x Fantasy Points? Watch: The Miz & The Guru Go Head To Head

📖 Quick Hitters

• Looking for the best, dankest stats? Read Barfield’s 2024’s 69 Stats.

• Getting in some last-minute bets? Read Brolley’s Best Bets: 2024 NFL Futures.

• Can’t wait for Week 1? Read Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets: 2024 Week 1.

• Curious about one of the world's most prestigious and high-stakes fantasy football contests? Read Gremminger’s 2024 FFPC Main Event Draft Review.

• Waiting for the dust to settle after cuts? Read Brolley’s 2024 NFL Training Camp News: Cutdown Week.