1. Starts and Sits 🔥

2. Market Report 👨‍🍳

3. Best Bets 💸

4. Podcast Corner 📺

The Everything Report

Superman Has Red Hair

Is Dalton Superman for Carolina? Diontae Johnson hit a career-high in receiving yards, catching 8 of 14 targets for 122 yards and a TD - with Thielen missing time, Johnson is fully back as a high-end WR2. Hubbard also popped with 169 YFS totaling 27.9 FP, a great sign for Exodia RB Jonathon Brooks, who should be back in Week 5. Brooks has the potential to be what Rachaad White was last year under Canales if he takes the projected bell-cow role.

Jayden Daniels is the Exodia. Daniels is absurd, averaging 57.0 rushing YPG (this can get much higher with his athleticism) and ranks 2nd only behind Josh Allen in FPG (23.2). Washington currently leads all teams in EPA per drive, and they haven’t punted or turned the ball over since Week 1. Yeah… he’s just really freaking good. 

Bucky Irving is emerging. Scott believed Irving had the best chance of being this year’s Kyren Williams pre-draft. He’s leading the team in rushing yards in three straight games, averaging 6.2 YPC to Rachaad White’s 2.1. White has still dominated near-end zone work (4 of 4 carries inside the 10-yard line) and is out-targeting Irving (18.2% to 9.1%), but Bowles said Irving has ‘earned more snaps going forward'. Watch this situation closely.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 4 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

• The Guru & Brian Drake talk Week 3. Watch: What Went Wrong in Week 3

• Steven ORourke breaks down Brandon Aiyuk. Watch: Brandon Aiyuk Is Still Separating At An Elite Level

• Brett Whitefield & Joe Marino talk NFL power rankings. Watch: Week 4 Power Rankings: Shocking Top 5 Teams Revealed

Starts/Sits

Week 4 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 4.

Start Zack Moss. Moss led the backfield in Week 3 and is the Bengals red zone RB with an 84% snap rate. He also owns early downs, with 33 carries to Brown’s 14. Surprisingly, Moss has also run far more routes than Brown (68 to 21). He’s a great RB2 play.

Sit Michael Pittman. Through three games Pittman has just 88 yards on 20 targets. Josh Downs made his season debut last weekend and immediately tied Pittman for the team lead in targets (5). Until Anthony Richardson can dial in his accuracy, Pittman needs to sit.

Start Chris Olave. After a sleepy Week 1-2, Olave cooked the Eagles for 6/81/1. Atlanta has been hammered by top wideouts Pickens (6/85) DeVonta Smith (7/76/1) and Rice (12/110/1). Olave leads all WRs in A.S.S. (.442) and route win rate (39.5%) when out wide.

Sit Kyle Pitts. His first-read target share this season is 7.4%, ranking 30th among TEs. Since the start of last season, Pitts has seen five or fewer targets in 15 of his last 20 games… at a certain point, we might have to accept who Kyle Pitts actually is.

Stash Drake Maye. He should be starting soon and could be fantasy-relevant with his 11.1% scramble rate, which is on par with Fields and Jackson in college. Maye averaged 40.3 rushing yards per game and he scored 16 rushing TDs in his final two seasons at UNC.

Read the full Week 4 Start/Sit article or watch the YT version below!

Tennessee Titans (3%) @ MIA - If the Dolphins have to roll with Tim Boyle this week, you abandon ship on all MIA skill players and hammer the Titans D/ST. Always target backup QBs, per Drake’s Week 4 Streaming D/STs.

Looking ahead to week 5: Seattle vs NYG, Denver vs LV, New England vs MIA

Rome Odunze breakout party is here. Odunze exploded for 6/112/1 receiving on 11 targets against the Colts. This week he gets the Rams, who have been obliterated by WRs the last few weeks - Juan Jennings (11/175/3), Marvin Harrison Jr (4/130/2) and Jameson Williams (5/121/1), per Brolley’s Week 4 Game Hub.

Nico Collins takeover. HOU currently holds the second-highest team total of the week (25.75) and are favored by 5.5 points. The Jags deploy the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (61.4%) and the highest rate of single-high (64.0%). As long as Collins is on the field (hamstring), he should feast, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 4.

Avoid Bowers vs The Browns. The Browns have played the most single-high in the NFL this year (74.5%), the 4th most man coverage (40.9%) and they’re top 3 in Cover 1 usage (40.0%). Bowers has zero targets on 10 routes against Cover 1, amassing 70% of his FP against two-high shells, per Heath’s Week 4 Advanced Matchups.

Shadow Alert! Packers CB Jaire Alexander vs Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. These two have had some legendary battles. Week 1 of 2022, JJ popped for 9/184/2, which Alexander called a ‘fluke’. In Week 17, JJ only had 1 catch for 15 yards. Don’t bench him (obviously), just get your popcorn ready, per Dolan’s Week 4 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Trends & Trades

Week 4 Market Report

What players get upgrades & downgrades from Week 3?

Upgrade - Aaron Jones. Jones proved he’s still explosive after posting 19/102 rushing and 5/46/1 receiving vs the Texans. He’s accounted for 94+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight games, totaling 109+ scrimmage yards. This is a #RevengeGame loading for Jones heading back to Lambeau Field.

Downgrade - Travis Kelce. Kelce has failed to score more than 7 FP for the third straight week - he’s officially a wasted third-round draft pick. Rashee Rice is Mahome’s new favorite target, and the Chiefs will likely keep Klece healthy till the playoffs. His days as an elite TE1 are behind him, but you just have to ride it out.

Watchlist - Trey McBride. As the second option for the Cardinals, McBride has a 27.8% first-read target rate similar to the second half of 2023. There’s nothing in the numbers that point to the decrease in production through three weeks of 2024, although you have a right to be nervous that his sole TD came on an end-zone fumble recovery.

More risers, fallers and must-watch players at every position - Week 4 Market Report.

Buying & Selling

Buy Jayden Reed. He averages 19.1 FPG over his last 9 games with Jordan Love (would have been WR6 last year) and has a chance to do something special ROS…go get him while he’s still undervalued, per Hanesn’s Week 4 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Kyler Murray. He’s currently 2nd with 18.6% deep throw rate but only 15th in YPA and 20th in adjusted completion percentage. If he doesn’t hit the big play, he’ll be in trouble. His rushing floor is nice, but go get great value for him while the early season hype is still there, per Hansen’s Week 4 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Unload Josh Jacobs for a haul. If you can get a league-mate to bite on Jacobs as a fringe top-12 RB value, now is the time. Even with Love out and Marshawn Lloyd on the IR, Jacobs still didn’t get bell cow usage. Emmanual Wilson hit 35.3% carry share and 14.3% target share. LaFleur has told us he likes to utilize a committee, we need to believe him, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 3.

💸 Best Bets

• George Pickens over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM). Removing the game he faced Pat Surtain, he leads PIT in target share (24%) and air yards share (49.9%). IND is giving up the second-most YPRR and the fourth-most receiving YPG (132.7) to receivers aligned out wide, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 4.

• De’Von Achane over 2.5 receptions (-152 FD). Achane has 3+ grabs in every game this season, including last week with the Dolphins second and third-string QBs. MIA will scheme up at least three catches for Achane, who will need to get going for them to compete in this game, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 4.

• Rashid Shaheed over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 Bet365). Since the beginning of 2023, Shaheed averages 2.13 yards per route run vs. zone coverages (dips to 1.37 YPRR vs. man). That’s a +55% difference. Atlanta is playing 12-most zone coverage (73%), per Barfield’s Best Bets Week 4.

• Travis Etienne Anytime TD (+120 DK). The Jags should lean on Etienne and the run game to establish an identity in Week 4. Etienne has four intended red zone touches per game, good for 6th-most in the league, and HOU has given up the 6th most rushes inside the 5-yard line this year, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 4.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 4.

Injury Report

Dr. Edwin Porras on relevant injuries and risks for Week 4.

Christian McCaffrey - Achillies. Despite his trip to Germany, CMC’s risk is not much higher than it was at the start of the season. It’s implied at this point that the tendinopathy has been the concern this entire time. There was probably only mild calf soreness. What does that mean?

McCaffrey needs time. The Niners and McCaffrey likely fear he’ll tear his Achilles due to this long-term issue, which is justified. Still, as a Power Law player, you should still be targeting CMC at a discount and absorb the risk, especially if you’re 3-0. Projected return: Week 10-11

Cooper Kupp - High Ankle. Kupp wasn’t placed on IR, which can lead us to believe that Kupp has no fracture of the ankle, as he’s been seen with an ice/compression device. The average amount of time for WRs off this injury is 2.5 weeks. Projected return: Week 5 or 7

Chris Olave & Nico Collins - Hamstring. Here are some WRs who popped up on the report with a hammy late in the week and scored 14+ fantasy points: Laviska Shenault Jr., Mike Evans, Braxton Berrios, Julio Jones. In other words, start Nico and Olave everywhere.

Read Dr. Edwin Porras’ article - updated through the 11:30 am inactive here: Week 4 Injury Report.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Want to be a better dynasty league-mate? Read: The Prisoner’s Dilemma In Dynasty.

• Want to know dynasty upgrades & downgrades? Read: Dynasty Market Report: Week 4.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 4.

• Not sure who to take in Week 4? Read: 2024 Week 4 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 4 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.