Welcome to a beautiful Sunday, one that marks the start of draft season. We’re glad to join you on the never-ending title chase that never ends with you in a waffle house. Thankfully, with Fantasy Points, you’re more likely to run out of space for trophies.

Last night, Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor formally requested a trade after meeting with owner Jim Irsay, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Per Josina Anderson, requesting a trade is Taylor's only move (if he holds out, it would cost him an accrued season, which delays his entry into unrestricted free agency) - Taylor’s agent likely hope this pushes a team to offer a multi-yr deal to secure Taylor beyond '23.

• Dopest Landing Spots: Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Rams, Vikings, Dolphins

• Most Likely Landing Spots: Dolphins, Jets, Bears, Rams, Bills, Eagles

Colts owner Jim Irsay responded: “We’re not trading Jonathan… end of discussion. Not now and not in October!” We’re keep a close eye on this, and on Bills and Bengals fans (if Taylor goes to the Chiefs…).

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

POPULAR

Most Important Stats

This series examines the most important stats across positions that our data collection team procured after charting every single NFL game for two years.

We look at all our stats to find those with the closest correlation to fantasy output; what stats are most closely tied with output.

RUNNERS

This year, there are very few running backs that are true bell cows. With the rise of committee backfields, we must understand the value a particular running back brings to their role. A few key takeaways from our 2-year review:

Tony Pollard has a top-3 ceiling at the position if he gets into the 65-70% red-zone snap range this season with Ezekiel Elliott gone. Pollard was RB9 by fantasy points per game, but ranked only RB19 in red-zone snap rate last season. If you give Pollard just 35% of Elliott’s red-zone role last season, it would have been enough of a bump to take Pollard from RB9 to tied for RB5 with Barkley. Only two RBs ranked top-10 in YPC on both zone- and man-blocking concepts last season…

• The first one is obvious: Nick Chubb (4.92 YPC-zone | 5.19 YPC-man).

• The second? Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard (3.84) and Nick Chubb (3.52) were also the league leaders in yards after contact per carry last season. Feed Tony!

James Conner’s ADP (RB26) makes no sense. Arizona won’t be an offensive juggernaut, but that price is disrespectful for Conner’s role. Conner was RB9 in snap rate inside-the-20 last season and the Cardinals now have less competition for goal-line carries than ever. Also, Conner has been a legitimately great short-yardage back in his career. Since 2018, only Derrick Henry (52.7%) has converted a higher rate of his carries inside-the-5 (goal-line) into touchdowns than Conner (52.5%) among RBs.

Jonathan Taylor has gone from being the first overall pick in 2022 to 16-18th overall in Underdog best ball drafts, a massive value if you are chasing volume. Taylor was an unsung bell cow last season, ranking third in snap rate when trailing (72.8%) – just behind McCaffrey (75%) and Barkley (76.2%). He also averaged 20.8 routes run per game, fifth-most among running backs.

Read the full article - it could be the difference between landing 2022 Tony Pollard or 2022 Ezekiel Elliott.

CATCHERS

It is rare to find a never-before-used stat that is both useful and predictive for fantasy football. But we did it: First Reads.

What is a first read? It is the first option the QB checks after taking the snap. That could mean a single receiver’s route, such as a designed screen, or multiple receivers running routes on one side of the field. If the QB throws somewhere within this original window of opportunity, the targeted receiver is credited with a first-read target.

How important are first reads? First reads represent the offense’s original intention, and 88% of targets to WRs and TEs came on a designed play or a first read. Importantly, the vast majority of fantasy points are scored on first reads.

Without first reads, Justin Jefferson would have finished as just the WR31.

And we can use 2022 to predict 2023. First-read target share sports a 0.78 correlation to itself the following year, as well as a 0.79 correlation with next-season FPG (PPR scoring). Ryan Heath dives deep in first read targets here.

A few key takeaways for 2023:

🔥 Elijah Moore, in particular, has a compelling upside case. As a rookie, he immediately proved he could win both inside (as he did in college) and outside, his 1.95 YPRR from out wide ranking 23rd overall and 3rd among rookies, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle (min. 200 routes). Aside from fewer games played, Moore’s rookie campaign as a whole was quite similar to Amon Ra St. Brown’s and DeVonta Smith’s, with the trio rightfully viewed as similar bets entering 2022.

While Moore’s sophomore season was an abject disaster, on the occasions Moore did get the ball, he was electric – ranking 2nd with 0.32 missed tackles forced per reception behind only Deebo Samuel. If considering only first and designed reads, Moore’s yards per target was 7.96 – virtually identical to Garrett Wilson’s 7.89.

👉️ Darius Slayton’s 20.3% first-read target share was enough to lead all Giants receivers last year (aside from Sterling Shepard, who played only three games). He’s also a more explosive playmaker than he often gets credit for, ranking 6th among all WRs/TEs in depth-adjusted yards after catch per reception.

While the team has added a number of playmakers this offseason, nearly all of them are best suited for the slot, giving Slayton a clear path to starting on the outside. That’s a signal the coaching staff might be getting higher on him – after all, Slayton remarkably went from being a healthy scratch at the start of 2022 to re-signing with the team this offseason.

Read the full article for Ryan’s take on Courtland Sutton 👀 

Franchise Focus

NFC North

This NFC North review is part of our Franchise Focus series, where we break down each NFL team from a fantasy perspective.

Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown showed his WR2 run in the final six weeks of his rookie season was no fluke by registering a top-12 WR campaign in his second season. St. Brown posted 106/1161/6 receiving on 146 targets (26.1% share) to finish as the WR9 with 13.4 FPG. The Lions deployed him all over the field last season, with his slot rate going from 76.7% in 2021 to 58.4% in 2022.

His aDOT remained largely the same despite more perimeter opportunities, going from 6.7 yards in 2021 to 6.4 in 2022, but his YPRR skyrocketed from 1.83 yards to 2.56 in Year 2. He ranked seventh at the position in YPRR, which he largely accomplished by finishing with the third-most YAC with 559 yards (per Fantasy Points Data).He’s been a perfect fit with Jared Goff’s skill set, who has loved targeting slot receivers.

St. Brown finished behind only Tyreek Hill with .31 targets per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). The one knock against him is that he’s seen just 10 end-zone targets and 12 targets from inside the 10-yard line in his first two seasons. St. Brown could see some positive touchdown regression with Jamaal Williams’ 17 touchdowns leaving in free agency, and he’ll have little competition for targets early in the season.

The full article dives deep into the RB situation in Detroit - read on about Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Bears

Khalil Herbert has been one of the most efficient and explosive runners since entering the league. On his limited sample of carries, Herbert is averaging 5.0 YPC (14th-best since 2000), while ranking 6th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29) and 3rd in yards after contact per attempt (3.7) last season.

In just seven career games with more than a dozen carries, Herbert averages an impressive 96.7 rushing YPG. Measured by rush yards over expectation (RYOE), Herbert was the league’s most efficient runner on a per-carry basis last season, posting 1.44 RYOE/carry.

We have plenty of evidence to suggest Herbert is really good, and he’s likely the front-runner to lead this crowded backfield (journeyman D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson) in carries, given his talent and familiarity with the Chicago staff. His efficiency will be helped out by rushing extraordinaire Justin Fields, and his volume could be the best of his career.

But this crowded backfield suggests a potential committee approach. Bell cow-esque volume could be hard to come by for Herbert, but league-leading efficiency should fall into his lap.

Read the full article for our expectations on Justin Fields and the Bears WR group.

Packers

The Packers RBs rushed for five or more yards on 41% of their attempts (2nd-most) last season, as both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon ranked top-5 (minimum 100 rushes) in PFF rushing grades. With such talented players to hand the ball to, it wouldn’t be surprising if Green Bay embraced more of a run-first approach.

Aaron Jones has been one of the NFL’s most effective RBs since he stepped onto the field in 2017. He’s averaged an insane 5.1 YPC across his career, which ties Tony Pollard and Jonathan Taylor for the 10th-best mark all-time by an RB. He’s never logged a PFF rushing grade lower than 79.3 and he’s been just as impressive as a receiver, earning 310 targets (5th-most among RBs), 1,615 receiving yards (5th-most), and 16 receiving TDs (2nd-most) since 2019. Jones is in the RB1 conversation.

The drafting of AJ Dillon has barely impacted Jones’ raw touches, but he has limited Jones’ goal-line success. Dillon has earned 52% of the Packers i5 carries over the last two seasons, compared to just 27% for Jones. That’s killed Jones’ rushing TD output over the last two seasons (6 total), but it hasn’t notably crippled his fantasy value as he’s scored 11 TDs as a receiver over that same span.

AJ Dillon is one of the better pure rushers in the NFL as he enters his age-25 season. Dillon’s earned an absurd PFF rushing grade of 89.1 over the last two seasons; for context, Nick Chubb graded at 85.7. But Dillon’s receiving usage is severely capped by the presence of Aaron Jones. But even if this backfield is the 60/40 committee we’ve seen the last two years, Dillon still offers powerful between-the-tackles running on early downs. Dillon is in the RB3 conversation.

QB Jordan Love and WR Christian Watson are moving this team in a new direction - the full article explores their expected 2023 output and more.

Vikings

In games when Dalvin Cook was inactive, Mattison has averaged 77.5% of the team’s rush attempts (would have ranked 2nd last year behind only Josh Jacobs) and a 14.6% target share (would have ranked 7th) adding up to a 19.6 FPG average (would have ranked first among RBs). Of course, that is only a four-game sample, the Vikings have not added any depth and the Vikings re-signed Mattison to a two-year deal, suggesting the plan all along truly was to enter 2023 with Mattison as the clear starter. The team could still sign a free agent, but barring that, Mattison appears in line for one of the higher-volume roles in the league.

Mattison’s stats in his six career starts look incredible on the surface (117/477/3 rushing; 23/216/2 receiving), but there is some very important context to consider here. First, all of Mattison’s career starts were in 2020 and 2021 with their old HC and system. The high-volume rushing role that Mattison had then with Zimmer does not exist anymore with Kevin O’Connell. Secondly, Mattison’s six career starts came against predominantly terrible run defenses. Lastly, Vikings run game is a zone-based blocking scheme, and Mattison has averaged just 3.97 YPC on zone runs over the last two years. The NFL average YPC on zone-blocking runs is 4.19, putting Mattison below replacement level. With Cook gone, Mattison is an upside RB2 – but there are plenty more upside RB2s to be excited about.

As Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson look to build off 2022, read our full article for a breakdown of the entire Vikings offense.

Tweets

Christian Watson is awesome. That is all.

After what happened with Jonathan Taylor, our interview with Zach Moss was timely.

You thought we were done with Elijah Moore love?

Dynasty Corner

Startup Drafts

Nick Spanola wrote a comprehensive dynasty startup draft plan and strategy guide, looking at FFPC ADP to highlight the best values within each round.

Brandon Aiyuk is still just 25 years old and represents a stable weapon in a prolific offense. During stretches where teammates Deebo Samuel and/or George Kittle were sidelined with injuries, he’s been a more than capable WR1. Since entering the league, Aiyuk has averaged 17.8 FPG in five games without both Deebo/Kittle, and 15.7 FPG in 12 games missing just Deebo. For all the Deebo truthers, Deebo finished the 2022 season with a first-read target share of 24%, while Aiyuk led the team at 28%.

Nick discusses why Pat Freiermuth and Trey McBride are two players he’s targeting in the full article.

And if you need an intro to dynasty, you’ll want to read this article by Cooper Adams.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

Don’t forget to check out FJFantasy for an extra 10% off that live draft board and stickers you know your league deserves (or desperately needs?).

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues