Welcome to another edition of The Roundup. The long wait for NFL football is almost over, with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs kicking off the newest campaign this Thursday. Just four days…

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— JR

MOST POPULAR

Underrated Upside At Each Position

Ryan Heath gives you the players with legitimate league-winning potential at a suppressed ADP in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Snippets below.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s new play-caller Todd Monken should have the Ravens utilizing 3-WR sets far more often this year, which could benefit both Jackson’s passing (he was the league’s least-efficient passer in 12-personnel last year) and rushing. 70.5% of Jackson’s rush attempts in 2022 came with only one WR on the field – compared to only 20% for players like Justin Fields or 18.8% for Jalen Hurts. And more WRs on the field make it much, much easier for the QB to run – which everyone aside from Greg Roman has apparently figured out.

Other high-upside QBs: Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa & others in the full QB article.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs. It may come off as tacky to compare any RB to Christian McCaffrey, but the last RB to be drafted as highly as Gibbs – who was as efficient of a receiver, and approximately the same size – was quite literally Christian McCaffrey.

There’s plenty of room for Gibbs to beat his ADP – notably because the Lions’ backfield averaged a whopping 28.3 FPG-worth of opportunity (XFP) last season, with two RBs they presumably liked less than the two they currently have.

While Gibbs is unlikely to see the goal line role, expect a heavy dose of targest. Remember that for running backs, a target is worth 2.5x as much as a carry in PPR leagues. Last year, due to his receiving usage, D’Andre Swift – a player the coaching staff hated – was the RB22 in XFP/G, despite receiving just 11.8% (ranking 75th) of the team’s goal-line carries in games he was active.

If Swift had just 35% of the team’s goal-line carries, he’d have ranked as approximately the RB12 in XFP/G – above where Gibbs’ ADP currently sits on most platforms. And keep in mind, Swift played on only 41.5% of the Lions’ snaps (44th). Even a 50/50 split would mean Gibbs can easily achieve RB1-level usage, before factoring in what’s likely to be excellent efficiency.

Joe Mixon. Mixon is locked into one of the most valuable workloads in fantasy football but is glaringly mispriced as a high-end RB2. His Week 9 blowup game was the only time during all of 2022 that he didn't get insanely unlucky in the touchdown department. And snakebitten fantasy drafters are allowing you to scoop him up at his absolute floor, despite his genuine top-3 ceiling on one of the league’s best offenses.

Rashaad Penny. Last season (albeit on a very small sample), Penny led all RBs in YPC (6.07) and yards after contact per attempt (4.37). He ranked 2nd in explosive run rate (10.5%). Penny - one of those special runners in the NFL - now runs behind an elite offensive line.

Other high-upside RBs: James Conner, Rachaad White, James Cook & others in the full RB article.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Ridley. Ridley was the WR4 in FPG back in 2020 – the last time he played anything close to a full season. He did it on a 23.6% target share and 2.44 YPRR (7th-best). That matters — a lot. One of the simpler (but also better) arguments for a player’s upside will always be that they have displayed it before. Past fantasy points are highly predictive of future fantasy points.

While the Jaguars may not throw 39.3 times per game as the Falcons did during Ridley’s blow-up season, the Jaguars ranked 11th in pass plays per game last season (36.7) and 14th in early-down pass rate (61%). You’re potentially looking at Ridley in a high-volume role not unlike what he had as a Falcon – a potential WR1 you can draft at the beginning of Round 4.

Keenan Allen. The discount you’re getting on Allen this year is likely a case of fantasy drafters over-predicting an older WR’s decline. Last year, Allen displayed nothing of the sort – his 2.30 YPRR (WR12) was as good as ever. At age 31, Allen could well have multiple years left in the tank.

Jordan Addison. In 2022, Adam Thielen ran the 2nd-most routes of any player (674). That was still the case after T.J. Hockenson joined the team in Week 8. Thielen just didn’t do much for fantasy, because he ranked 4th-worst of 53 qualifying WRs in YPRR (1.06).

If Addison runs as many routes as Thielen did in 2023 and is just average in YPRR, we should expect 1,146 receiving yards. For perspective, this would have ranked 12th-best among all WRs last year.

Christian Watson. Ryan includes so many dank stats that you’ll need to read the full article. But he ends with this: “Watson is such an incredible breakout candidate and upside play, it hurts. Draft him absolutely everywhere.”

Other high-upside WRs: Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas & others in the full WR article.

Vibe Checks

Cooper Kupp: Not Great, Bob!

For over 20 years now, John Hansen has been taking his extensive experience and knowledge base and combining it with strong intuition and great contacts as the starting points for his vibes on all the players and the teams.

John’s September updates include:

Back on August 1, John published this: “Now, I have to admit, I got a bad vibe on Cooper Kupp due to that hamstring injury suffered on 8/1 that has shut him down most of the month. He’s expected back at practice at any time, and I know I’m probably overreacting, but a guy with his age/profile/cost scares me with a soft tissue injury coming back from an injury.”

There’s an example of the value of the Vibes article. We’ve moved Kupp down to a palatable ranking around 20 overall, where we’re unlikely to land him.

RB Jerome Ford is back at Browns practice, so that vibe got better in a hurry.

The Colts RB situation looks like a mess with Jonathan Taylor now set to miss four games. Zack Moss presents the most immediate value if he can get back for Week 1 and Evan Hull is John’s best bet for the long haul.

Good late vibe on Patriots rookie WR Kayshon Boutte, who made the team and has a real chance to make an impact. John said that Boutte would either get cut in camp or break their rookie team receiving records, and he’s at least on the positive side of things now.

On Tajae Spears: “I love finding second-tier prospects who can produce like top-tier guys, so Spears was one of my favorite players in the draft. I’m not surprised he’s showing extremely well. Spears has had some of the best vibes in the entire league this summer.”

Read the full article for John’s vibes on Rachaad White (hint: very good) and Kirk Cousins 👀 

ICYMI

Barrett’s 69 Stats: Three More

In case you missed it, Scott Barrett used the Fantasy Points Data Suite to dig up 69 of the most interesting stats to use in your 2023 fantasy football drafts.

Three more snippets - to give you an idea of the value packed in this article.

Bijan Robinson

5A. Last season, Atlanta Falcons RBs – Round 5 rookie Tyler Allgeier, 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson, and UDFA Caleb Huntley – led the league in rushing yards per game (129.9).

5B. They just spent a top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson, who was – according to my model – the best fantasy RB prospect to come out since at least Saquon Barkley.

Odell Beckham Jr.

8A. What do Odell Beckham Jr., Larry Fitzgerald, and Emmanuel Sanders have in common?

8B. None of them have reached 100 receiving yards in a regular season game since Joe Biden became President of the United States.

8C. And Sanders actually had more 100-yard games during Donald Trump’s term of office.

8D. Somehow, Beckham is being drafted as the WR35 on NFL.com, just behind extremely-less-washed names in Michael Pittman (WR33) and Diontae Johnson (WR34).

Gabriel Davis

9A. According to HC Sean McDermott, Gabriel Davis suffered a high ankle sprain heading into Week 2 of last season.

9B. Before that injury, he averaged 19.7 FPG over his previous seven games. (Davante Adams averaged 19.7 FPG last year.)

9C. High ankle sprains – even mild Grade 1-level high-ankle sprains – often take 3-4 months to heal fully.

9D. Davis himself admitted he was never quite the same after that, but is now back to full health, with Stefon Diggs predicting a breakout year.

9E. I was lower than the rest of the staff on Davis last year when he was being drafted as the WR17, but I love him now at his far more palatable (borderline stupid) WR46 ADP on ESPN.

Read the full article for surprising stats on Miles Sanders 📈 and Amari Cooper 😭.

Predictions

Staff 2023 Season Bets

The Fantasy Points staff gives their picks for every division, conference, the Super Bowl, the NFL's major awards, and much more.

The below list includes the most popular picks among staff, which looks bullish for the Eagles 2023 season.

• Super Bowl Champion: Eagles (3/7 votes)

• MVP: Jalen Hurts (3/7)

• OROY: Bijan Robinson (5/7)

• DPOY: T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett (tie, 2/7 each)

• Most Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes (3/7)

• Most Receiving Yards: Ja’Marr Chase (3/7)

• Most Rushing Yards: Nick Chubb (4/7)

• Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell (2/7)

• First Coach Fired: Josh McDaniels (5/7) 😂 

Read the full article here.

Tweets

Don’t be afraid to add Zack Moss - but it’s expected to be Deon Jackson + Evan Hull in the Colts backfield in Week 1.

Scott with this gem.

If you don’t draft a rookie WR, maybe trade for one after the first few weeks.

Dynasty Corner

Sophomore RB Breakouts

Pulling from Ryan Heath’s 2023 Must-Draft Players, you have no excuse for these three sophomores being absent from your roster.

Remember that RBs see their largest increase in production during Year 2. And plenty of talented RBs struggled with inefficiency in Year 1 – LaDainian Tomlinson (3.65 YPC) and Christian McCaffrey (3.72 YPC). Three sophomore RBs we’re buying:

Breece Hall. You must carefully construct your roster to make up for the fact that Breece Hall may not produce much in September as he works his way back from an ACL tear. Still, his upside makes him worth it.

As a rookie, Hall was the overall RB7 in FPG before his season-ending injury. He’d earned a bona fide bell-cow role, taking over to the tune of 66.4% of the backfield’s XFP in Weeks 3-6, which would have ranked top-10 if over the full season. Hall was also absurdly hyper-efficient, including as a receiver. He was significantly more effective than Dalvin Cook in all phases.

Rachaad White. White had an excellent prospect profile that included a three-down skillset and plenty of athleticism (92.1 SPORQ score). Though White wasn’t very efficient as a rookie, that won’t stop him from seeing a massive workload. Recent reporting has only confirmed this, with Jeremy Fowler of ESPN noting, “Not only will [White] get a heavy workload rushing, but the Bucs have been expanding his route tree, believing he can inflict damage as a receiver. They see star potential here, a smooth do-it-all option."

James Cook. Used sparingly throughout his rookie season, Cook showed out in efficiency – among all RBs who ran at least 100 routes, Cook finished top-12 in YPRR. He jumps off the page in practically any efficiency metric you can think of. Every report and source out of Buffalo confirms the team now views Cook as the clear three-down RB1 – whether you prefer to believe the beat writers, the general manager, the offensive coordinator, Josh Allen, or Cook himself. The last time the Bills deployed an RB as a true bell-cow, Devin Singletary averaged 19.7 FPG over his final seven games in 2021 (including playoffs). And that was before the offense underwent a mild makeover and began checking down more.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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