1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. Trends & Trades 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

A New WR1?

Dak is disappointing. Prescott is averaging just 16.3 FPG (QB17) despite 37.3 pass attempts per game (2nd-most) this year. Dallas is running much lower play action this season (4th-least) compared to 2023 (5th-most). Dak has been much more efficient on play-action this year, but perhaps the team has decided to use it less due to their lack of a running game - which is a mistake. Play-action is still a passing efficiency cheat code, even with a poor running game.

Breece is back. Under new play-caller Todd Downing, Breece saw truly-elite bell cow usage. Hall led all RBs in snap share last week (86.4%), handling 18 of 21 carries and 6 of 8 targets out of the backfield. Over the last two seasons, we’ve only seen 10 instances of an RB receiving 16-plus carries and 6-plus targets on an 80% snap share or better in a single game. Hall has now done that twice this year. This usage is rare and valuable; RBs average 25.6 FPG in these games. Wheels up if this usage sticks.

Drake London takeover. Since Week 2, Drake London has finished 2nd, 9th, 1st, 17th, and 2nd among all WRs in first-read target share. He leads all players in first-read target share over this span (40.5%) and ranks 4th in both XFP/G (19.1) and FPG (20.9). It’s time to start viewing him as a top-5 WR for fantasy…there’s a pretty good chance he could finish the season as fantasy’s overall WR1.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 7 Everything Report.

Starts/Sits

Week 7 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 7.

Start Jameson Williams. He leads the Lions in targets (12) over St. Brown (11) when Goff has been blitzed this season. Williams has shredded blitzed looks to the tune of 8/210/1 receiving (4.77 YPRR). The Vikings allow the second-most yards per game (127) to opposing outside receivers. He remains an exciting WR2.

Sit Michael Pittman. Playing through a back issue for the near future. Pittman was slightly limited (74% route share) in Week 5 from his usual 84-88% involvement. Richardson needs to dial in his accuracy before we get excited about Colts WRs.

Start Kyle Pitts. Seattle is a great matchup to target for opposing TEs. The Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most yards per game (57.3) and the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+5.1) to opposing tight ends.

Sit Patrick Mahomes. He’s finished as the QB15, QB14, QB17, QB17, and QB20 in weekly scoring in his first five starts - and Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scoring QB once in his last 14 games, dating back to last year. His 3.8 TD% is a career-low.

Stash Kimani Vidal. He’s one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy now with Gus Edwards on the IR…Vidal is worth a bench spot for pure upside.

Read the full Week 7 Start/Sit article

Cincinnati Bengals (17%) vs CLE. The Browns offensive line is in shambles. Watson has been sacked at least five times in four of six games - and now he’ll have to adjust to life without Amari Cooper. Chubb will be back, and the Bengals defense isn’t a great unit, but let’s not overthink this, per Drake’s Week 7 Streaming D/STs. 

Battle of the North. The Vikings also allow the 2nd-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing RBs (15.6) but the highest PPG to opposing WRs (44.7), with Vikings DC Brian Flores primarily running two-high shells coverage (74.4%). Lions OC Ben Johnson might cook up some volume to Amon-Ra & Jameson Williams, who both have smash two-high opportunities in 2024 per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 7. 

Shadow Alert! Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. vs Jets WR Davante Adams. In his first week back with Rodgers, Adams will likely face the shadow from one of the best corners in the league. Porter Jr hasn’t allowed a single TD in his primary coverage this year and only had one WR top 2 catches of 30 yards on him. Adams will be force-fed, but this matchup is scary, per Dolan’s Week 7 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Trends & Trades

Sell Alvin Kamara. Of 61 RBs with at least 25 carries, he’s 44th in MTF/Att, 48th in YAC/Att, and 31st in explosive run %. He’s been at 3.3 YPC or lower in 3 of his last 4, and while he’ll likely catch a lot of balls from Rattler, the Guru thinks you should sell before this team fully tanks, per Hanesn’s Week 7 Players To Trade/Trade For.

The Bijan Robinson Problem. Bijan hasn’t been healthy over the past couple of weeks, which has coincided with the Falcons becoming more pass-heavy and getting Allgeier more involved. Bijan delivered last week, but he and Allgeier split carries inside the 10-yard line evenly, 3 to 3.

We should expect a similar workload for both backs moving forward, especially if Bijan appears on the injury report. It’s early to think about, but the Falcon’s playoff schedule (@ LV, @ NYG, vs. WAS) looks excellent right now, so Ryan would only sell if you’re getting true RB1 value in return, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 6.

Tony Pollard will pop. With Spears hurt, Pollard should have a full monopoly of backfield routes. The Bills allow the highest target share (21.7%) and the most receiving YPG (57.0) to opposing backfields. 70.5% of Pollard’s rush attempts have come on man/gap concepts, and the Bills are allowing 5.93 YPC (2nd most) on these carries, per Heath’s Week 7 Advanced Matchups.

💸 Best Bets

• Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards (-115, Bet365). Maye went for 5/38 rushing in his first start and averaged 44.1 rushing YPG at UNC. The Jags give up the 7th most rushing YPG (28.3) to QBs, and Caleb Williams ran for 56 yards on them in Week 6, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 7.

• Christian Kirk over 3.5 receptions (BetMGM). When Kirk has a good schematic matchup he comes through…and when he doesn’t, he doesn’t. Kirk excels against man coverage. The Patriots play man at the 5th-highest clip in the league, plus WR Brian Thomas could draw the tough Christian Gonzalez shadow forcing more targets Kirk’s way, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 7.

• Brock Bowers Anytime TD (+200 DK). The Rams allow a league-worst 1.87 YPRR to opposing receivers, a league-worst 1.5 yards per target over expectation and the ninth-worst 74.2% target rate allowed to first-read targets…without Davante Adams (trade) or Jakobi Meyers (injury), this is a smash, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 7.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 7.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Wondering why the FP team is spooked by Mason & Lamb? Read: The Market Report Week 7.

• Love our Data Suite? Read: Fantasy Points Data Suite: New Tools.

• Looking for injury info on Kupp, Chubb & more? Read: Week 7 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Want to know the dynasty fallout from big NFL trades? Read: Dynasty Fallout: Adams and Cooper Trades.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 7.

• Not sure who to take in Week 7? Read: 2024 Week 7 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 7 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.