Welcome to another edition of The Roundup, where we ensure you have the tools to win titles. Consider us the opposite of what Steelers OC Matt Canada is for offensive production in Pittsburgh (The Steelers scored 29 touchdowns last year — only the Colts (28) had fewer)…

Yes, DeAndre Hopkins remains a free-agent. But that could change after the Patriots gave DeVante Parker a new contract, clearing cap space for this year and keeps the Patriots as a potential landing spot for Hopkins. As for Dalvin Cook, the Patriots are also reportedly intrigued. Cook recently hinted to Pat McAfee that he had declined a visit with the Dolphins. 👀 

Us at FantasyPoints? We’re drafting Kyle Pitts where we can, building out an unbelievable tool - FantasyPoints Data (subscribers read on) - and will be enjoying the 4th of July celebrations.

Thanks for joining us this morning, let’s get after it.

— JR

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Weighted Opportunity for RBs

In this article, Scott Barrett explains why the location and types of touches given to RBs matters more for fantasy football than total touches alone.

Opportunities > Touches

Not all touches are created equal. A running back can touch the ball as a runner (rushing attempt) or as a receiver (reception). Rushing attempts are more common, but receptions are far more valuable; a reception is 3.2 times as valuable in PPR leagues.

But why is “touches” such a bad stat? Because it’s not closely correlated to fantasy scoring. Scott’s come up with something better: weighted opportunity score.

On average (over the past five seasons), a single rushing attempt has been worth about 0.62 fantasy points. A target has been worth roughly 1.57 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Weighted opportunity measures a running back’s opportunity, weighted appropriately for the worth of each unit of opportunity (a carry or a target).

For more insight into the methodology behind weighted opportunity, read the intro to the full article.

Player Analysis

Using the methodology outlined above, Scott shares a chart of 2022’s top 30 running backs by weighted opportunity per game, together with their fantasy points (PPR) per game and the difference between the two:

The obvious question: Should we avoid players with a negative differential (assuming this represents a measure of efficiency, and thus, skill) or should we be targeting these players (assuming this is a number that tends to regress to the mean)?

Typically, we should expect a heavy regression to the mean, for both positive and negative differentials. And the higher the differential, the greater the regression to the mean. Of the top 40 seasons this past decade (positive differential), 34 regressed the following season (85%). Likewise, of the bottom 40 seasons this past decade, 39 regressed (positively) in efficiency the following year.

A few points on that:

Negative Regression

Tony Pollard (+2.9), Nick Chubb (+2.8), Derrick Henry (+2.3), and Christian McCaffrey (+2.2) stand out as the top positive regression candidates. But these are fairly tame differentials historically, and these numbers are all fairly in line with their career norms.

Pollard is technically a top regression candidate – he’s almost certain to be less efficient in the touchdown department next season – but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad value at cost (ADP: RB7). Often enough, a hyper-efficient season will lead to more volume in the following year. And that certainly appears likely, with Ezekiel Elliott no longer with the Cowboys. If Pollard captures just 50% of Elliott’s now vacated XFP and if he’s only half as efficient as he was last season, we should expect him to score 20.0 FPG, which would have ranked 3rd-best last season.

Positive Regression

The following players all had seasons ranking bottom 40 by differential this decade: Jonathan Taylor (-3.2), Alvin Kamara (-2.5), Brian Robinson (-2.1), Dameon Pierce (-2.1), Michael Carter (-2.0), and Najee Harris (-1.6). We should be expecting a (positive) regression to the mean next season. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we should be expecting more fantasy production – only a positive increase by differential. And it’s entirely possible that many of these RBs will see a reduction in volume next season.

James Conner is severely underrated (ADP: RB28). He ranked 11th in WO/G last year (15.2) and is one of the most efficient RBs in fantasy over the last three seasons (+23%). Over the last two seasons, Conner averages 15.9 carries, 5.1 targets, and 21.4 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) when playing on at least 60% of the team’s snaps.

Read the full article to learn why Scott is struggling to get a good read on Najee Harris and why Jonathan Taylor is one of the most obvious positive regression candidates we’ve seen.

Franchise Focus

BENGALS

Attempting to solidify the still-inadequate o-line protection for Joe Burrow, the biggest acquisition the Bengals made on offense is tackle Orlando Brown. Last season, Burrow finished behind only Tom Brady in average time to throw at 2.36 seconds (per Fantasy Points Data), which led his aDOT to shrink from 2021 (8.4>7.4) while he took 10 fewer sacks (51>41).

Burrow still finished as the QB4 with 22.9 FPG in 16 games. He had six weekly finishes as a top-five fantasy QB and 11 weekly finishes as a top-12 option. With the loaded offensive cast returning and an improved o-line, a season similar to 2022 can be expected.

Full article covers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon & the rest of the Bengals offense.

STEELERS

Najee Harris saw a significant volume decline from his rookie year, falling from 19.6 XFP/game (2nd among RBs) to 14.4 (15th). Harris also saw his targets fall from 94 to 53, and his route share from 57.1% (4th) to 38.7% (22nd). Not great.

While he breaks tackles, Harris has never been explosive, ranking dead-last in percentage of plays going for 15+ yards (2.2%) among 38 qualifying RBs – behind names like Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, and Brian Robinson. This requires Harris to have opportunity similar to his rookie season to push him back into the RB1 tier, which is unlikely given Jaylen Warren’s emergence.

The full article covers Kenny Pickett in year two, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and new WR Allen Robinson.

BROWNS

Despite his infamous game-to-game inconsistency, Amari Cooper has been remarkably consistent in his season-long results – finishing no worse than WR33 (by FPG) and no better than WR15 in all eight of his seasons. Cooper’s 2022 provides optimism, as he logged his best PFF receiving grade (83.6) and YPRR (2.06) since 2018 and the most targets (132) of his career.

2023 could be Cooper’s breakout season, if Watson can return to his old form, given Watson’s WR1 has averaged 18.6 FPG (WR7 last year) over his last three full seasons as a starting QB.

Read the full article on the Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns offense, including FantasyPoints favorite Elijah Moore.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

To run or not to run?

Dr. Edwin Porras offers a deep look at years of NFL injury data to determine if mobile and smaller quarterbacks are more at risk of being hurt than pocket passers.

In this article, Dr. Porras explains why rushing as a quarterback does not produce higher injury rates compared to less mobile quarterbacks. The narrative of pocket passers being less injury-prone lacks evidence, and the trend is shifting towards recognizing the value of ultra-athletic quarterbacks in both the NFL and fantasy football alike.

The data suggests that taking a hit in the pocket and/or being sacked is more tightly linked to injury than any combination of a scramble and/or designed run. Rushing ability alone should not be the sole determining factor when evaluating a quarterback's durability.

Lamar Jackson truthers, you’re welcome.

Oddsmakers Rejoice

The latest odds for Super Bowl LVIII, which will be played in Las Vegas at the end of the 2023 NFL season.

The latest odds and wagering advice for the Most Valuable Player Award in the upcoming 2023 NFL season.

The latest odds and betting advice for the most and least likely teams to reach the 2023-24 NFL postseason, which includes:

The New Orleans Saints staggering -180 odds to make the playoffs despite being a middle-of-the-pack NFL team. They luckily play in the league’s second-worst division with a schedule that’s projected to be the NFL’s easiest based on 2023 season win totals.

The Falcons and Panthers have failed to reach the postseason in five consecutive seasons. Both are expected to miss the postseason for a sixth consecutive season. The markets aren’t expecting the Buccaneers to extend the NFL’s third-longest playoff streak to a fourth season with the second-longest odds to reach the postseason in the NFC.

🎤 Colts Team Preview - Few teams in the NFL underwent as significant an overhaul as the Colts. Beat writer and radio host Kevin Bowen from @1075TheFan joins Joe Dolan to break down the Colts from a fantasy football perspective. (podcast)

🎤 Texans Team Preview - The host of The Wheelhouse on @ESPN975 joins Joe Dolan to explain why the vibes are different for the 2023 Houston Texans. He explains what's really going on with the CJ Stroud/Davis Mills "competition," and previews the Texans from a fantasy football perspective (podcast)

🎤 Zach Moss joins FantasyPoints - Colts RB Zack Moss joins Joe and Trey to discuss Zach’s outlook for 2023, the state of the running back position while in a contract year, and what it's like to be traded in the middle of the NFL season (podcast)

Tweets

If you haven’t yet checked Discord, and you’re a FantasyPoints subscriber, you’ll want to do so immediately:

As for all the non-subscribers, Ricky Bobby would like a word.

Dynasty Corner

Startup Draft Plan

Nick Spanola wrote a comprehensive dynasty startup draft plan and strategy guide, looking at FFPC ADP and highlighting the best values within each round for FFPC’s Tri-Flex format.

Scott Barrett’s “Tank Then Bank” strategy is the optimal approach. Essentially, we are more or less intentionally punting Year 1 of the league. If we were to finish last in Year 1, likely due to our conscious fade of the RB position, it would be ideal since it would put us in line for the 1.01 in next year’s draft.

As for the startup draft, Nick outlines the optimal strategy in each round, including:

Round 6: Jameson Williams. Williams barely played as a rookie (ACL), so most of the justification relates to Williams’ high-end prospect profile – Scott Barrett’s rookie model even had him ranked as the overall WR2 in the 2022 class (here).

Williams’ big play ability from the outside has been impressive. He caught 72 passes after removing screens while in college, per PFF, and his 8.2 YAC/Reception on these plays ranks third among Power-Five receivers since 2014, on a list including CeeDee Lamb (8.5), Hollywood Brown (8.2), and Jaylen Waddle (8.1).

He just turned 22 in March, and his rare play-making abilities on the perimeter complement teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown nicely in a lavish Detroit Lions offense.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. We’re so close to peak draft season. So close to sneaking a late-round Elijah Moore pick.

See you next weekend and have a happy 4th of July!

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.