1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. Trends & Trades 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

Chase Brown vs CMC?

The Jonathan Brooks debut. Before the Panther’s bye, Hubbard amassed 28.9 XFP in Week 10, the most by any RB in a single game this season, and only Kyren Williams has a higher snap share than Hubbard over his past four games. Oh yeah, and he got a mid-season extension. We all drafted Brooks as a potential league winner, but we can’t expect him to get more than ~30% of the snap share moving forward. At worst, he’s a premier handcuff ROS.

Josh Downs emerging. Downs now averages 20.8 FPG over his last two games with Richardson, thanks in part to downfield targets. Downs’ volume with Richardson (11.6 XFP/G) won’t get close to what it was with Flacco (16.9 XFP/G) but we at least now know Downs can make big plays with either guy. Arrow trending up.

Is Chase Brown RB1? Since Moss went down, Brown has received every single backfield touch, played on 84.7% of the snaps, ran a route on 61.5% of dropbacks, commanded a 15.2% target share and averaged an absurd 27.2 XFP/G. This is +35.3% higher than the next-closest RB (Kamara).

He’s even underperforming his volume. If he were scoring to expectation, he’d be replicating the per-game fantasy output of prime LaDainian Tomlinson or Le’Veon Bell. This looks stable too -we’re past the trade deadline, Khalil Herbert is the only competition he has and no other RB on the roster received a single touch all season. Brown is a top-3 RB rest of the season, even if the Bengals are officially eliminated from the playoffs early.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 12 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇

• Fighting the Bye Week - Week 12 Preview. Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast

• Hot Coaching Names To Watch & Former NFL Scoutt Talk. Listen: NFL First Read

• Scott Barrett & Theo talk Chase Brown, team-changing trades & Hidden League Winner Secrets. Watch: School of Scott - Week 12

• 6 Players To Aggressively Trade For & more. Listen: Dynasty Points

• Sharp Week 12 Wagers. Listen: NFL Best Bets

Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!

Starts/Sits

Week 12 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 11.

Start Josh Downs. Richardson looks better after his time on the bench, so the future looks bright for Downs. DET is a great matchup - they give up a league-high 111.6 receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Sit Rico Dowdle. After saying Dowdle was going to be the starter, Dallas reverted to a split backfield last week with Dowdle (47% of snaps) leading the way over Zeke (32%) and Vaughn (19%). Dowdle led the team in carries, but Zeke ran more routes. Gross.

Start Dallas Goedert. With Devonta Smith out, this is a smash spot for Goedert. Whenever the Eagles are missing a WR, they condense their offense further. Goedert averages 14.8 fantasy points per game with Brown out over the last two seasons.

Sit Xavier Worthy. True boom or bust FLEX option. Worthy leads the WR group in routes, but Kelce (30%) and Hopkins (18%) earn the lion’s share of first-read targets. Worthy’s 11.3% first-read target share over the last three weeks won’t cut it.

Stash Blake Corum. He’s among the most valuable bench stashes over the final six weeks. If he’s available, snag the lottery ticket.

Read the full Week 12 Start/Sit article or watch the YT version below!

Arizona Cardinals (4%) vs SEA. Coming off their bye, the first-place Cardinals deserve your attention. They’re coming off of back-to-back 12-point weeks and their next four opponents all rank in the top ten of FP allowed to DSTs. In the fantasy semifinals, the Cards get Carolina. Lock ‘em in, per Drake’s Week 12 Streaming D/STs. 

Can you start Rome Odunze? After seeing his highest target share of the season last week under new OC Thomas Brown (32.3%), Odunze gets the Vikings this week, who have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG to the outside (119.2).

The Vikings also blitz at the league’s 2nd-highest rate, where Odunze has been Williams’ go-to receiver in this scenario - leading the team with a 23.1% target share and a +38.6% boost to his YPRR and +73.6% boost to his FP/RR. If Williams stays on his feet, Oduzne will eat in this one, per Heath’s Week 12 Advanced Matchups.

Mike Evans returns. Evans scored 6 TDs in his first seven games, with 5 scores coming on a team-best 11 end-zone targets. His first-read share (22.6%) and target share (17.9%) from early in the season should rise without Godwin on the field. He’ll primarily see coverage from Deonte Banks, who allows a generous .42 FP/RR - and the Giants give up the 16th fewest receiving YPG (96.1) and the third-most YPRR (2.35) to receivers aligned out wide, per Brolley’s Week 12 Game Hub.

Trades & Bets

Buy Bucky Irving. The remaining schedule for the Bucs has a lot of weak teams on it, so the Guru thinks that gives an edge to Irving over Rachaad White, who operates mostly as their receiving and hurry-up back. He could be a sneaky producer down the stretch, per Hanesn’s Week 12 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell DJ Moore. They found ways to get Moore the ball under the new OC and play-caller, but that might be temporary. More struggles are ahead for CHI with a tough slate of games. Move him if someone thinks he could pop ROS, per Hanesn’s Week 12 Players To Trade/Trade For.

💸 Best Bets

• Brian Robinson over 68.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365). DAL gives up 4.6 YPC and the 7th most rushing YPG (111.1). Mixon ripped them for 20/109/3 and WAS enter as the 10.5 home favorites, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 12.

• Puka Nacua over 5.5 receptions (-156, FD). Puka has 7+ catches in all three of his healthy games this season and while it’s a tough matchup against a rising Eagles secondary, the Rams know how to put the ball in Puka’s hands, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 12.

• Nico Collins 100+ Receiving Yards (+205, FD). Nico is back. Among receivers with over 100 routes ran, Nico has the 10th highest ASS, is first in YPRR (3.57) and is first in receiving yards per game (103.5). TEN defends the run well, so expect more routes for Nico, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 12.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 12.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Wondering why the FP team is excited about Josh Downs & Rome Odunze? Read: The Market Report Week 12.

• Can Taysom Hill keep this up? Is Aaron Jones washed? Read: Five Stats To Know: Week 11.

• Want to know who has the best and worst offensive lines? Read: 2024 O-Line Tiers Week 12.

• Looking for injury info on Mike Evans, George Kittle & more? Read: Week 12 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Trade Targets.

• Not sure who to take in Week 12? Read: 2024 Week 12 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 12 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.