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Anatomy of a League Winner

In a new version of his award-winning study, Scott Barrett scours data to identify the profile of 2023 fantasy football league winners.

In 2021, Scott Barrett published “Upside Wins Championships” and the world hasn’t been the same since. This article introduced a draft strategy describing why UPSIDE IS EVERYTHING. Leagues are won and lost by teams who correctly identified key league-winners and rode those players to a Championship.

In other words, our goal when drafting should be to identify players with league-winning upside. Lucky for us, Scott shares his thoughts on 2023 league winners in his recently published “Anatomy of a League Winner: 2023 Edition”.

QUARTERBACKS

Having studied league winners for the past six seasons, Scott found three key takeaways:

1. You don’t need to draft a quarterback high. In fact, it’s probably a mistake to do so.

2. Even if you do hit on a late-round gem, it’s still not really much of an advantage. Typically, the top quarterback in any given season is only slightly more valuable than the top defense.

3. The issue with #1 and #2 is that 2022 ran entirely counter to this narrative. Jalen Hurts (drafted in Round 7), Patrick Mahomes (Round 4), and Josh Allen (Round 3) all posted historically great win rates. This raises an important question – was this an outlier year or a sign of things to come?

Highest-end QBs were more valuable in 2022 than they were in any other season over the prior decade: Rostering a top-3 fantasy QB was a massive advantage in 2022, worth (on average) an extra 7.0 FPG when facing a team with a bottom-3 starter.

Still, Scott is hesitant to abandon his preferred Late Round QB approach because it’s looked optimal in 10 of the last 11 seasons. And, of course, because it’s always been easy to find league-winning QBs in the later rounds of your draft.

Who’s he considering this year? Keep an eye out for his My Guys article. Hints below:

Last year Justin Fields (QB6) ranked behind only Jalen Hurts from Week 8 on (25.7 FPG). It’s scary to think what he might be capable of if he makes a similar Year 3 leap to Josh Allen and Hurts. Like with Buffalo (Stefon Diggs) and Philadelphia (A.J. Brown) in those seasons, Chicago’s decision to trade for an alpha WR1 in D.J. Moore should only increase Fields’ already astronomically-high ceiling.

Year 5 QB Daniel Jones (ADP: QB14) stands out as a player with underappreciated rushing upside and underrated league-winning potential. Under Josh Allen’s former OC Brian Daboll last year, Jones finished 10th in FPG (18.4), and only 0.5 FPG off of the QB7.

Jones ranked 5th in rushing YPG and 2nd in scrambles per game (behind only Justin Fields). After adding to the Giants’ receiving arsenal (while also getting several players back and fully healthy), this is easily the best supporting cast of Jones’ career.

Read the full article to see Scott’s thoughts on Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson.

RUNNING BACKS

Like it or not, the RB position is THE most-important position in fantasy.

More so than any other position, RBs make up a huge majority of any season’s league-winners. Over the past six seasons, 17 RBs earned their owners a Win% over 60.0%. Over the same span, only six WRs, three TEs, two QBs, two D/ST, and one K reached that threshold.

And typically, you’ll have to pay up to acquire top RBs. The data suggests grabbing at least two RBs in the first four rounds is the optimal approach. Outside of the UDFAs, 80% of league-winning RBs were drafted in the first four rounds.

At an absolute bare minimum, you need to draft at least one RB in the first three rounds. And, ideally, you’re taking two RBs in the first three rounds.

Why is this so? Because of scarcity. But also because running backs are typically your highest-end producers. Over the past six seasons, 12 of the top-15 highest-scoring flex-eligible players (by FPG) were running backs.

While Jefferson and Chase are probably safer picks than Ekeler or McCaffrey, you’ll have a greater chance of winning your league if you draft Ekeler or McCaffrey.

As for who to draft at RB this season, you’ll want to read the full article. Snippet:

Last month James Cook (RB30) told us he’s “obviously the RB1” for the Bills this year, and GM Brandon Beane told us at the Combine, “Whether it is passing it to [Cook] or handing it to him, we definitely feel he can handle a higher workload."

HC Sean McVay can’t stop raving about Cam Akers (RB22), and has also been quoted as saying, “[Akers] is going to be a huge part of what we’re doing moving forward. [He’s] going to be a central figure in this offense.”

Read the full article for league-winning RBs and WRs in 2023, including why Kadarius Toney may be Scott’s Exodia in 2023.

Franchise Focus

AFC North

This AFC North review is part of our Franchise Focus series, breaking down each NFL team from a fantasy perspective.

CHIEFS

Travis Kelce has been the clear class of the tight end position since 2016. He’s finished first in total FP and FPG in five of the last seven seasons, second to only Rob Gronkowski in 2017 and Mark Andrews in 2021. Kelce’s posted 83+ receptions and 1000+ receiving yards in each of those seven seasons, which is more impressive when you consider that Gronk, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten have the second most 1000-yard seasons by a tight end with four.

The only thing that can seemingly slow Kelce down at this point is time — he’ll turn 34 in October. But Kelce hasn’t shown any signs of slowing, especially when you consider he’s played better in the postseason the last three years.

The full article dives deep on Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs backfield, as well as Kadarius Toney and the Chiefs WR options.

CHARGERS

Justin Herbert took a step back as a fantasy scorer in his third season, averaging just 17 FPG (QB15) after 23.3 FPG in 2021 (QB2) and 22.9 FPG in his 2020 rookie campaign (QB7). The 2022 backslide occurred despite Herbert hitting a career-high 699 pass attempts, 2nd-most in the NFL. But with additional volume came decreased efficiency – Herbert hit a career low in yards per attempt (26th), with his TD rate also falling from 5.7% to 3.6%.

So what happened here?

1. For starters, Herbert played much of the season through an excruciatingly painful rib injury. He also had surgery on his non-throwing shoulder after the season.

2. Herbert was never a frequent downfield passer, but he took it to another level last season with his 6.2 aDOT ranking 3rd-lowest, and his 8.9% deep throw rate 5th-lowest. And there was probably a reason for that – Herbert ranked just 31st among qualified passers in deep ball accuracy.

3. His inefficiency (or bad luck) in the red zone also sticks out like a sore rib; Herbert’s 109 red zone pass+rush attempts ranked 6th-most in the league, but his 18.3% red zone TD rate ranks 27th.

Help may be on the way. New OC Kellen Moore arrives from Dallas, fresh off a season in which he helped Dak Prescott to a 29.7% red zone TD rate that ranked 2nd in the league. Round 1 draft pick Quentin Johnston also gives Herbert another option downfield aside from Mike Williams. A combination of health, offensive creativity, and positive TD regression could catapult Herbert back into the top tier of fantasy QBs.

Read the full article to help you decide which of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston you’ll want in your league.

RAIDERS

Josh Jacobs has been one of the NFL’s premier grinders since he was drafted, but was consistently on the cusp of solidifying his RB1 status. He made that jump in 2022, finishing as the RB3 (19.3 FPG), which can be attributed to some of the league’s best volume.

But it wasn’t just the volume. Jacobs was also among the league’s most efficient players with the ball in his hands. Among RBs with at least 100 attempts, he ranked 1st in PFF rushing grade (91.9), 1st in missed tackles forced (90), 8th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4), and 11th in YPRR (1.17).

The current Raiders’ regime clearly trusts him with a bell cow workload, so we can expect more of the same in 2023. Jacobs just needs to sign his franchise tag…

Read the full article to learn why things might be looking up for the Raiders after they signed Jimmy Garopollo.

BRONCOS

Even the most lethal route runners need a catchable ball if they’re open. From Weeks 1-10 last year, Jerry Jeudy saw the third-lowest rate of catchable targets among qualified receivers (70.4%), ahead of only Kyle Pitts and Marvin Jones. That increased to 90.9% over the rest of the season. So it should be no surprise that Jeudy was just the WR45 in FPG (8.7, half PPR) from Weeks 1-10 and the WR8 (15.5 FPG) from Weeks 13-18. (Jeudy missed Weeks 11 and 12 with an ankle injury.)

So, if Jeudy gets anything but woeful QB play, he should be golden for fantasy.

Full report on Russell Wilson and the Broncos 2023 offense, including Javonte Williams.

Tweets

If Russell Wilson doesn’t improve under Sean Payton, it’s over.

That’s some impressive company Chris Olave finds himself leading.

Dalvin Cook is no longer in Minnesota. Alexander MattiSZN.

Dynasty Corner

Don’t Forget Pitts

In this article, Graham Barfield breaks down and reviews a 2023 high-stakes dynasty fantasy football superflex and tight end premium startup draft at FFPC.

In the second round, Graham took the first tight end off of the board in Kyle Pitts.

Pitts was going in the first round of TE premium dynasty startups last year and slid all of the way out of the top 20 players in this draft. The cheaper price is deserved, but not this cheap.

Pitts is by far and away the dynasty TE1 and is one of our favorite players to draft this year with Fantasy Groupthink out on him. After the WRs dried up a bit, Graham was happy to pivot to Pitts.

Graham’s favorite pick? Raiders rookie TE Michael Mayer, his dynasty TE9, at TE13. It seems like everyone is scared of the Raiders with Jimmy Garoppolo foot injury lingering, but this was such a tremendous value.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. We’ve got an exclusive subscriber code: 23FPOINTS10 for an extra discount off that FantasyPoints subscription you know you deserve.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.