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Must-read Fantasy Points content today:
Killer Stats to Know 📊
Consistency Review: Usage 🧐
TE Stats: What Matters ✍️
Injury Tracker 🚑
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Top-50 Fantasy Football Rankings: Killer Stats to Know
Kyle Menton offers up three key statistics for each of the top 50 players in 2026 fantasy football redraft leagues to explain if they are targets or fades.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
If we remove the game St. Brown left after the first drive in Week 13, he averaged 10.4 Targets/G (WR2), 0.135 1D/RR (WR3), and 20.3 FPG (WR3) last season
St. Brown also picked up a hand/wrist injury around Week 4, which led to a league-high 13 drops in 2025. Those drops left 32.0 fantasy points on the board (without accounting for YAC)
St. Brown has missed only one game over the last three seasons, while ranking top-10 in TPRR, top-8 in YPRR, top-4 in 1D/RR, and top-4 in FPG in each of those three seasons
Draft Outlook: WR3 finish in three straight seasons, with WR1 overall upside. Menton will sign up for that any day in the middle of Round 1.
Bengals RB Chase Brown
Despite slow starts in both 2024 and 2025, Brown has earned the 5th-most XFP/G among all RBs over the past two seasons (17.4)
During his 6-game stretch with a healthy Joe Burrow at the end of the 2025 season, Brown averaged 22.3 FPG (RB2), and his 11.8 receiving FPG during that span would only rank behind Christian McCaffrey’s 13.9
Brown earned the 5th-most targets among all RBs last season, with only 13.8% of those coming on designed plays, by far the lowest rate among the top-10 RB target earners
Draft Outlook: The realistic path Brown has to a career-high receiving role in 2026 makes him one of the most enticing RB selections in the first two rounds.
Bears RB D’Andre Swift
Here is how Swift ranked among all RBs in 2025: 4.87 YPC (RB10), 5.4% explosive run rate (RB13), 54.7% success rate (RB11), and 0.17 MTF/Att (RB15)
On rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, here is how Swift ranked in 2025: 2.07 YPC (RB1), 64.3% success rate (RB6), 35.7% stuff rate (RB1), and 0.14 MTF/Att (RB7)
If we exclude the one game that Swift saw fewer than a 50% snap share (return from injury in Week 12), he averaged 15.2 FPG in 2025 (RB13)
Draft Outlook: With the injury to Kyle Monangai, there is no doubt that Swift is one of the most undervalued RBs in the league right now
Read the full article HERE for more eye-opening stats about the rest of the top-50.
Fantasy Football Consistency Review: Usage
Jake Tribbey looks at every skill position player from the 2025 NFL fantasy football season to find which players had the most and least-consistent roles.
Least Consistent:
Cardinals WRs Michael Wilson & Marvin Harrison Jr.
Wilson averaged 27.2 FPG, 26.1 XFP/G, 14.8 targets per game, and 124.8 receiving YPG in his four games without Harrison. It’s almost impossible to fathom this sort of production from a player who averaged 8.3 FPG in the first two seasons of his career. Over a full season, 27.2 FPG would be the most all-time by a WR. 26.1 XFP/G would be the highest mark by any player in FantasyPoints Data history. 14.8 targets per game would easily be the most in NFL history (if Wilson maintained 14.8 targets per game over a full season, he would beat the NFL target record by 42 targets). And 124.8 receiving YPG would rank behind only 1982 Wes Chandler as the 2nd-most all-time.
However, in their 429 snaps together, Harrison beat Wilson in every efficiency stat that matters (TPRR, YPRR, 1D/RR), while truly dominating target share (25.7% to 15.8%). In terms of FP/RR, Harrison was +52% better than Wilson. And if we look at XFP/RR, Harrison was +71% better. Because of this, Tribbey prefers Marv at his reasonable ADP (85.6 overall on ESPN).
Most Consistent:
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams
If we exclude the final two games of the season (when Williams' snaps were limited due to a neck injury), he averaged a 73% snap share, 49% route share, 16.2 XFP/G, and 16.2 FPG. Those numbers ranked 7th-best, 10th-best, 6th-best, and 9th-best. The Cowboys have a top-12 offensive line and are implied for the 6th-most PPG (25.7). Williams will be playing in one of the league’s best offenses in a borderline uncontested role, with a complete monopoly on goal line work (Williams led the NFL in XFP/G from inside the five). Despite a somewhat limited ceiling, he’s a great value at the end of Round 3.
Rams WR Davante Adams
Adams was one of four players (joining Christian McCaffrey, Rashee Rice, and Trey McBride) to earn double-digit XFP in 100% of his games. If we ignore Adams' final two games of the regular season (when he played on 44% of snaps due to a hamstring injury), he averaged 17.2 XFP/G (tied with Puka Nacua for WR4 over the full season). Adams is the WR18 on ESPN, but the WR24 in DraftKings best ball. Tribbey can’t really be sold on the idea of taking Adams ahead of Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey, or Tee Higgins on ESPN, but he’s happy to draft him at his best ball ADP.
Read the full article HERE for more of Tribbey’s consistency review on usage, as well as his review on production, which you can read HERE.
TE Stats: What Matters
Ryan Heath runs an analysis of every statistic in the Fantasy Points Data Suite to discover what metrics most effectively predict fantasy success for TEs.
Heath tested almost every stat in the Fantasy Points Data Suite (along with a handful we haven’t even added yet!) to see how well it predicts next year’s fantasy points per game (FPG). Results for the TE position are shown in the graphic below, sorted in decreasing order by correlation coefficient:
While there are tons of individual stats he tested in that graphic, we can broadly group them into a few categories. Going in order of how predictive they are:
1A. Prior Production and Fantasy Scoring — Just like with QBs, RBs, and WRs, the best way to predict future TE production is past TE production. Don’t forget about previous-season FPG and receiving yards.
1B. Production and Volume Relative To Offense — As he discussed in Anatomy of a League Winner, TEs must not be stuck behind multiple other pass-catchers in a crowded offense. So it makes sense that a TE’s market share of their team’s receiving yards (Receiving YMS) ranks 2nd-best, and first-read target share ranks 7th-best (vs. 10th-best for WRs).
*Tier Break*
2. Route Volume — For WRs, stats like receiving TDs and air yards rank ahead of route share. But at TE, route share is more predictive.
This is because there’s much more variation (among players on the fringes of fantasy-relevancy) in how many snaps and routes TEs play compared to at WR.
The overall fantasy TE1 has led the position in routes run over each of the past five seasons. And the route leader has ranked top-3 in fantasy scoring in every season since 2016. (Shoutout to Rich Hribar and Jacob Gibbs for these excellent pulls.)
Read the full article HERE for further explanation and some leaders in these categories from last season.
Fantasy Football Injury Tracker
Dr. Jeff Mueller analyzes all the currently known 2026 NFL skill-position player injuries, with projected return-to-play timelines for fantasy football leagues.
Quarterbacks
Mueller is drafting Daniel Jones (Achilles) at cost despite early-season rushing production dip expectation. Passing upside should balance out his regression in rushing fantasy points early on.
Running Backs
Mueller believes Ashton Jeanty’s ankle injury is a Grade 2 low ankle sprain that will give him a chance to be active Week 1 depending on pain levels and stability. It could require closer to 6 weeks, which would place a RTP closer to Week 3-4. He’s drafting Jeanty at any ADP discount due to the overreaction on fading and concern.
Wide Receivers
Mueller has a high concern on Mike Evans dealing with two soft tissue injuries (quad & groin), with one being recurrent, with three weeks remaining before Week 1. Evans’ age and very extensive soft tissue injury history are leading Mueller to fade the WR at ADP.
Tight Ends
“Tucker Kraft (knee) in Round 5 or 6 of drafts will feed families. Not concerned about him telling the media that the Packers will manage his snaps through the first half of the season. In his very first two padded practices after he was fully cleared, he had 10 receptions and multiple touchdowns in limited work. High utilization when on the field. Do not overthink it.”
Read the full article HERE for more injury updates, and stay up to date with everything going on around the league with Tom Brolley’s News Tracker and Chris Wecht’s Season-Long Projections Change Log.
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