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Must-read Fantasy Points content today:

  • “Mr. Relevant” Late-Round Sleepers 😴

  • Graham Barfield's Tiers 150 ✍️

  • RB Stats: What Matters 📊

  • Superflex/2-QB Draft Guide 🧐

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2026 "Mr. Relevant" Late-Round Sleepers

A deep look into our favorite 2026 fantasy football sleepers to select at the end of fantasy drafts.

Colts QB Daniel Jones (ADP QB27, PROJ QB29)

  • Jones leveled up in his first season under Shane Steichen, showing more confidence and better timing on his way to posting career-highs in completion percentage (68%), YPA (8.1), passing YPG (238.5), and QB rating (100.2). Jones reached 19.1+ FP in six of his first nine starts on his way to averaging 19.6 FPG in his 12 full games, which was good for the QB7. He’s been a full-go thus far in training camp, and even if he takes a step back this year, he’s priced as a QB3 despite a pair of top-12 finishes in the last four seasons.

Eagles RB Tank Bigsby (ADP RB62, PROJ RB70)

  • Bigsby handled just 58 carries with the Eagles, turning them into 344 yards and 2 TDs. He led all backs with 50+ carries in YPC (5.93), explosive run rate (26%), and YACO/ATT (3.36). There’s been some chatter from beat reporters that Bigsby could see an uptick in work behind Barkley this season, especially with his one-cut style in Sean Mannion’s new offense, which will include more outside zone concepts. And if Saquon Barkley were to miss time, Bigsby could handle 15+ carries behind Scott DiBenedetto’s fifth-ranked offensive line.

Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed (ADP WR60, PROJ WR65)

  • Shaheed never earned a massive role in Seattle’s passing attack, playing next to ball-hog Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but they still handed him $34.7 million guaranteed, which is an indication they have bigger plans for him moving forward. He averaged 4.9 receptions/game and 55.4 receiving YPG in nine games with the Saints, which dipped to 1.6 receptions/game and 15.7 receiving YPG in 12 contests with the Seahawks (postseason included). He also previously averaged 11.6 FPG and 2.03 YPRR in 18 games alongside Chris Olave in 2023-24.

Rams TE Terrance Ferguson (ADP TE25, PROJ TE43)

  • He saw just 25 targets, but the 2025 46th overall pick ranked behind just speedsters Tyquan Thornton and Alec Pierce with a 21.00 YPR average, and he easily led the league with a 70% explosive catch rate. Sean McVay should look to give Ferguson more opportunities after demonstrating his ability as a vertical threat. He never topped a 36% route share until Week 14, but McVay promoted him to a 52% route share for his final six games (postseason included).

Read the full article HERE for more sleepers to snag with one of your last picks, including preseason superstar De’Zhaun Stribling.

Graham Barfield’s 2026 Tiers 150

Barfield organizes 150 players for the 2026 fantasy football season into positional tiers, grouping similarly ranked players.

Targets

  • Jalen Hurts (QB5): The QB7 (last year), QB5, QB2, and QB2 (2022) in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. Hurts has scored 2 more rushing TD (50 total) than Josh Allen (48) in this span. The loss of A.J. Brown is more than baked into this price (59.2 overall consensus ADP). The Eagles have some major bounceback appeal with Lane Johnson returning for one more year.

  • Omarion Hampton (RB12): It was only in nine contests played, but Hampton (15.1 FPG) out-scored Ashton Jeanty (14.5) on a per-game basis last season. Hampton played on 78% of the Chargers snaps (RB7) in his first four games prior to injuring his ankle in Week 5. New OC Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins backfields have finished seventh, seventh, and first in team RB PPR points scored across the last three seasons.

  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR30): He ended up playing in only 9 full games and was pretty good (13.4 PPR FPG – WR19) when healthy. Harrison earned 21% of the targets and 42% of the air yards in these contests, which would have given him a borderline WR1 role. Only seven wideouts had at least 20% of team targets and 40% of air yards last season: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, and D.K. Metcalf.

  • Dallas Goedert (TE11): He’s finished top-12 by PPR FPG in four-straight seasons, two of which were top-8 campaigns. Goedert has earned 28% more targets per game and averaged 34% more expected FP per game without A.J. Brown over the last two seasons.

Avoids

  • Matthew Stafford (QB16): he’s nearly fairly priced for TD regression. The more mobile QBs such as Malik Willis, Patrick Mahomes, and Bo Nix offer more upside within this ADP range.

  • Travis Etienne Jr. (RB21): He’s largely been a low-end RB2 with the Jaguars, ranking RB22 by FPG over the last three years. The Saints didn’t have a particularly valuable backfield (28th in XFP) in HC Kellen Moore’s first season. This is an offensive downgrade for Etienne from Jacksonville (15th in implied PPG) to New Orleans (23rd).

  • Carnell Tate (WR34): We’ve got Tate (106 targets) and Wan’Dale Robinson’s projected volume (100) closer than most do in the industry. Cam Ward ranked 31st-of-32 QBs in ANY/A last year. Only Geno Smith was worse.

  • Dalton Kincaid (TE14): He simply needs to play a larger role in the offense to become a difference-maker in fantasy. He ranks TE37 (2025), TE27 (‘24), and TE14 (‘23) in route share over his career.

Read the full article HERE for more targets and avoids at each position, as well as Barfield’s full Top-150 vs. Consensus ADP.

RB Stats: What Matters

Ryan Heath runs an analysis of every statistic in the Fantasy Points Data Suite to discover what metrics most effectively predict fantasy success for RBs.

Heath tested almost every stat in the Fantasy Points Data Suite (along with a handful we haven’t even added yet!) to see how well it predicts next year’s fantasy points per game (FPG). Results for the RB position are shown in the graphic below, sorted in decreasing order by correlation coefficient

While there are tons of individual stats he tested in that graphic, we can broadly group them into a few categories. Going in order of how predictive they are:

1. Prior Volume and Fantasy Production — FPG, Expected Fantasy Points per Game (XFP/G), and their variants/components (total fantasy points/rushing yards/receiving yards, Team XFP Share).

2. Receiving Role > Rushing Role — Target share beats out designed carry share in predictiveness. Receiving Yardage Market Share (Receiving YMS) ranks above total rush attempts, and seems especially underrated to Heath given how infrequently it’s discussed compared to other similarly predictive stats.

*Tier Break*

3. FPOE (Fantasy Points Over Expectation) — Efficiency metrics are universally much less predictive than volume metrics for RBs. But this is the most predictive and all-encompassing efficiency metric for fantasy purposes.

Read the full article HERE for further explanation and some leaders in these categories from last season.

Superflex/2-QB Draft Guide

Graham Barfield breaks down strategies, ideal roster builds, and players to target in 2026 Superflex or 2QB fantasy football leagues of all sizes.

Barfield’s guide is a must-read prior to your Superflex/2-QB draft. But for the sake of this newsletter, here’s the TL;DR…

  • Lamar Jackson (11 ADP) is an incredible injury discount.

  • Round 2 is a pocket to draft running backs aggressively.

  • Look to draft your QB1 in Round 3 after RB-RB starts.

  • Wait on WR, especially in leagues where you need to only start two.

  • There are some nice values in the Round 3-4 pocket – Dak Prescott (44.1 ADP) and Brock Purdy (36.2 ADP) in particular.

  • Three WRs stand out as great values in Round 4-5: DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, and Emeka Egbuka.

  • Draft Malik Willis (90 ADP) in every league.

  • Round 5-6 is particularly strong for QB values. Target Jared Goff (65 ADP) and Baker Mayfield (60 ADP).

  • Clear eyes, full heart, Bhayshul Tuten. (Draft him in Round 6.)

  • David Montgomery is a must-draft player at his ADP (82.7).

  • Tyler Shough has the most upside of the QBs selected in Rounds 7-8. He’s a great QB3 target.

  • He’s leaving the light on for C.J. Stroud as a QB3 target.

  • Three of the top receiver values are drafted in Rounds 9-10 – Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

  • Bryce Young is the most overpriced QB in the SuperFlex market (87 ADP).

  • Target Jacoby Brissett and Geno Smith after Round 10 as QB3-4 bench stashes.

Read the full article HERE for more details and round-by-round strategy.

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