Must Draft Players

Inside The Ultimate Draft Plan

Author

Sean Byrne
August 25, 2024

In this week for The Roundup, we assembled the Avengers. Scott Barrett joins the Fantasy Points Podast, Ryan Heath talks his must draft players and we have an immense amount of valuable articles and podcasts to help you win your draft.

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The Ultimate Draft Plan

Scott Barrett x Fantasy Points Podcast

Jordan Love // David Dermer, AP Photo

Scott Barrett joins Fantasy Points Podcast hosts John ‘The Guru’ Hansen and Brian Drake to discuss the ultimate draft plan for fantasy football 2024.

Scott joining the Guru and Brian on the podcast is like the Avengers assembling. When they talk, we listen.

On De’Von Achane. The Guru loves young ascending talent. Scott is all about players with massive upside. So, drafting Achane should be an easy choice, right?

Scott is known in the industry as the upside guy, the bell-cow guy, the inventor of weighted opportunity and has Achane as RB8 - but there are still some questions. Due to his game-breaking speed, Achane might only need 15 touches a game to be the overall RB1. It’s unorthodox so it’s hard to trust before we see it… but all of the numbers and vibes point us to Achane breaking leagues.

The Guru prefers more traditional production here with volume. We all love Achane…but how risk-averse are you?

On Elite TE Strategy. Historically, tight ends are a position without a middle class. Two oligarchs (Kelce, Andrews, Waller, etc.) often ruled over peasants, with the elite players. In today’s landscape, we have an upper class in tight ends. Scott believes you should be safe taking almost any tight - seriously. He’s on record being ‘whatever’ about the position.

The Guru is a little different, he has an excellent hit rate on tight ends - and he agrees the depth is great - but he wants studs at discount pricing. The Guru is in on Kyle Pitts now that the coach and quarterback have changed, as well as Evan Engram and Jake Ferguson. But a top sleeper here? Tyler Conklin.

On Jordan Love. The Guru loves Jordan Love. He wins from the pocket, distributes the ball like a point guard but runs when he needs to. He loves the team continuity with coaches and personnel, loves the receiving core and feels he has a prime fantasy schedule.

Jordan Love is not one of Scott’s guys, but he understands why others are in on him. Ready for some dank stats? Love has the position’s most improved strength of schedule, worth nearly a full fantasy point per game than he averaged last year. From Week 11 last year, Love was first in touchdowns, passing yards, EPA per attempt, lowest sack-to-interception ratio, etc. The guy has the goods, there’s potential for him to be better than he was last year, and his ADP is currently round 7. Target.

Watch the full video below for more insight, including Derrick Henry talk, the RB dead zone and rookie QBs.

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🎯 Draft Resources

Must Draft Players

Ryan Heath’s Ride or Die’s

Kenneth Walker III // Christopher Hanewinckel, USA TODAY

Ryan Heath uses the Fantasy Points Data numbers to identify the players he can’t leave a fantasy football draft without.

Quarterback - Kyler Murray. Ryan believes an increase from Murray’s career-low 5.5 rush attempts per game is all but assured; he’d averaged roughly 27% more rushing YPG and 22% more rush attempts per game over his career before the ACL tear, marks he could inch back toward in his second season removed from injury.

Murray’s ceiling is that of a top-3 QB: excluding the game in which he got hurt, he averaged 22.7 FPG in the three years leading up to the ACL tear. Only Josh Allen averaged more in 2023. Add Marvin Harrison Jr. to this recipe, and you might have something special.

Running Back - Kenneth Walker. Even after Zach Charbonnet joined the backfield in 2023, Walker finished top-5 in team carry share (64.6%) and he leads the NFL in total missed tackles forced since being drafted. Walker has handily outperformed Charbonnet in most meaningful efficiency stats — with his lower yards per carry average easily explained by the heavier fronts he’s had to face.

OC Ryan Grubb is on record saying they want to utilize Walker more in the passing game too, but if Walker doesn't see more targets this year, Ryan still believes you’ll have drafted one of the most talented runners in the league who would be “fine” at ADP. But if he does add more receiving to his toolkit, he has legitimate high-end RB1 upside.

Running Back - ? As a rookie, this RB posted a Kamara-esque 1.98 YPRR, good for 4th best. This player has the potential to bring back the satellite RB role and is the perfect late round flyer. Read the full article to find out who this is.

Wide Receiver - Diontae Johnson. Last year, Johnson dominated the intermediate areas of the field unlike any other WR in the league. He just didn’t have a QB who could take advantage of the strongest part of his game by delivering any catchable passes at that specific depth.

New Panthers HC Dave Canales has squeezed around 25.0 catchable targets per game out of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield over the past two years — about league-average in most seasons. A renaissance for Bryce Young is coming, good news for Diontae.

Diontae just posted career-best marks in virtually every efficiency and he leads all WRs in ESPN Open Score over the past five seasons — he is the best separator in the league.

Wide Receiver - ? In this players first season, he led all WRs in fantasy points per route and ranked top 10 in YPRR among all rookies over the past decade, a list filled with perennial fantasy WR1s. This player has a ton of potential outcomes, but due to his price, you should be in on him as a target. Read the full article to find out who this is.

Tight End - Kyle Pitts. Thanks to Kirk Cousins, the Vikings passing game has been 50% more hospitable to fantasy production than the Falcons over the past two years, and over the past two seasons, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are the only TEs to have averaged more expected fantasy points per route run (XFP/RR) than Pitts - something he did with a serious injury. Combine Captain Kirk with Pitts and his XFP/RR and you have something special.

Here's the pitch from Ryan: In Pitts’ rookie season, he produced the most receiving yards ever by any rookie TE since the merger. He's demonstrated the ability to earn downfield targets like no other TE in the league and now he now has the most fantasy-friendly QB in the NFL, and also has a new OC from the Shanahan coaching tree. Combine all of that, and you get the most screaming fantasy value at the TE position we’ve seen in years.

To see the full list of Ryan’s Must Draft Players, read Ryan Heath’s Must Draft Players.

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