1. Starts and Sits 🔥

2. Buying & Selling 👨‍🍳

3. Best Bets 💸

4. Podcast Corner 📺

The Everything Report

Positive & Negative Regression

Positive Regression - George Pickens. Pickens is playing quite well, ranking 13th in YPRR (2.63) - but he hasn’t scored any touchdowns yet, despite ranking 5th in red zone targets (6), 6th in end zone targets (4), and 10th in receiving yards (284). On top of that, no player has fared worse with penalty luck. Pickens has had an astounding 18.3 fantasy points nullified due to penalty - with those plays included, he’d rank as fantasy’s WR13.

Negative Regression - Jayden Reed. Reed leads all players at all positions in FPOE (+7.9) - which feels incredibly unsustainable…but Scott believes Reed is the exception to the rule. Try your best and buy Reed in every league you’re in, he's an outlier talent and will continue to out-score his volume-based expectation by a wide margin. Get him while he’s still underpriced.

Positive Regression - DJ Moore. Moore ranks 11th in XFP/G (16.7) but just 33rd in FPG (11.9). He’s 7th among all WRs in targets and the 2nd-most designed targets (8) of any WR this year, bolstering his floor. The main issue is he has just a 57.7% catchable target rate on all non-designed targets (4th-worst of 90 qualifiers). He should end up as the Bears leading receiver, but remains to be seen if he'll pay off his ADP…unless Caleb Williams continues to progress.

Negative Regression - Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin ranks just 25th in XFP/G (13.8), but 7th in FPG (19.3 - but don’t stress. Godwin’s role - ‘the Cooper Kupp of Liam Coen’s offense’ - is valuable for fantasy and suits Godwin’s strengths. Scott believes he's due for a slight negative regression, and Evans is due for a positive one, but he’d still be betting on Godwin to out-score Evans this year.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 5 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

• The Guru & Brian Drake talk Week 4. Watch: Can You Really Trust These Rookie QBs to Win You Your Fantasy League?

• Steven ORourke talks Polk. Watch: BUY Ja’Lynn Polk In Fantasy Football

• Jake Tribbey & Thomas Tipple look at the slate. Watch: The BEST Week 5 DFS Early Look

Starts/Sits

Week 5 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 5.

Start - Jerome Ford. Most of his upside comes on passing downs as Ford has run 48 routes (11 targets) to Foreman’s four (1 target) over the last two weeks. Ford might get one more week as a borderline bell cow with Nick Chubb looming, and Washington is allowing the fourth-most scrimmage yards per game (158) to opposing backfields.

Sit - Ja'Lynn Polk. Polk just set a season-high in routes (82% share) last week and led the team in targets (7) as a result, but it's not happening with Brissett. He remains a solid stash in deep leagues because Drake Maye might save him later in the year.

Start - Tee Higgins. The production hasn’t been stellar by any means, but Higgins’ usage remains strong. He's earned two more first-read targets (31% share) than Chase (26%) in Weeks 3-4. He’s a terrific buy-low. Higgins’ role has been worth 17.8 expected fantasy points per game, but he’s only scored 9.5 FPG. Keep going back to him as a WR2/FLEX.

Sit - Jaylen Waddle. In five games not started by Tua or Teddy Bridgewater over the last three seasons, Waddle has been held down to 3/23 receiving (on 4 targets), 3/52 (on 5 targets), 5/44 (on 5 targets), 4/26 (on 5 targets), and 4/36 (on 6 targets). Not great.

Stash - Erick All. Stash him in TE Premium leagues. Despite running 20 fewer routes over the last two weeks, All has eight targets while Gesicki has six and decent production has followed. Elite prospect with elite upside if tapped.

Read the full Week 5 Start/Sit article or watch the video version below!

New England Patriots (3%) @ MIA - Miami has allowed the third most points to opposing DSTs - it’s a double-digit bonanza whenever defenses line up across from this Miami unit. Miami simply can’t score. This is a smash play for those seeking a season-long or DFS options, per Drake’s Week 5 Streaming D/STs.

Is Brian Thomas Jr emerging? He saw his fantasy points dip in three straight games before exploding for 6/86/1 receiving and a 1-yard carry for 21.9 FP against the Texans. The rookie ranks fifth in team yards share (36.6%) and 12th in receiving yards (275). The Colts deploy the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.1%), and Thomas is averaging 3.97 YPRR and .28 TPRR on 32 routes against the coverage, per Brolley’s Week 5 Game Hub.

Trends & Trades

Buying & Selling

Buy Trey McBride. The Guru believes Kyler Murray stinks, so other than occasionally hitting Marvin Harrison down the field, he’ll do his usual running around and will likely find McBride in the scramble drill. McBride has yet to get a big game, so his value may not get much lower than it is now - and those Kyler broken plays are coming, per Hanesn’s Week 5 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Davante Adams. The Raiders are taking offers on Adams which might excite your league-mates, but you’re smarter than that. Even if he's moved to a better situation, it’s going to take a few weeks for him to acclimate himself to his new surroundings. He’s a volume guy, and there are few strong landing spots where he’d be in line for a lot of volume, per Hansen’s Week 5 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Try to steal Travis Kelce. Before Rashee Rice (IR) became a full-time player after the Chiefs’ Week 10 bye last year, Kelce led all TEs with a 27.8% first-read target share. It was pretty clear that Kelce essentially returned to his old role after Rice left the game early, ending the day with a 31.0% target share. He’s only hit that mark in two other games since the start of 2021.

If Kelce’s skillset truly isn’t diminished from last year, and he will now be used on all the quick slants and short throws Rice was, he is easily back in the conversation as a top-3 TE rest-of-season. With Rice injured and possibly out ROS, Ryan believes you should inquire about Kelce’s price to see if his owner thinks they’re selling him high, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 4.

💸 Best Bets

• Aaron Jones over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 Bet365). Jones has accounted for 93+ rushing yards in 8 of his 9 games, which ranks third YACO/ATT (3.58). NYJ are giving up the 13th-most rushing YPG (102.3) and 4.6 YPC to RBs - where previously deceased Javonte Williams churned out 16/77 rushing against NYJ in W4, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 5.

• Tre Tucker over 38.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM). Tucker saw a 30% 1st read target rate in Week 4, putting him in line with players like Justin Jefferson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb. He faces a Broncos team that plays a ton of man defense - something Tucker has beaten often in 2024, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 5.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Digging for the next league winner? Read: The Market Report Week 5.

• Need to understand trends? Read: Fantasy WAR: 2024 Position Trends.

• Want to know dynasty upgrades & downgrades? Read: Dynasty Market Report: Week 5.

• Looking for anomalies? Read: 2024 Fantasy War Over and Underperformers.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 5.

• Want to link stats and the eye test? Read: Data Charter Notes: Week 4.

• Not sure who to take in Week 5? Read: 2024 Week 5 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 5 DFS Early Look.