Must-read Fantasy Points insights this AM:

1. 2024 NFL Draft Guide 🔥

2. Rookie Model Breakdown 👀

3. Rookie RB Yards Created 👨‍🍳

4. NFL Draft Bets & Props 💸 

Rookie Models

Scott Barrett’s Insights

Scott Barrett uses his proprietary model to rank the incoming rookie class for dynasty fantasy football.

Wide Receivers

Is this the deepest WR class in recent memory? Maybe. The best? Almost certainly not. The most overrated… possibly. Scott said he couldn’t recall a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned.

Scott’s No. 1 Ranked WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Why Harrison? Because he - unlike every other WR in this class - comes without warts or red flags.

Harrison easily leads the class in career YPRR when lined up in the slot (3.63) or out wide (2.87). Since 2019, only DeVonta Smith ranked better out-wide (min. >500 routes run), and only Smith and Jaylen Waddle ranked better from the slot (min. >200 routes run). 

The best comp for Harrison that Scott has heard thus far has been from PFF’s Sam Monson – “Imagine if DeVonta Smith was 40 pounds heavier.” 🔥

Don’t overthink it. Harrison is easily one of the best WR prospects to emerge in a number of years. He’s well worth the 1.01 pick, even in Superflex drafts.

Read the full Rookie Model breakdown for WR’s like Malik Nabers.

Running Backs

Scott is Team #BellCowOrBust. Without a guaranteed bell cow in 2024, landing spot volume is key… the right spot makes an RB a stud.

Scott’s No. 2 RB: Trey Benson, Florida State.

Benson didn't have the raw counting stats Scott's model typically likes to see, and Benson never dominated his own backfield in any season. But he ranked a full tier ahead of any other RB because he was freakishly hyper-efficient.

By missed tackles forced per touch, Benson had the greatest season by any Power 5 RB in PFF College history (2014-2023). By yards after contact per attempt, it was the 4th-best season by any ACC RB since 2014, behind Etienne, Khalil Herbert and Javonte Williams.

He also holds the PFF College record for career missed tackles forced per touch. Insanit. His ceiling comp feels like Nick Chubb, but more realistically falling between Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams and Khalil Herbert.

Read the full Rookie Model breakdown for an explanation of each RB.

Tight Ends

With the TE position in particular, it’s important to remember that very few TEs actually matter for fantasy. Historically, it’s been a position marked by immense income inequality, ruled by only a few wealthy elites.

In any given season, there are typically only 1-2 what Scott calls “Oligarch TEs” ruling over the rest of the peasants…true fantasy cheat codes. Beyond the top 2, TEs are significantly less valuable than RBs, WRs, and QBs in the game of fantasy. We shoot for the upside, not safety.

Read the full Rookie Model breakdown for TE and learn why Brock Bowers is one of the top 2 tight-end prospects of the last decade.

IDP Rookie Preview

Tom Simons previews the top individual defensive players from a fantasy football perspective in the 2024 NFL Draft class.

Tom’s Number 1 Edge: Dallas Turner, Alabama.

He’s 6,4, 252lbs and runs a 4.46. A machine. He can transfer from speed to power in the blink of an eye, which makes him extremely dangerous coming off the edge. His ability to bend around blockers is top-notch, and his quick instincts make him a proven run defender. He also has solid coverage skills, which should help increase his snap count during his rookie year. Atlanta, LA Rams, Washington and Carolina are all options.

Read the full IDP Rookie Preview to learn who the top CBs and LBs are in the class.

2024 NFL Draft Bets & Props

Team Selection & Player Props

Tom Brolley breaks down 2024 NFL Draft Props from a team perspective.

Team to draft Xavier Worthy: Kansas City Chiefs (+750, FanDuel). Placed April 17. As you heard, Worthy made a name for himself in the pre-draft process by breaking the combine record in the 40-yard dash with a time of 4.21 seconds.

He also excelled in the vertical jump (41”) and broad jump (10’11”) while checking in at 5’11”, 165 pounds. His expected draft position moved into the first round in March and it has settled back in the early second round as of early mid-April.

One of the teams who could look to select a WR in that range? Kansas City, at 32nd overall.

Worthy has been compared to former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill because of his electric speed and quickness. Rashee Rice is facing up to eight felony charges and a lengthy suspension for his role in a street race in Dallas in late March. Kansas City might need some help if they're looking to threepeat.

Read the full 2024 NFL Draft Props Team Selections article.

Number 6 Overall Pick: Malik Nabers (+150, FanDuel) — The Giants have been rumored to be interested in a quarterback at the top of the draft, but the Giants would be guaranteed either Marvin Harrison or Nabers to fall to them at sixth overall if four QBs were selected in the first five selections.

While New York is locked into Daniel Jones for another season until his dead cap hit drops to $22.2 million in 2025, the Giants are also reportedly sold Drew Lock’s chance to compete for the starting job during the offseason.

The book has most likely been written on Jones’ career with the Giants, but they owe him one last chance with a legitimate #1 receiver after five years with one of the league’s worst receiving corps.

Read the full 2024 NFL Draft WR & RB Props article.

Best Bets

Tom Brolley dishes out his favorite prop wagers for the 2024 NFL Draft.

• First Defensive Player Drafted: Laiatu Latu (+400, Bet365). Risk 1 unit to win 4 units.

• Team to draft Xavier Worthy: New England Patriots (+3000, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 15 units.

• Denver Broncos first drafted position: Offensive line (+1100, Bet365). Risk 1 unit to win 11 units.

Read the full 2024 NFL Draft Best Bets article.