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Week 1: DFS Insights

Four must-read DFS articles from Fantasy Points this week: Scott Barrett’s Week 1 DFS Breakdown, Jake Tribbey’s Week 1 Top DFS Values and DFS Study Hall, and Nick Spanola’s Week 1 DFS Coverage Shells, with snippets below.

Scott Barrett’s Week 1 DFS Breakdown

Each week Scott Barrett lists the best and most interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked (within varying classifications) in some sort of descending order. Four players to keep an eye on:

Rachaad White ($5,500) – Based on everything we’ve heard this offseason (including this report coming earlier this week), White appears locked into a full-on bell cow workload. He was probably the most mispriced RB all offseason, and is now easily one of the most mispriced RBs of the week on DraftKings, priced as just the RB22.

Joe Mixon ($6,800) – Like White, Mixon was one of the most mispriced players all offseason, and he’s mispriced again in Week 1 (RB10 on DraftKings). Mixon ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G last season (18.8), and his volume should be even better this year, without Samaje Perine (8.1 XFP/G). Last season the Browns ranked 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted rushing FPG allowed to RBs (+2.5). If Cincinnati wins this game (as Vegas expects), gamescript would be ideally suited for Mixon, who has long been one of the most gamescript-sensitive players in fantasy.

Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,000) – Minimum-priced rookie WRs are usually a trap in Week 1. But Scott can’t not be excited about Mims – a player he might have been highest in the industry on pre-NFL Draft. With Jerry Jeudy likely out for Week 1, Mims should be (isn’t guaranteed to be, but should be) a full-time player. He gets a great matchup against Las Vegas’ bottom-3 secondary, which is especially vulnerable deep, which also happens to be his wheelhouse. If Jeudy plays, pivot to Courtland Sutton or Jonathan Mingo.

Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900) vs. Deebo Samuel ($5,500) – Even several weeks ago Aiyuk and Samuel appeared badly mispriced on DraftKings, but especially now with George Kittle seriously banged up. So, which WR should you play? It’s complicated.

Aiyuk is San Francisco’s resident man-beater, a scheme which Pittsburgh plays at a top-5 rate. But Samuel always puts up a dominant performance whenever Kittle is out. But then again, Samuel’s usage tanked when Christian McCaffrey joined the team mid-season last year. Add it all up, and Scott agrees with our writer Nick Spanola – Aiyuk is a slightly stronger play.

Read the full article here to learn why Scott recommends paying up for expensive WRs in Week 1 - such as Tyreek Hill or Ja’Marr Chase, and to learn which TE is his favorite this week.

Week 1 Top DFS Values

Jake Tribbey helps you find the most mispriced players on the Week 1 DraftKings and FanDuel main slate using Scott Barrett's DFS SuperModel and projections.

Anthony Richardson is a legendary athlete paired with the perfect OC in an offense devoid of its top RB (and also likely without their 2nd-best RB). That’s too much to pass up at a QB14 price tag ($5,600).

Eight of the top 10 best single-game rookie QB fantasy performances of all time were by Konami QBs. Cam Newton dropped 34.7 fantasy points in his first-ever NFL game, and Richardson is one of just two QBs to post a better speed score than Newton since 2000. Richardson could post a tournament-winning score in his first NFL game.

Jamaal Williams will dominate backfield work, given the available personnel in New Orleans. But he isn’t very good. Among 51 qualifying RBs last year, he ranked 39th in yards after contact per attempt (2.7), 47th in missed tackles forced per touch (0.12), and 37th in YPC (4.1). And the matchup against Tennessee is brutal – the Titans were quietly the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last year (-3.6 FPG).

Chris Olave is one of the most mispriced players of the slate. Among rookie WRs all time, Olave earned the 20th-most receiving yards (1,042), 26th-most targets, and the 3rd-most receiving YPG. Olave wasn’t just great for New Orleans; he was historically great for a rookie WR.

His efficiency numbers back this up. Olave’s 82.9 PFF receiving grade and his 2.42 YPRR were the 5th-best and 3rd-best marks by a rookie WR since 2015. The only players who beat him out in both stats? Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.

And now, almost unbelievably, we get Olave at a WR15 price tag (if pricing were based on DraftKings' best ball draft ADP, he would be the WR8).

The matchup is pretty great too. Tennessee gave up the most receiving yards (4,935), 3rd-most YAC (2,235), and the most deep receiving yards (1,314) of any pass defense last season. Olave – who earned the 8th-most targets of 20 or more yards last season – should have a field day running behind the Titans secondary.

Read the full article to learn why Courtland Sutton and Luke Musgrave are Jake’s priority targets.

Week 1 DFS Study Hall

Each week Jake Tribbey provides detailed notes and stats from early research to help you better navigate the DFS slate. Three players to keep an eye on:

James Conner

1. From Week 10 on, James Conner averaged 19.8 FPG last year (behind only Christian McCaffrey).

2. Over the last two seasons, Conner averages 15.9 carries, 5.1 targets, and 21.4 FPG (would rank 2nd-best last year) when playing on at least 60% of the team’s snaps.

3. Over the last two seasons (regardless of snap share), Conner averages 21.6 FPG (would rank 2nd-best last year) in games Kyler Murray either sat out or attempted fewer than 2 passes.

4. Conner is the RB14 (by salary) in Week 1.

Miles Sanders

1. Miles Sanders stated he will be playing this week.

2. The last time Sanders had Duce Staley as his RB coach was 2019 – a season in which Sanders caught a career-high 50 passes (7.4 receiving FPG).

3. If we combine his rookie year receiving production and his 4th-year rushing workload, he would average 18.8 FPG – good for RB5 last season.

4. HC Frank Reich has repeatedly called Sanders “a three-down back.” He’s $5,600 this week (RB21).

Diontae Johnson

1. Only Cooper Kupp (14) has more games with 10 or more targets than Diontae Johnson (12) over the last three years.

2. But Johnson has also been plagued by inefficiency, averaging 14.0 FPG compared to an expectation of 17.8 XFP/G. He’s a WR1 by volume but a WR2 by production.

3. Johnson earns targets at an elite rate because he’s elite at getting open. He led the league in ESPN’s Open Rate last year, and has ranked top-4 in every season since he entered the league.

4. This is a long-winded way of saying Johnson pops as a great usage-based value (2nd among WRs in XFP/G per dollar of salary) at a way-too-low WR29 ($5,300) price tag.

Read the full article to learn why Khalil Herbert could post a tournament-winning score and why you should start Kenneth Walker.

Week 1 DFS Coverage Shells

Nick Spanola shares his research on coverage matchups for defensive schemes from the 2022 NFL season and lists his favorite matchups and fades for Week 1.

Team defensive coverage tendencies can fluctuate wildly from year to year, depending on both the roster and coaching turnover. For example, the Dolphins ran a lot of man coverage in 2022, but Vic Fangio is their new defensive coordinator (zone/two-high shell background). Don't be worried — Nick accounts for this complexity in his analysis in his research.

Seahawk WRs vs Rams

The Seahawks WRs take on the Rams, who head into 2023 featuring the same DC in Raheem Morris, meaning their defensive foundation shouldn’t deviate much, albeit with a less experienced unit after losing studs Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey.

In 2022, LA ran the highest rate of Cover 3 in the NFL (48%) and finished top-5 in usage of single-high looks at 58%.

Both D.K. Metcalf (2.55 YPRR) and Tyler Lockett (2.33) smashed single-high looks last year, but when you isolate for Cover 3, a component of single-high, their splits deviate – Metcalf (1.99 YPRR) struggled against Cover 3 in comparison to Lockett (2.96).

Against the Rams last season, Metcalf and Lockett combined for 24/349/3 on 35 targets, with Lockett scoring 56% of those fantasy points. Metcalf is currently priced higher on DraftKings ($7,000). So all of this rides in favor of Lockett ($6,700 on DK) as a value play, right?

That’s where Jalen Ramsey matters. The former Rams DB shadowed Metcalf on 48/72 of the WR’s routes in two games last season (67%). Metcalf averaged 0.29 YPRR vs. Ramsey, but 4.00 YPRR (!) against any other defender. Ramsey is gone.

Seattle is projected as a Top 5 scoring offense in Week 1, and you shouldn’t overthink Metcalf’s relatively high asking price against this Rams unit.

Quick Hits

• Trevor Lawrence thrives when defenses go into man coverage. In 2022, Lawrence ranked 3rd in passer rating against man coverage (113.5). Against zone coverage, his passer rating dropped to just 85.8 (24th). Luckily for him, Gus Bradley’s Colts played man coverage at the 8th-highest rate in the league last season (29.8%).

• Last season Tyreek Hill averaged 3.84 YPRR against Cover 1 and Cover 3. The Los Angeles Chargers primarily run Cover 1 and Cover 3, which account for 53.6% of their snaps. Basically, Hill is really freaking good, but he’s especially good against the two coverage shells he’ll be seeing most often this week.

Read the full article to learn which of AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith is the WR you want to start for DFS this week.

Best Bets

Week 1 Bets, Starts and Sits

Tom Brolley shares his Best Bets for Week 1, Graham Barfield’s Start/Sits and Best Bets below.

Elijah Moore over 2.5 receptions (-115, Bet365) – Moore was Watson’s lead target (4) on 13 attempts this preseason. Bengals were not good vs. slot WRs last year, allowing 10th-most receptions per game (7.0) and 8th-highest catch rate (72.3%). Would play up to -120, per Graham’s Best Bets.

George Pickens (Pit) over 41.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings). FP Projection: 59 yards, coming off outstanding preseason entering second season, 53+ yards in 6 of final 8 games in 2022, SF allowed 6th-most receiving YPG (167.5) to WRs, per Tom’s Best Bets.

D’Andre Swift (Phi) over 13.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM). FP Projection: 19 yards, beat reporter Kempski believes Swift will lead the backfield in touches, worked with PHI WRs during individual drills this week, NE allowed the 11th-most receiving YPG (38.5) to RBs, per Tom’s Best Bets.

Sit Marquise Brown (Ari). Brown is a great WR4 depth option and has WR2 potential when Kyler Murray returns, but there is no reason to risk Brown’s low floor, given this QB situation in Week 1. Washington is not a matchup to be afraid of – they will be better with the addition of CB Emmanuel Mosley – but you likely have other better FLEX options than Brown this week, per Graham’s Start/Sits.

Stream Juwan Johnson (NO). If you just lost Travis Kelce for Week 1, Johnson is likely available on waivers and has an ideal matchup. The Titans' defense struggled mightily vs TEs last year, allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted FP (+3.3). Johnson was a quality streamer in good matchups last season, averaging 9.7 Half-PPR points per game in six matchups vs bottom-10 pass defenses. That would have edged out Dallas Goedert (9.6 FPG) as the TE5 last year, per Graham’s Start/Sits.

Tweets

We know Tyreek Hill is great. But this week, he has slate-breaking upside.

It’s not too late for you to sell Skyy Moore.

If you trust history, don’t trust Week 1 favorites.

Injury Report

Fire Them Up

Dr. Edwin Porras breaks down the fantasy football relevant injuries and associated risk for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

Kenneth Walker III’s groin injury is actually classified as a recurrence, as Walker dealt with this early on in camp as well. He’s not on the final injury report and should be in your starting lineup. However, this is a screaming endorsement to stash Zach Charbonnet in case this injury rears its head again in the first few weeks of the season.

Breece Hall is about 10 months removed from his ACL injury and, according to Aaron Rodgers, brings another dimension to the offense. Hall will likely start off slow, seeing somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-50% of snaps, but will slowly work his way into the offense. Don’t forget that in 2018, James White averaged just 54% of snaps but saw 8 targets per game on his way to finishing as the RB10. Don’t fade Hall because of this committee. The ceiling is higher than a Colorado sports bar.

Terry McLaurin is coming off of a turf toe injury but has been practicing in full since Thursday. These injuries can be fickle, but the vibes seem good that this was a relatively minor injury. Expect a small dip in production as he works in, and don’t use him in cash games, but he’s a fine option in Week 1.

Darren Waller is dealing with hamstring “tightness,” but this can get dangerous in a hurry as the 31-year-old was on IR last season with, presumably, this same injury. Stay put for now, but prepare yourself for missed games by rostering a second tight end. He’s likely to play in Week 1, but keep in mind the astronomical recurrence rate with these injuries.

Read the full injury report for updated analysis on Jerry Jeudy and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

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