• The Roundup
  • Posts
  • Risers & Fallers - 2023 Schedule Reviews

Risers & Fallers - 2023 Schedule Reviews

QB, RB and WR Schedules, Fantasy Fallout of QB Signings & Much More

May 28, 2023

Welcome to a beautiful Sunday, accompanied by a day off (hopefully), cold beer (probably) and The Roundup (always). Happy Memorial Day Weekend.

This newsletter covers the strength of schedule at each position (hint: buy Joe Mixon), Super Bowl odds, the fallout of key offseason moves & much more.

Days after sharing his wish list of QBs (Hurts, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert and Jackson), DeAndre Hopkins was released from the Cardinals. Traded from Houston in exchange for RB David Johnson (remember him?) in 2020, Hopkins spent three seasons in Arizona.

Bills DE Von Miller said that Hopkins told him he wants to be in Buffalo. The Bills would need to do some salary cap maneuvering, but they can get it done.

Without Hopkins last year and before hitting IR, Hollywood Brown averaged 10.7 targets per game (WR5) and 18.3 FPG (WR7), yet is currently being drafted WR39. Like my previously full head of hair, that’ll change.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

Was this email forwarded to you? Do you want premium fantasy content delivered straight to your inbox?

Join 45,000+ subscribers - sign up for free 👇

MOST POPULAR

Strength of Schedule

Which WRs have the toughest fantasy schedules this year? Which RBs had the easiest schedules last year? Scott Barrett reviews each skill position to answer those questions and more.

Here’s an example: last season, Deshaun Watson had the toughest schedule among all fantasy QBs. His average matchup was worth -1.53 FPG. Looking forward, Watson’s schedule is the 2nd most-improved at QB, worth +0.81 fantasy points per game. Essentially, if he had this schedule last year, Watson should have moved up six spots in the overall QB rankings.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields // Quinn Harris, Getty Images

Last season, Detroit was the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing QBs — worth, on average, an additional 5.2 fantasy points per game. The Texans were the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing QBs, who saw their season-long averages lowered by 3.6 points.

It’s hard not to get excited about Justin Fields, who averaged an obscene 25.5 FPG over his final 9 games (would have ranked 9th-most all-time). Fields benefits from the most-improved schedule of any fantasy QB this year, worth a +0.84 FPG jump from his 2022 average.

The following QBs have the best postseason schedules (Weeks 15-17): Jimmy Garoppolo (+1.63), Desmond Ridder (+1.55), Dak Prescott (+1.51), Joe Burrow (+1.43), and Russell Wilson (+1.40).

Brock Purdy has the 2nd-worst projected schedule change of any QB, worth -1.96 FPG off his average. And yet, who cares. He’s basically free at his QB28 ADP despite averaging 18.6 fantasy points per start (8th-best).

Read the full article to find out why Jordan Love is the recommended early season streamer 👀 

Running Backs

Joe Mixon // Zach Bolinger, AP

Yes, the Texans were great against QBs. That’s because teams ran all over them. Last season, the Texans were the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing RBs last year — worth an average of 5.7 extra fantasy points per game. RBs fell short of their season-long average by 4.4 points when facing the 49ers, the toughest fantasy matchup for RBs.

Joe Mixon is the single best RB value in current drafts. Mixon was RB6 in 2022, averaging 17.1 FPG and ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8), nearly matching Austin Ekeler’s league-high 19.9. Now, Samaje Perine (8.1 XFP/G) is no longer with the team and was replaced by a 5th round rookie. If you’re still not sold, Mixon has the 2nd-most improved fantasy schedule this season.

David Montgomery’s landing in Detroit is ideal on multiple levels. He has the most improved schedule at the position (+0.72), Detroit’s offensive line is significantly better than Chicago’s, and Detroit’s RBs see much higher volume than Chicago’s - for example, they were 1st in opportunities inside the 5-yard-line (+67% more than the next-closest team) last season.

Derrick Henry has the softest overall schedule (+0.87) and by far the softest playoff schedule (+4.99) of any RB this year. League. Winner.

Rashaad Penny’s overall schedule is very tough, but he has the 2nd-best schedule in the fantasy playoffs (+3.14).

James Conner has by far the league’s toughest strength of schedule through the first 5 weeks of the season (-2.62). So, if you miss out on drafting him, you may be able to buy low before his schedule softens in Week 7.

Read the full article to learn which RB group Scott is avoiding “at all costs”.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen // Gary A. Vasquez

The Titans were the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing WRs in 2022; worth, on average, an additional 6.6 fantasy points per game. WRs fell short of their season-long average by 10.3 fantasy points when facing Sauce Gardner and the Jets, the best in the league. Yes, that is an almost 17-point swing for WRs facing the Titans secondary compared to the Jets.

Keenan Allen was already one of the clear top values at any position – he’s being drafted as the WR25 despite finishing top-12 in FPG in each of the last 6 seasons. He also has the best strength of schedule through the first seven weeks of the season (+2.34).

It’s hard not to get excited about Christian Watson’s league-winning potential, especially with a league-best postseason schedule (+5.00). Last season, Watson ranked best among rookies and 10th among all WRs in FPG from Week 10-on.

The following WR groups have the best postseason schedules (Weeks 15-17): Packers (+5.00), Jaguars (+3.46), Texans (+3.23), Bengals (+2.35), and Seahawks (+1.58).

Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore offer league-winning potential should Deshaun Watson return to old form. That said, their upside will be seriously capped when it matters most, as the Browns WRs face an apocalyptically brutal postseason schedule (-6.59).

Full article here. Scott covered the TE Strength of Schedule in this article.

Fantasy Fallout

Offseason Moves

Jimmy Garoppolo // AP Photo, John Locher

Graham Barfield wrote multiple Fantasy Fallout articles outlining the impact of the biggest moves in the NFL offseason. In case you missed any…

Derek Carr to the Saints - Because he doesn’t add anything as a scrambler, Carr is stuck as a QB2; his new team doesn’t change that outlook. But it helps Chris Olave. By last year’s EPA figures, Carr (+0.09 EPA/dropback) is a decent upgrade over Andy Dalton (20th-of-32 QBs) and Carr at least provides stability to Olave’s fantasy stock.

Jimmy Garoppolo to the Raiders - After a sluggish start in 2022, Garoppolo ranked 17th in catchable throws (82.3%) last season, well ahead of the 26th-ranked Carr (80.1%). Garoppolo was also more accurate than Carr in 2021. The Raiders also have 225 targets available - a whopping 40.5% target share - for new addition Jakobi Meyers and 2021-breakout Hunter Renfrow. Davante Adams is a lock for his usual 150+ targets.

Darren Waller to the Giants - Waller is the clear-cut #1 receiving option for the Giants, who have a year-over-year target share vacancy of nearly 30%. If Waller can stay healthy, something he hasn’t been able to do in two years, 115-125 targets is possible.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

Super Bowl Odds

Patrick Mahomes // Brynn Anderson, AP

Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley breaks down the 2023 Super Bowl odds. Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs and Eagles as the favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl at +600 and +650, respectively. The San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals are the other five teams with odds under 10/1 to hoist the 2023 Lombardi Trophy.

If you see the chart below, you’ll notice the team with the third-best odds has won three years in a row. Currently, that’s the 49ers.

The case for Kyle Pitts, by Graham Barfield. Not only was Pitts the first-ever rookie TE to go over 1,000 yards in the Super Bowl era, Pitts also became just the seventh rookie pass catcher to cross the 1,000 yard mark at 21 years old since 1966. The other six players in Pitts’ company?

Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Randy Moss, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, and Keenan Allen. Not bad.

From an efficiency standpoint, Pitts led all players in yards per route run (3.01) when lined up outside as a WR. Pitts was more efficient on a per-route basis than second- and third-best outside WRs Deebo Samuel (2.95) and Justin Jefferson (2.82) in 2021.

But of course, his second season was rough. With the bad taste of 2022 still stuck in drafters' minds, Pitts presents one of the best buying opportunities of the early off-season.

With the NFL schedule released, Joe Dolan reviewed the NFL bye weeks. Weeks 7 and 13 will be max pain:

Week 7 - CAR, CIN DAL, NYJ, TEN, HOU: Seven of the top 30 players by Underdog Fantasy ADP — Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Tee Higgins, and Breece Hall — are affected.

Week 13 - BAL, BUF, CHI, MIN, NYG, LV: Three of the top five QBs by ADP — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields — are off this week. So do two more inside the top 14 (Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones).

Listen Up

🎤 Ask Guru Anything - Fantasy Football Advice with John Hansen and Brian Drake covers the best ADP value in drafts right now, Jonathan Taylor in the late first & more (youtube)

🎤 NFL’s Top Cornerback Units, where Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) debate the top-10 cornerback groups in the NFL (podcast)

🎤 Navigating the WR Dead-Zone in Drafts with Brian Drake and Joe Dolan (podcast)

Three Tweets

Why did the Cowboys move on from OC Kellen Moore?

Graham Barfield is keeping an eye on Gus Edwards late in drafts.

Scott Barrett on Lamar Jackson’s passing upside with new OC Todd Monken:

Dynasty Corner

Five Overvalued Players in Dynasty by Ryan Heath. Number 1? George Pickens, who ranked 60th of 105 qualifying WRs with 1.44 YPRR last year – below all qualifying rookies in his class, save for Alec Pierce, Tyquan Thornton, and David Bell.

2023 Devy Top-10 QB Rankings by Josh Chevalier. For the uninitiated, devy is a dynasty fantasy football format that allows managers to draft college players and keep them as they enter the NFL. #1 ranked USC QB Caleb Williams closely resembles Jalen Hurts in his strengths and stature and is the undisputed top devy asset regardless of position.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. See you next week!

How did we do?

You deserve nothing but the best. We expect this newsletter to be that.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup - thanks for joining us. If you want to do something nice for someone, share this with a friend.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.