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šŸˆ Risers, Fallers & Week 4 Preview

The Everything Report, Starts & Sits, Best Bets and more

Welcome to Week 4. There’s nothing better than waking up, pouring some coffee and watching an NFL game overseas….right?? While the Vikings and Steelers battle it out in Ireland, let’s deep dive into the rest of the slate to give you some league-winning moves and bets for this weekend.

We also get the Dart show in Week 4…but I can’t unsee the Anakin Skywalker comparisons. Could he be The Chosen One?

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  • Trends & Trades šŸ“ˆ

  • Best Bets šŸ¤‘

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The Everything Report Week 4

Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath review all the fantasy football usage from 2025 NFL Week 1, with everything you need to know for Week 4

What’s wrong with the Jaguars? Trevor Lawrence’s struggles appear to be the main issue behind Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter’s lack of production - not the receivers. According to Brett Whitefield, Thomas is still separating well and looks like the same player, though a minor wrist issue and lack of screen usage (just one target despite Jacksonville leading the league in screen passes) make him more volatile week to week. He’s best treated as a low-end WR2 until he proves otherwise.

Hunter, on the other hand, looks explosive on designed touches but remains raw as a route runner, ranking bottom-7 among WRs in separation and seeing his route share fall from 76% to 58% in recent weeks as Jacksonville shifts him back toward defense. He’s borderline droppable in shallow leagues. If the trend continues, Parker Washington could quietly emerge as a sneaky slot option in Liam Coen’s offense, given his strong target-per-route rate (3rd-best in the NFL).

Stash Tory Horton now. Cooper Kupp seems uber-washed, posting a 0.000 average separation score on horizontally-breaking routes and ranking 61st in overall ASS this season, but despite that, his role and deployment are perfect. 50.3% of his routes have been horizontal-breakers, and the Seahawks rank top-5 in dropbacks with 2 or fewer WRs on the field (efficiency hack).

Kupp likely won’t take advantage of this incredible role, but if rookie Tory Horton ever overtakes him in 2-WR sets, it would be very wheels up. Most of Horton’s routes so far have been vertical, benefiting from the OC Klint Kubiak’s deep play-action cheat code, but if he can also eat into that Kupp role…watch out. He’s one of the best stashes you can have right now, and Kubiak even said Tory Horton reminded him of Justin Jefferson…guess we’ll see.

Jaxon Dart SZN? Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is starting for the Giants this week and should be added in superflex, keeper, or deep leagues. He was PFF’s 2nd-highest graded passer in the preseason and Brett Whitefield’s QB1 in the 2025 Draft. Dart brings strong fantasy upside thanks to elite mobility, averaging 49.1 rushing yards per game in college - even more than Drake Maye. His dual-threat skill set makes him an intriguing high-upside fantasy option.

Find league winners & more in The Everything Report Week 4.

Week 4 Starts/Sits

Graham Barfield lists the stats you need to help make your toughest lineup decisions for Week 4.

Start Cam Skattebo. With second-year RB Tyrone Tracy (shoulder) set to miss a few weeks, the rookie Skattebo is set up for bell cow usage. He handled 78% of the snaps after Tracy left the game last week and he’ll get plenty of dump-off targets this week as the home underdog.

Start Michael Pittman. We went back in on Pittman last week, and that paid off well (6/70/1 receiving). He has a standout matchup against these Rams CBs that just got cleaned out by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith last week. Pittman has 45lbs on both of the Rams’ perimeter CBs Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant (180lbs).

Start Juwan Johnson. Only Jake Ferguson (32) has seen more targets among TEs than Johnson (28). Only Trey McBride (33%) has earned a higher share of first-read targets than Johnson (29%). Just keep riding the volume.

Sit Calvin Ridley. This is a bummer. Ridley has turned his 20 targets into a pathetic 8/111 receiving this season and 70% of Ridley’s targets have been charted as catchable (WR64), which is only a slight improvement compared to last year (68%). Frustrating.

Sit Travis Hunter. After he was involved in 76% of the pass plays in Week 1, Hunter’s role has shifted more towards defense in Weeks 2-3. He’s run a route on 57% and 58% of the Jaguars’ pass plays in each of the last two games - so until he gets more involved, you have no choice but to bench him.

Sit Chase Brown. This is bad. We were hoping that Brown could come through as a volume-based RB2 with no Burrow, and that is fading quickly. In addition to the horrid run game, the problem is that Brown is adding little in the passing game, too. He has 8/43 receiving on 11 targets. At this point, he’s a TD-or-bust FLEX.

Read the full article for advice on who to start & sit throughout the entire Week 4 slate.

New England Patriots (14%) vs CAR. Always target teams playing the Panthers - their line is paper-thin and Bryce Young is mistake-prone. The Pats are a middle-of-the-road defense regarding pressure, but they’re well-coached and should win this game, per Drake’s Week 4 Streaming D/STs.

Ladd McConkey spike week? The Giants are a top-3 pass funnel and play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, where McConkey excels, posting a +17% higher target rate and top-10 separation vs man. NYG have also allowed the 2nd-most FP to slot receivers this year, where Ladd has played 61.5% of the time per Heath’s Week 4 Advanced Matchups.

Shadow Alert! Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell vs. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka. Mitchell impressed last week by shadowing Davante Adams and holding him to just 12 yards in primary coverage, suggesting he could be the real deal as a shutdown corner. If Eagles DC Vic Fangio uses him the same way this week, Egbuka may draw that coverage, which limits his upside. He’s still a solid volume-based WR2 this week, but DFS pivots make sense, per Dolan’s Week 4 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

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Trends & Trades

Players to trade/trade for, risers & fallers & more

Malik Nabers // Scott Galvin, Imagn Images

Buy TreVeyon Henderson. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for three fumbles lost, and Henderson’s resulting opportunity shares in the second half were nine of 12 carries and a 12.5% target share. If this holds or grows, the big plays are coming. Get him before he pops, per Hansen’s Week 4 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Sell Alvin Kamara. He never hit below 12.0% target share in any game last year, but he’s failed to reach a 5% target share in two of the Saints’ three games this season. Kamara has looked solid and has his signature balance, but if he’s TD dependent, you might have to worry about him turning into dust this season, per Hansen’s Week 4 Players to Trade/Trade For.

Buy Malik Nabers before it’s too late. Despite a rough showing last week, Nabers still ranks second in expected FPG and second in air yards share. He gets a decent matchup vs the Chargers secondary this week and rookie QB Jaxon Dart should hyper-target him moving forward - meaning this is the cheapest you’ll likely ever get him if someone’s willing to play ball, per Brolley’s Week 4 Game Hub.

Time to sell Nico Collins. 8-104-1 looks like a fantastic state line for Collins, until you realize that 53.6% of his fantasy points came from a blown coverage leading to a 50-yard TD catch. He had a costly fumble in the 4th quarter, and the Texans have failed to score more than 20 points in their first three games. If we exclude that TD catch, Collins still earned a 0.32 TPRR on 10 targets, but would have had another middling fantasy performance (11.2 fantasy points), per Menton’s Trading Guide: Week 4.

Outlook: Sell based on the Texans' horrible OL, offensive scheme, and QB play (Example: Rashee Rice + Michael Pittman)

šŸ’ø Best Bets

  • Baker Mayfield under 228.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings). Baker’s had 215 or fewer yards in 2 of 3 games and his receivers have some injuries. PHI has yet to allow 200+ yards passing to any QB this year, facing Stafford (196), Mahomes (187) and Dak (188), per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 4.

  • Matthew Golden over 38.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). His route share and his share of the passing air yards have increased every game this year, and Dallas is getting destroyed by the deep ball, allowing 444 yards on passes over 20+ yards in the air, per Barfield’s Best Bets Week 4.

  • J.K. Dobbins over 59.5 rushing yards (-145, BETMGM). Dobbins has rolled up 63+ rushing yards in each game this season. The Bengals have struggled badly against zone runs, and Dobbins is the third-best among all RBs on zone run totes with 6.7 YPC. The Bengals allow the 6th-most rushing yards per game (110.3), and the Broncos are 7.5-point home favorites, per Kelley’s Paul’s Props and Touchdowns: Week 4.

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