Ladies and gentlemen, this is a historic moment for your inbox - welcome to the first-ever edition of The Roundup.

Your leaguemates don’t stand a chance.

The 2023 NFL draft concluded with a few shocking developments (Jahmyr Gibbs drafted by Detroit at 12th overall 👀). There were some obvious fallers (Will Levis and his girlfriend), and post-draft risers (read on). We’ve got Dynasty Rankings, Market Reports & much, much more.

Thanks for joining us, and welcome to The Roundup.

— JR

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Draft, Draft and More Draft Content

2023 NFL Draft: Best and Worst Values.

Brett Whitefield reviews every round one pick using the Whitefield/Wecht Pick Value Model.

Best: QB Anthony Richardson. The only perfect value score of the night (100th percentile pick) was Richardson to the Colts. And if Brett thinks Richardson is the rookie QB1 on the field, he’s obviously our fantasy QB1. Massive rushing upside paired with an All-World RB? Sign us up.

While plenty was made about Richardson’s inconsistent accuracy — and rightfully so — Brett sees the fix as attainable. Richardson played behind a weak offensive line and his receiving corps wasn't much better. Don’t forget, new Colts HC Shane Steichen developed Jalen Hurts into one of the league’s best QBs.

TE Dalton Kincaid. After watching Gronk and Kelce ruin their lives, the Bills went out and got their own elite pass-catching TE in Kincaid. Buffalo is a perfect spot for the promising rookie, as he enters a pass-heavy offense and will likely man the slot to give Josh Allen another high-end target.

DE Jalen Carter. Carter was Brett’s top-ranked player in the class, and the Eagles got an absolute game-wrecker on the inside at #9. Many compare Carter to his new teammate Fletcher Cox.

Edge Myles Murphy. Murphy has every tool scouts look for in an elite pass-rusher and was Brett’s 15th-ranked player. The Bengals stole Murphy at #28 and expect he’ll help pressure Patrick Mahomes in the postseason.

Worst: LB Jack Campbell. Campbell was the worst pick of the first round according to Brett’s model, scoring as just a 70th percentile selection. The Lions reached for a player at a non-premium position. And it wasn’t the first time… (see Gibbs, Jahmry)

Read the full article.

2023 Rookie RB Dynasty Rankings

Scott Barrett ranks the top rookie running backs for your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. As always, Team #BellCowOrBust.

1. Bijan Robinson (Falcons): “The most predictive metrics we have for RB prospects are missed tackles forced and yards after contact. By all these stats, Robinson looks like the best runner we’ve seen in a decade or more. Factor in his pass-catching upside, and he looks like the best overall fantasy RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. Hand-picked by the most run-heavy play-caller in football, Robinson is the easy 1.01 in rookie drafts and the overall RB1 in dynasty startups.”

2. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is the “best pass-catching RB to enter the NFL in at least five years. I don’t think anyone can question that. The big question with Gibbs, and a crucial one for fantasy is: can he ever come close to matching an Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey in rushing volume?” Scott already ranks Gibbs as the overall dynasty RB3.

3. Kendre Miller (Saints): Scott’s dynasty RB3 in this class, Miller’s profile shows a player who wasn’t elite anywhere but was “great” everywhere (well, minus in the passing game). He is immediately the favorite to win over the “Mark Ingram role” in the Saints offense with Jamaal Williams as his only competition:

And with Alvin Kamara turning 28 at the start of the season, showing signs of regression, and staring at a potential suspension of six games or more, if not prison time, there’s upside for Miller in both the short and long term.

See how far Zach Charbonnet slides down Scott’s rankings - Read the full article.

2023 NFL Draft Market Report: Vets

FantasyPoints’s staff outlines the veterans most impacted by the 2023 NFL Draft results.

Geno Smith: Smith’s supporting cast improved with the addition of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba; an exceptional route runner who put up historic numbers in 2021 despite sharing the field with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba should instantly contribute in 3WR sets. Smith was 2022’s QB10 in FPPG and QB5 in overall FP, but is somehow only ADP QB16 on Underdog. That will change.

Najee Harris: The Steelers averaged just 94.9 rushing YPG in their first eight games, but 146.2 rushing YPG after their Week 9 bye, evidence of improvement on the o-line and a healthy Najee. This offseason, the Steelers upgraded their offensive line by selecting an elite run-blocker in Georgia OT Broderick Jones at 14th overall.

Drake London and Kyle Pitts: The Falcons added to their skill position group with all-world RB Bijan Robinson. Meanwhile, projected starting QB Desmond Ridder… may or may not be good? In the four games Ridder started for Atlanta, he threw for just 2 TDs.

Read the full article.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

Running with the Rock

Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings updated April 30, 2023.

With the 2023 schedule released, FantasyPoints betting lead Tom Brolley examines the betting lines for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. The Lions and Chiefs opener is the only game with a total in the 50s on the board at 53.5 points. The Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders are on the other end of the spectrum with the lowest total of 41 points.

Top-240 best ball rankings geared towards Underdog Fantasy’s 0.5 PPR leagues by Graham Barfield:

Now that we know their landing spots, review Scott Barrett’s pre-draft WR Dynasty Rankings.

Yards After The Catch: What Matters? 

Yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R) measures a player’s ability to create yards on their own, an invaluable skill. It is especially telling after adjusting for average depth of target (aDOT) – which explains about 18% of YAC/R for WRs and TEs. In this article, Ryan Heath separates the phenoms from the frauds and highlights the league’s most dynamic threats.

It was not A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith who led the Eagles in YAC/R last year, but Dallas Goedert. The shorter target depth obviously helped with that, but Goedert is no stranger to elite efficiency – he has led all tight ends in depth-adjusted yards per target over expected (YPTOE) in each of the last two years. Goedert’s game is only missing the volume it deserves.

Jerry Jeudy just set career-highs in YPRR (2.26, 13th), TPRR (23.3%, 29th), and FPG (WR21), but health was the limiting factor for Jeudy’s production. In healthy games (60% snap share or higher), Jeudy averaged 78.7 YPG and 17.0 FPG, 11th- and 10th-best among WRs last season. His ADP is WR22. If Courtland Sutton is moved, Jeudy has massive upside.

Read the full article to learn why you want to be buying Cole Kmet.

🎤 Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) recaps the first round, highlighting the best values, worst picks and craziest moves from an action-packed draft (podcast)

🎤 Best Ball Mania 4 Draft & Winning Strategies: FantasyPoints Best Ball Breakdown (youtube)

🎤 Under-The-Radar Moves That Could Pay Massive Dividends for Fantasy Football, including buying Samaje Perine of the Denver Broncos - Two-Point Stance (youtube)

Three Tweets

Scott Barrett on why you shouldn’t sleep on Will Levis:

Why we should be keeping an eye on the Bucs RB room, including UDFA Sean Tucker:

Josh Norman learned this the hard way in 2020.

Dynasty Corner

2023 Dynasty Over/Undervalued Players by Nick Spanola explains why Dalvin Cook and Najee Harris are two of the most overrated RBs, while Treylon Burks is a BUY:

• Some were concerned with Burks’ high slot usage going into the draft, mainly if it inflated his production/separation, yet only Christian Watson averaged more YAC in last year’s WR class.

• Last year’s WR1 Robert Woods is now in Houston and Tennessee allocated one seventh-round pick towards the position in the draft.

• Lining up on the outside as a hedge to Okonkwo makes Burks a breakout candidate for the 2023 season.

Oh and guess what? The FantasyPoints 2023 NFL season projections, led by John Hansen, are LIVE for 2023 standard and premium subscribers of FantasyPoints - you can access them below

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. See you next week!

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.

And that concludes the first-ever edition of The Roundup. We’ll see you next week.