Football is in the air! Memorial Day weekend has passed, OTAs are in session and we’re officially onto the 2025 season. This is the time we cling to every bit of news while impatiently waiting for September — whether it’s Stefon Diggs making questionable decisions on a yacht, Shedeur Sanders truthers charting his 7-on-7 TD passes, or every player in the league showing up “in the best shape of his life.”

Don’t want to miss a beat? Keep an eye on our OTA News Tracker, where Tom Brolley will be gathering and breaking down the latest actionable fantasy football intel from NFL OTAs and minicamps.

REMINDER: Get access to all our fantasy football, betting, and daily fantasy (DFS) content. Just $175 for the season, our NFL Premium Plan includes everything in our NFL Standard Plan ($60) + NFL Draft Props, NFL Best Bets, College Fantasy Football, weekly DFS plays and much, much more.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— Marcus

Breakfast that’s actually F-A-S-T

No more sad granola bars or sprinting out the door with just coffee.

Huel Black Edition is a ready-in-seconds shake packed with: 40g protein, 6g+ fiber, 0 prep. Just shake, sip, go.

Get 15% off your first order + a free t-shirt and shaker with code HUELSPRING, for orders over $75.

Try Huel today

Strength of Schedule

Scott Barrett breaks down the hardest and easiest schedules for fantasy football by position.

Quarterbacks

📈 Brock Purdy draws the 3rd-easiest QB schedule in 2025, while Vegas projects the 49ers’ opponents for the fewest wins of any team. This is a sign of good things to come, as Purdy has averaged 20.3 FPG in wins over the past three seasons, a +34% boost compared to losses. Despite all the injuries San Fran endured last year en route to a 6-11 record, Purdy still ranked top-10 in fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB). This, combined with his favorable schedule, makes him a clear value at his current ADP of QB12.

👀 Kyler Murray enjoys the easiest schedule of any QB across the full season and the 2nd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule. But that isn’t the full story… while opening up the season against several depleted secondaries (@NO, CAR, @SF, SEA, TEN) is sure to help his cause, Barrett is still hesitant to grab the Arizona QB at his current QB8 ADP. The Cardinals averaged a +2.0% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in losses last year (11th-highest) compared to -2.0% in wins (7th-lowest), and with the team having one of the 10 easiest schedules by opponent implied win total, it’ll be tough for Kyler to get the passing volume needed to be a truly elite fantasy QB in 2025.

Read the full article to see why Joe Burrow’s 3rd-toughest QB schedule may not matter.

Running Backs

📈 After having the toughest schedule of any RB in 2024 (-1.27), Kyren Williams will now have the most improved schedule of anyone at the position in 2025 (+1.58). As long as he continues to be the bellcow in LA, he should also continue to be a league winner in fantasy football.

👀 Derrick Henry has the 2nd-toughest overall schedule by FPG allowed to RBs (-1.13), but the 10th-easiest during the fantasy playoffs (+0.73). Even better, the Ravens are expected to be favored in all three of their games from Weeks 15-17 (@CIN, NE, @GB), setting up one of the NFL’s most game script-sensitive players for massive late-season performances. All of these games taking place outdoors in cold December climates, and Henry’s historical late-season dominance only make this juicier. If Henry gets off to a slow start against the single-toughest schedule for an RB over the first five weeks (@ BUF, CLE, DET, @ KC, HOU), he’ll be an immediate buy-low candidate.

Read the full article to see why the Lions RBs could come back down to Earth in 2025.

Wide Receivers

✌️ The schedule might have the most significant impact on Tyreek Hill of any WR in the league. He has the most improved schedule compared to 2024, worth an additional +0.60 FPG, plus his schematic schedule could prove even more critical. No team faced more two-high looks than the Dolphins in 2024, further limiting Hill’s chances to make plays downfield. But that might reverse in 2025, as he plays 10 of his 17 games against defenses that ranked top-12 in single-high rate last year. Despite the bad vibes surrounding him last season, the numbers suggest Hill could be a sneaky value at his current WR15 ADP.

📈 Tetairoa McMillan will be welcomed to the NFL by the 3rd-easiest schedule of any WR, headlined by dream early-season matchups against the Jaguars and Falcons. T-Mac should be an immediate antidote to this offense’s need for a true X receiver, as Bryce Young ranked top-10 in catchable throw rate on plays of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket (per Jacob Gibbs), but led the NFL in dropped air yards on on-target throws. Plus, it’s good to know that WRs drafted inside the top-10 over the past four seasons have averaged 7.5 targets/game (~WR23) or a 23.5% target share (~WR21).

Read the full article to see why Malik Nabers’ 2nd-toughest WR schedule shouldn’t stress you out.

Tight Ends

👀 Trey McBride gets both the 2nd-easiest overall TE schedule and the 2nd-most improved schedule after playing the 8th-toughest among 24 qualifying fantasy-relevant TEs in 2024. This, in addition to the likely positive TD regression coming his way (he should have scored ~5.8 more TDs, based on our expected touchdown model) appears to paint a bullish picture for him in 2025 after he commanded the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history.

But even with all this momentum, he may not be worth his current ADP of 22 overall (ahead of stud WRs like Tee Higgins). According to Wins Above Replacement, there’s nothing extra valuable about points coming from your lineup’s TE slot; it only makes sense to take one if you believe he’ll outscore all available WRs:

📈 Evan Engram gets the position’s most improved overall schedule and 3rd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule. He’s ranked top-6 among TEs in TPRR over each of the past two seasons and easily led the position in targets (140) in 2023. Plus, this Broncos team is perfect for him to play the slot/WR hybrid role in which he excels most, with no WR on the team aside from Courtland Sutton exceeding a 53% route share or a 13% target share in 2024.

Read the full article to see why Brenton Strange is Barrett’s go-to early season streamer.

Statistically Significant

End-Zone Targets

Ryan Heath takes a look into end-zone targets: why they're important, how they're predictive, and how we can use them for 2025 fantasy football strategy.

End zone targets are a great sign that a team wants to run their offense through a player, and they’ve historically been worth 1.66x the fantasy points of a normal target in half-PPR formats. However, some of last year’s leaders in this stat remain significantly over- or undervalued:

📈 George Pickens

• One of the unluckiest WRs in the NFL last season, Pickens lost the 3rd-most fantasy points to penalties and DPI calls. And based on the amount and locations of his targets, he’d have been expected to score ~7.6 TDs. Compared to his 3 actual TDs, that 4.6 expected TD gap was the largest on a per-game basis of any qualifying WR.
  
  Plus, he now finds himself in a Dallas offense that should throw the ball more under new HC Brian Schottenheimer, and his new QB Dak Prescott ranks top-3 in red zone accuracy over the past three seasons. In contrast, just four of Pickens’ 13 end zone looks in 2024 were chartered as “on-target”.

📉 Terry McLaurin

• From 2021 to 2023, McLaurin scored on 41.7% of his end zone targets, roughly in line with the league average. But in 2024, that jumped to 76.9%, the 2nd-highest rate by any player over the last four seasons. If McLaurin had converted in the end zone at his previous average rate, he’d have averaged just 11.8 Underdog FPG (~WR24).
  
  Aside from his TD rate, all of McLaurin’s peripherals in 2024 were largely similar to when he was averaging 10.3, 11.2, and 9.6 Underdog FPG over each of the previous three seasons. So while he’s sure to still be highly productive in one of the best up-and-coming offenses in the NFL, Scary Terry’s current ADP of WR16 feels like a bit of a reach given his heavy reliance on TDs last year.

Read the full article to see why Heath is willing to sell Marvin Harrison Jr. for Ladd McConkey.

Dynasty Corner

2025 Yards Created Class Breakdown

Graham Barfield returns with his proprietary Yards Created hand-charted metric, analyzing the 2025 NFL rookie running back class.

Yards Created per carry is a charted statistic where a running back is correctly assessed the amount of yards that they create beyond what’s blocked. For fantasy football purposes, this process has proven to be more predictive than using traditional counting stats and athletic testing metrics.

So, who performed the best by Yards Created in the 2025 class?

1. Ashton Jeanty (LV) — 6.19 YC per carry
   The only other RBs that have created over 6 yards and forced at least 0.45 missed tackles on a per carry basis are Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. Jeanty also created 5 or more yards on 42% of his carries, beating the record set by Mixon (41%) in 2017.
   
   

2. R.J. Harvey (DEN) — 5.67 YC per carry
   Harvey’s YC per carry is just behind Christian McCaffrey (5.69), Kareem Hunt (5.81), and Alvin Kamara (5.82) among charted RBs since 2016. Plus, he created at least 5 yards on 41% of his carries, tying Mixon’s previously mentioned rate for 2nd-best in the YC database. Keep in mind, he did this while in just his second full season as a starting RB.
   
   

3. Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) — 5.25 YC per carry
   With 0.45 missed tackles forced per carry, Tuten scored just behind Jeanty (0.46) at the top of the class. For reference, both of those MTF figures are among the top-15 charted RBs since 2016. He has some frustrating plays on tape (fumbling, missing cutback lanes, etc.), but he’s a late round gem among this talented crop of rookie RBs.

Read the full article to see how the other rookie RBs stack up.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

REMINDER: If you’re serious about winning, it’s time to get a Fantasy Points subscription to access all our fantasy football, betting, and DFS content.

View our NFL Premium Plan and NFL Standard Plan.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup. If you never want to miss a Fantasy Points article again, hit subscribe below.👇

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.