1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. Trends & Trades 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

A new TE1?

We were wrong about Aaron Jones. The demise of Jones was greatly exaggerated. It looks like his Week 11 performance was due to rib injury caution because, in Week 12, he was back up to near season-highs in snap share (80.0%) and route participation (57.9%). His backfield carry share was also the highest since Akers joined the team (88.0%). He’s a high-end RB2 this week vs the Cardinals.

JSN vs DK. Over their last two games together, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has out-targeted DK Metcalf 18 to 14, out-gained him 187 to 129 and outscored him 20.8 to 12.0 FPG…but it could be a mirage. Their XFP/G is significantly closer (14.3 to 12.5), over 50% of JSN’s yardage within that split came after the catch, and their first-read target shares are identical (32.4%). JSN still has the same role he’s always had, but he’s getting more targets. Scott believes he’s a solid mid-range WR2 moving forward.

Trey McBride TE1. McBride’s 58.8% first-read target share in Week 12 was the highest of any TE in any game this season. He’s out-targeted Marvin Harrison Jr 76 to 59 in their games together. His position-leading 26.1% target share is the highest any TE has averaged in the Fantasy Points Data era. His 2.46 YPRR is better than Kelce or Andrews have averaged in any season since 2021. So why is McBride averaging just 13.6 FPG?

Somehow, McBride has yet to score a receiving touchdown this season - only four TEs have ever finished a season with 76+ targets and no receiving TDs since targets became stat. Given his insane efficiency, Scott believes he’s closer to Brock Bowers for the TE1 in Dynasty than he previously believed - and if he starts collecting TDs to end this season, he could break fantasy.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 13 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇

• Week 13 preview with Graham Barfield & Brett Whitefield Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast

• What should every NFL team be thankful for? Listen: NFL First Read

• Scott Barrett & Theo talk risers, fallers and how to dominate your playoffs. Watch: School of Scott - Week 13

• Week 13 Dynasty update. Listen: Dynasty Points

• Sharp Week 13 Wagers. Listen: NFL Best Bets

Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!

Starts/Sits

Week 13 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 13.

Start Ladd McConkey. In their last seven games since the bye, McConkey is WR19 in FPPG (14.1). He needs to get more target share to be their defacto WR1, but his consistency is hard to deny. Strong WR2 moving forward.

Sit Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely. In their last 10 games together, Andrews averaged 9.3 PPR FPG while Likely was at 5.4 FPG. The Eagles are a tough matchup for TEs, allowing only 36.9 YPG, the fifth-fewest. If you have other options, you should pivot.

Start Brian Thomas Jr. Trevor Lawrence is back, and both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are out for the season. In Weeks 1-9 with TLaw, Thomas was a great WR2 (14.4 FPPG). BTJ is set up to crush in the final six games of his season.

Sit Devaughn Vele. Nix continues to ascend, and it’s helped Vele break out for 13.185/1 over the last three weeks. The problem? Vele is still a part-time player in this Broncos WR rotation, he’s yet to run a route on more than 67% of the pass plays in a single game.

Read the full Week 13 Start/Sit article or watch the YT version below!

Arizona Cardinals (16%) vs MIN. Drake is all in on the Cardinal’s ROS, and they came through with 11 points last week. MIN is tricky, but Arizona is sack-happy right now, and the Vikings might be without Cam Robinson - who left last week with a foot injury. The Cards should continue their defense roll, per Drake’s Week 13 Streaming D/STs. 

Pay attention to Adonai Mitchell. The Pats deploy man coverage 39.8% of the time (3rd most) - Adonai Mitchell has been targeted on an absurd 56% of his routes against man coverage this season, and he leads the Colts with a 20% target share in man. The Pats also allow the 7th most deep-receiving YPG.

With Josh Downs unlikely to play this weekend, Mitchell should fit into the slot splitting some time with Ashton Dulin, or fit outside if they decide to move Pittman inside more often. If you’re desperate for a dart throw or a cheap play in DFS, this is as good a shot as any, per Heath’s Week 13 Advanced Matchups.

Tank Dell spike week? Dell made the most of his 5 targets last week, finishing with 3.72 vs the Titans. The 72 yards were his second most in a game this season, and he’s scored between 8.3 and 10.2 FP in his last three games. Dell is great vs man, a coverage that the Jags deploy 40.9% of the time (second highest). Jameson Williams erupted for 4/124/1 in this matchup in Week 11, per Brolley’s Week 13 Game Hub.

Shadow Alert! Steelers CB Joey Porter vs Bengals WR Tee Higgins. The FP team anticipates that Higgins will get the shadow here, not Chase. Higgins plays more of a traditional ‘X’ role, where Porter is usually deployed. It’s possible Porter covers Chase or splits time, but we’re predicting a Chase pop week. In six games with Higgins this year, Chase has cleared 25 DK FP three times. Without Higgins? Just once in five games, per Dolan’s Week 13 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Trades & Bets

Buy Brian Thomas Jr. Trevor Lawrence is back, so it’s time to fire up BTJ again. He could be a real needle-mover down the stretch with a solid schedule, and he looked like he was emerging pre-TLaw injury. Check to see if his price went down, per Hanesn’s Week 13 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Jayden Daniels. Don’t sell at all costs, but poke around to see if other managers covet him. He looked better running around in Week 11, but some of his points have been fluky. They’ve got some tough games coming, and the WAS Week 14 bye is a killer, per Hanesn’s Week 13 Players To Trade/Trade For.

💸 Best Bets

• Ja’Marr Chase over 72.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). Chase has 89.3 yards and 11+ targets in 4 straight games. PIT gives up the 12th most receiving YPG, so this is a great spot, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 13.

• Darnell Mooney over 50.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet MGM). Mooney has topped this number in seven of his last nine full games, and the Chargers have allowed seven different receivers to top 50 yards against them in the previous five weeks, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 13.

• Mike Evans Anytime TD (+125, DK). Evans is third in the NFL with 11 end zone targets, the Panthers have a weak defense and Tampa has a 26.3-point implied total. This has a good chance to hit, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 13.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 13.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Wondering who the FP team is excited about this week? Read: The Market Report Week 13.

• Is Courtland Sutton back? Is Aaron Jones a workhorse? Read: Five Stats To Know: Week 12.

• Want to analyze the war in the trenches? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 13.

• Looking for injury info on Devonta Smith & more? Read: Week 13 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 13.

• Not sure who to take in Week 13? Read: 2024 Week 13 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 13 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.