Welcome to Week 3. The draft is ancient history, and the “small sample size” coping mechanism is starting to wear thin. We’re learning a lot - which breakouts are real, which warning signs matter, and which parts of September are just nonsense. Of course, fantasy never lets you stay comfortable for long.

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🔥 The Everything Report Week 3

Ryan Heath and Graham Barfield review all the fantasy football usage from Week 2 with everything you need to know before Week 3.

🐻 The Bears Passing Game

The Bears’ passing game is improving, but figuring out who benefits is another story. Caleb Williams’ accuracy has taken a major step forward, with his catchable-throw rate climbing from 69% last year to 76% and his off-target rate falling from 18% to 10.9%. Add in his rushing production, second-most among QBs, behind only Josh Allen, and Williams still has massive upside once healthy. Let’s hope his hamstring heals soon.

The pass-catchers are much murkier. Kalif Raymond somehow leads the team in targets, while Colston Loveland has just four through two games and now faces an Eagles defense that has been brutal on TEs. Rome Odunze returned to an 81% route share in Week 2 but still finished third on the team in targets, leaving him looking more like a boom-or-bust WR3 for now.

Luther Burden is the one to watch. His 31% first-read target share suggests a breakout could be coming, especially if his 64-68% route participation grows. He’s also badly underperformed his usage, averaging 12.3 XFP/G but only 6.2 actual FPG. The immediate concern: Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol, and Case Keenum could be forced to start against Philadelphia in Week 3.

⚜️ Is New Orleans a Fantasy Gold Mine?

The Saints may have stumbled into one of fantasy’s best environments. Tyler Shough is averaging 19.9 FPG and 41.8 dropbacks over his last 10 starts, while New Orleans leads the NFL in pace (25.6 seconds per play) and ranks 2nd in total plays this season. Add in Shough’s surprisingly valuable goal-line rushing role, and he looks like a legitimate top-10 fantasy QB rather than a two-week fluke.

Chris Olave has been the biggest beneficiary. Since the Rashid Shaheed trade, he’s averaged 21.3 FPG (WR4) and 20.4 XFP/G (WR2), while commanding 36.6% of the Saints’ first-read targets. Devaughn Vele has meanwhile run more routes than any player in football this season, making him a viable WR3, while Juwan Johnson has top-8 production and expected usage among TEs.

And there could be another weapon coming. Jordyn Tyson is one of the best IR stashes in fantasy right now. The rookie was reportedly lighting up camp before his injury and is eligible to return as early as Week 5, though a post-Week 8 bye return may be more realistic. Whenever he gets healthy, he could be walking into one of the league’s best environments for WR production.

🚲 Buffalo Finally Took the Training Wheels Off

The Bills appear to be consolidating their offense around their best players - and go figure, it’s working. Dalton Kincaid leads Buffalo with a 23.3% target share and ranks top-3 among TEs in both YPRR (4.89) and XFP/G (15.5), while his route share has surged from 44.2% last year to 65.7%. When Kincaid has cleared a 50% route share over his last nine games, he’s averaged 16.1 FPG. The breakout looks very real.

James Cook is getting the same treatment. He’s played 74% of Buffalo’s snaps through two weeks, a huge jump from his previous 50-60% range, with career highs in route participation (50%) and target share (11.7%). Ty Johnson’s eventual return could eat into the passing-down work, but for now, Buffalo is finally treating Cook like a bell cow and Kincaid like a featured receiver.

Find more league winners in The Everything Report Week 3.

🔥 Week 3 Starts & Sits

Joe Dolan dishes out the info & stats you need to help make your toughest lineup decisions for Week 3.

Bucky Irving // Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Start Bucky Irving. Irving’s role has been excellent, ranking top-6 among RBs in route participation (56.6%) and target share (17.7%), while his 71.1% snap share ranks top-10. He’s also handled 5 of Tampa Bay’s 7 red-zone opportunities. If the offense cleans things up, Irving has legitimate RB1 upside.

Start Jalen Coker. Coker ranks 5th among WRs in FPG and 3rd in XFPG, seeing 9 targets and catching 8 in each game. He’s also separating well and has already earned 5 red-zone targets, making him one of Bryce Young’s most trusted options.

Start Dalton Schultz. Schultz led Houston with a 26.7% first-read target share last week, a role that should remain strong if Nico Collins sits again. The matchup helps, too - Indianapolis just allowed Travis Kelce to go for 9/101/1.

Sit Drake Maye. Maye simply hasn’t played well, ranking 30th in FPG and 20th in XFP with the 4th-worst turnover-worthy throw rate (7.3%). The offensive line has given him time, so protection isn’t the excuse, and Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-fewest FPG to QBs. Unless Maye creates more with his legs, he’s tough to trust.

Sit Vikings RBs. With Jordan Mason on IR and Aaron Jones potentially sidelined by a knee injury, Minnesota could be down to DeeJay Dallas, Demond Claiborne, and a practice-squad elevation. If Jones sits, there’s not enough clarity or upside to trust anyone in this backfield.

Sit Colston Loveland. Loveland has just 4 targets through two games — tied with Cole Kmet and one fewer than Sam Roush. Now he faces a defense allowing a league-low 5.1 PPR FPG to TEs after surrendering the second-fewest last season. Brutal start.

Read the full article for advice on who to start & sit throughout the entire Week 3 slate.

Buffalo Bills (14%) vs. LAC. The Chargers’ offense has been a mess through two weeks, and now Justin Herbert faces a Bills D/ST that ranks top-4 in pressures with 7 sacks. Herbert has already taken three sacks in each game, while L.A. is allowing 11 fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs. Despite Buffalo’s own scoring issues, this is a strong bounce-back spot at home, per Drake’s Week 3 Streaming D/STs.

Another Kelce spike week? Miami has blitzed at the 4th-highest rate (44.6%) this season - great news for Travis Kelce, whose YPRR has more than doubled against the blitz since 2025 (1.44 to 3.09), while his target rate has jumped 35%. Kelce also ranks 4th among TEs in first-read target share this year and just turned 11 targets into 25.1 fantasy points in Week 2. He’s set up for another big workload, per Heath’s Week 3 Advanced Matchups.

If you’re facing JSN this week…we’re sorry. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Commanders CBs. JSN owns the biggest advantage in the WR/CB Matchup Tool this week, and the numbers are absurd: a 48% target-per-route rate, 6.02 YPRR, and a league-best 26.1% route win rate. Washington’s blitz-heavy, two-high approach has left the middle vulnerable - exactly where JSN has six TDs since last season, tied for the NFL lead. Against a similar defensive approach, he erupted for 6/147/2. You might need some miracles to survive this, per Vanek’s Week 3 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Players to trade/trade for, risers & fallers & more

Jordan Tyson // Reuters

Buy Jordan Tyson. Tyler Shough has picked up where he left off, and the Saints’ offense is rolling. Tyson could return as soon as Week 5 or 6 and was lighting up camp before his injury. With Chris Olave’s own availability concerns and New Orleans emerging as a high-volume passing attack, Tyson carries significant upside for the fantasy stretch run, per Hansen’s Week 3 Player Trade Recommendations.

Sell Omarion Hampton. Hampton bounced back in Week 2, but his role remains concerning. His route participation has stayed below 30% after sitting at 47.6% as a rookie, limiting the receiving work that should protect him in negative game scripts. Add in a struggling offensive line, questions about his fit in Mike McDaniel’s zone scheme, and a brutal upcoming schedule, and the Week 2 rebound could be a good opportunity to sell, per Hansen’s Week 3 Player Trade Recommendations.

Send offers for Jeanty immediately. Jeanty ranks 3rd among all players in XFP/G (26.4) and has a complete chokehold on the Raiders’ backfield with a 91% backfield XFP share and 81.7% snap share. Week 2 was marred by three drops and poor blocking, with Jeanty getting hit in the backfield at the league’s 4th-highest rate (50%). But the elite volume should be here to stay, and the offense should only get better, per Menton’s Trading Guide: Week 3.

  • Trade Outlook: This is incredible volume for an RB who entered the season with injury concerns. The offense should continue to improve, making Jeanty a priority trade target. (Example: De’Von Achane + Rashee Rice)

Move off of Saquon if you can. Barkley left after just 10 snaps with a “stinger,” briefly returned for eight snaps in the third quarter, and finished with only 3.0 fantasy points. There’s been little news on his status since, creating plenty of uncertainty around his health and workload moving forward. If another manager is still valuing Barkley near his preseason price, this could be a good opportunity to sell, per Menton’s Trading Guide: Week 3.

  • Trade Outlook: Ambiguous injury + poor OL + mediocre Week 1 production feel like obvious sell signals. (Example: Bhayshul Tuten + Ladd McConkey)

💸 Best Bets

  • Adonai Mitchell over 45.5 receiving yards (-114, FD). Fantasy Points projects Mitchell for 60.4 yards after clearing 60 in each of his first two games with a 76% route share and 23.1% target share. Detroit has allowed the 9th-most receiving YPG to outside WRs, while Mitchell averages 2.22 YPRR against Cover 3, which the Lions deploy at the 5th-highest rate, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 3.

  • Deebo Samuel over 38.5 receiving yards (-114, FD). Fantasy Points projects Deebo for 48.9 yards, and his role could grow with Demarcus Robinson out after an 80% route share last week. Arizona deploys two-high safeties at the 2nd-highest rate (72.6%), and Deebo has averaged 2.15 YPRR against that look since last season, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 3.

  • Must-play Sunday props, per the Guru’s Best Bets Week 3.

    • Harold Fannin Jr. OVER 3.5 receptions (-123, DK)

    • Dalton Kincaid over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, DK)

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