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The Playoff Push & Week 14 Deep Dive
The Everything Report, Starts & Sits, Best Bets, & More

Welcome to Week 14. One week until the playoffs. Six teams on bye. It’s all on the line. If you’re without Jayden Daniels, Nico Collins, Derrick Henry & more…we’ve got some names for you.
If you’ve already locked in a playoff spot, use this time to look ahead and make some smart pickups/adjustments. We can always look ahead to get the jump on our league-mates.
Let’s get to it.

Be like Jameis and go eat that W in Week 14
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Starts/Sits👨🍳
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Best Bets 💸
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Market CheckWhich RB would you most want for the fantasy playoffs? |
The Everything Report
League Winners

Top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game through Week 13
Isaac Guerendo - league winner. CMC and Jordan Mason have been placed on IR, their fantasy season is over. The Niner’s only active RB on the roster is Round 4 Rookie Isaac Guerendo - one of the top-7 most athletic RBs to participate at the NFL Combine. He should take over the majority of this workload.
Excluding this Week 13 snow game, San Fran’s RB1 has averaged 14.9 XFP/G this season, which would rank as the ~RB16. High-end RB2 territory feels right for Guerendo - he was worth unloading all of your remaining FAAB on.
Jonnu Smith is the real deal. Somehow, Jonnu Smith is Miami’s clear No. 1 receiver, ahead of healthy Hill and Waddle. Over the last three weeks, Smith ranks 2nd among all receivers in fantasy points and would rank 4th among all WRs in XFP. He looks like an obvious league winner - we’re getting WR1 production from Smith at the tight end position.
Bucky Irving is what we wanted Jahmyr Gibbs to be. In the first game after the Bucs bye, Irving set season-highs in every usage category, including running more routes than Rachaad White. In their next game, Irving set NEW season-highs in rush attempts (25), rushing yards (152), XFP (20.8), and fantasy points (27.5). Irving looks like the lead back moving forward.
This performance is likely what would happen if the Lions gave Gibbs a ~60% backfield XFP share rather than splitting evenly with Montgomery. If you take Gibbs’ performance and put Irving’s usage on top of it - Gibbs would be the RB3 over the full season. Treat Bucky Irving as a top-12 RB for the rest of the season.
Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 14 Everything Report.
📺 Podcast Corner
Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇
Week 14 preview & Playoff Push. Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast
NFL Award Picks & Week 14 Scout Insight. Listen: NFL First Read
Bucky Irving, Jonnu Smith & late season league winners. Listen: School of Scott
Dynasty trades you need to make & more. Listen: Dynasty Points
Sharp Week 14 Wagers. Listen: NFL Best Bets
Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!
Starts/Sits
Week 14 Decisions

Sam Darnold // Getty Images
Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 14.
Start Sam Darnold. He’s finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in fantasy in his last three outings and has just one turnover in that span. Darnold faces Atlanta who gives up the sixth-most passing FPG (15.4)…this should be a good week.
Sit Deebo Samuel. This year is shaping up just like 2022 for Deebo. He’s dealt with multiple injuries this season (calf, wrist, oblique) and he was sick with pneumonia in Week 7. In the 10 games he finished this year, he’s averaged 11.0 FPG - good for the WR44.
Start Keenan Allen. In their last three games, the Bears have consolidated first-read targets around Allen (32%) AND Moore (29%). Allen has turned his 31 targets into 18/200/3 (18.7 PPG FPG). The 49ers are burnable in the slot, where Allen thrives, and San Fran has also allowed the 12th-most yards per route run to slot options.
Sit Nick Chubb & Jerome Ford. The Browns cut Chubb’s snaps way back last week, he was down to 33%. This backfield is a compartmentalized split, at best. Ford ran 38 routes to Chubb’s nine, and both RBs took 9 handoffs in Week 13. Gross.
Read the full Week 14 Start/Sit article or watch the YT version below!
Seattle Seahawks (22%) vs ARI. Back in Week 11, this unit scored 20 fantasy points thanks to allowing just six points, sacking Murray five times and returning a pick for a TD. Seattle is trending up and we should be buying, per Drake’s Week 14 Streaming D/STs.
Brock Bowers…ROY? He continued his historic rookie campaign with his third performance with 10+ catches in a loss to the Chiefs. He recorded 10/140/1 on 14 targets (40%) to finish as the TE1 for Week 13 with 30.2 FP. It’s the eighth time he’s finished top 6 at the position. He leads all receivers with 84 catches and leading TEs in FP and FPG. He gets a great Bucs matchup this week, per Brolley’s Week 14 Game Hub.
ALL SYSTEMS GO - Ladd McConkey vs Chamarri Conner. Injuries in the Chief’s secondary have increased Conner’s role to a full-time role in the slot, as McDuffie plays much more outside than inside now. Since that change, the Chiefs have surrendered the 5th most +3.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot WR position over the last five weeks.
KC has a slot funnel, and McConkey is averaging 107.7 receiving YPG over his last three games. He’s officially on the WR1 radar this week, per Dolan’s Week 14 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.
The A.S.S. Report has changed how fantasy players analyze WRs. Using the average separation score (ASS), we’re able to find valuable, actionable insights to win your season.
See why Jordan Vanek believes loves Courtland Sutton, and find some league winners before your league-mates do 👇
Trades & Bets

Calvin Ridley // Andrew Nelles, The Tennessean
Buy Calvin Ridley. He has an excellent schedule over the next month (Jax, Cin, Ind, Jax) - two revenge games in just four weeks. Indy hasn’t been bad, but overall this is a great spot for Ridley to pop for you in the playoffs, per Hansen’s Week 14 Players To Trade/Trade For.
Sell Lamar Jackson. This is risky, but if you need a win this week when the Ravens are on a bye, you might want to make a splash and get some reinforcements. Lamar also faces the Giants (he might not have to do much to win), the Steelers (his worst fantasy output of 2024 vs Pitt), and Houston. If you can get a haul, this could be sneaky, per Hanesn’s Week 14 Players To Trade/Trade For.
💸 Best Bets
Jerry Jeudy over 65.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365). He’s reached 5+ receptions and 73+ yards in five consecutive games with Winston. With Tillman recovering from a concussion, the Browns could condense targets again, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 14.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine over 35.5 receiving yards (-125, Fanatics). NWI has been a touchdown machine with eight total TDs in his last eight games, but that’s not all. He also has 39+ yards in five of his last six, and he’s facing the Jags who allow the most yards per game to outside WRs, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 14.
Russell Wilson over 224.5 passing yards (-115, DK). The moonball is back, Wilson averages 4.3 throws of 20+ air yards per game. He’s fourth in the league in deep ball rate with 15% - this has the makings of another shootout, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 14.
Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 14.
📖 Quick Hitters
Wondering why the FP team loves Bucky Irving & Ladd McConkey? Read: The Market Report Week 14.
Has Bucky Irving taken over? Read: Five Stats To Know: Week 13.
Want to analyze the war in the trenches? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 14.
Looking for injury info on Malik Nabers & DeVonta Smith? Read: Week 14 Fantasy Injury Preview.
Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 14.
Not sure who to take in Week 14? Read: 2024 Week 14 Staff Picks.
Need some DFS help? Read: Week 14 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.
📱 Tweet of the Week
Would you want your favorite NFL team to trade for Kyle Shanahan?
What should you be willing to spend to acquire Kyle Shanahan in a trade?
Something on par with whatever you would give up to get Patrick Mahomes. (I legit unironically believe this.)
Since 2017 -- Patrick Mahomes' rookie season and Kyle Shanahan's first season as HC of the… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
8:26 PM • Dec 4, 2024
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