1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. Trends & Trades 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

The Fantasy GOAT Returns

CMC to save your season? McCaffrey has unicorn usage. He has more career receptions per game (5.6) than Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones or Mike Evans. His 91.4 rushing YPG last year would rank behind only Henry, Barkley and Mixon this season. He’ll be great for your fantasy team - but he’ll also light a fire in this 49ers offense, something we should all be looking forward to.

With CMC’s absence, defenses have been crowding the middle of the field with additional defenders in coverage, while also playing man coverage more frequently. This caused the Niners offense to produce a league-low 36.3% of its passing yards after the catch, down significantly from the last two seasons. With CMC in the backfield, teams will have to stack the box and play more zone, improving the production for the rest of their weapons. CMC is going to smash…but the other SF weapons might too.

Calvin Ridley comeback. Ridley has seen at least 8 targets in 4 straight games, ranking behind only CeeDee Lamb in XFP in those games, benefiting from the pass-heavy offense under Mason Rudolph and the Hopkins trade. Without Hopkins, he’s averaging 45.7% air yardage share, 40.8% first-read target share and a 32.4% target share - which would all rank top-7 over the full season. We might be seeing the Ridley resurgence.

Is JSN for real? In his three career games without Metcalf on the field, Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 9 targets, 104 receiving YPG and 22.1 FPG…massive. In all other games, he averages 6.1 targets, 38.4 YPG and 9.1 FPG. The biggest difference? His air yardage booms in games without DK, reaching up to 67.2%. In all other games with DK, he tops out at around 21.7%. Downfield usage is key to success for JSN, but DK takes it from him. In games without DK, start JSN as a WR2. In games with DK…he’s a WR3.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 10 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇

• Dallas Collapse, Burrow Takeover & more. Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast

• Trade Deadline Review, Power Rankings & more. Listen: NFL First Read

• Unicorn Achane, League Winning Players & Trends. Listen: School of Scott

• Dangerous Dynasty Narratives & Trades. Listen: Dynasty Points

• Week previews. Listen: NFL Best Bets

• Week 10 Start/Sits

Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!

Starts/Sits

Week 10 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 10.

Start Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over the last two weeks, Tracy exploded for 36/211/1 rushing. He’s still splitting passing down work with Singletary, but Tracy is dominating red-zone carries (4). Carolina gives up 168.7 scrimmage yards per game to RBs. Smash.

Sit Javonte Williams. In 9 games, Williams has finished inside the top 24 at RB just twice and Sean Payton is on record saying they expect to use Audric Estime more down the stretch. Less volume and a horrific matchup vs the Chiefs means finding another option.

Start TJ Hockenson. He was slightly limited with a 53% route involvement and four targets in his season debut, but the matchup vs the Jags is elite. The Jags have been crushed for 30/353/4 receiving - 17.9 PPR FPG over the last five weeks.

Sit Xavier Worthy. In a premier matchup last week, Worthy air-balled for a painful 0/0 on two targets, and failed to get both feet in-bound on a play where he would have taken it in for a 30-yard TD. With Hopkins in the fold, Worthy is a huge boom-or-bust player.

Stash Khalil Herbert. Zack Moss is done for the season, and Herbert is the new Chase Brown handcuff. Keep an eye on how he gets worked in.

Read the full Week 10 Start/Sit article

Atlanta Falcons (10%) vs NO. The Saints just fired their head coach, OC and OL coach. Olave is out, so Carr’s receiving options are minimal. The Falcons should have the lead most of this game, which should cause Carr to press and make mistakes, per Drake’s Week 10 Streaming D/STs. 

Malik Nabers SZN. Defensively, CAR deploys the 6th-most zone coverage and the 2nd-most single-high coverage (67.2%) in the league. Malik Nabers dominates his team’s targets in single-high looks with around 40% target share, making him a prime candidate for a big weekend in Germany, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 10.

Jordan Addison boom week? The Jags allow the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.1) and the most YPG (125.4) to opposing receivers lined up out wide. They’ve also allowed the most receiving YPG on throws traveling 20+ yards downfield (84.2). Since the start of last season, Addison sees a +55.6% boost to his YPRR and a +33.7% boost to his FP/RR against two-high, while Jefferson sees a -31.9 % YPRR reduction…the Jags run two-high at least 50% in 5 of the last 6 games, per Heath’s Week 10 Advanced Matchups.

Shadow Alert! Broncos Pat Surtain vs Chiefs DeAndre Hopkins. Surtain is maybe the best CB in the league, but like most shadow CBs, he rarely goes into the slot. In his second game with the Chiefs, Hopkins ran 45.2% of his routes in the slot, confirming he’s in more of the Rashee Rice role. But even if Surtain doesn’t follow him in the slot, Denver’s excellent slot CB McMillian will pick him up. You should role him out as a WR2, but don’t expect a peak week, per Dolan’s Week 10 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

Trends & Trades

Buy Brock Bowers. He hasn’t had an explosion game recently, and the Raiders are on bye this week, so maybe the manager of Bowers is desperate for a win. After the bye, Bowers gets a great schedule for tight ends…worth a look, per Hanesn’s Week 10 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Kareem Hunt. He’s looked rejuvenated over the last four games and ranks as the RB15 in FPG with 16.4 0- and he has a great schedule coming up - but Pacheco is expected back by the end of the month, and the Guru questions how sustainable this run is for him, per Hanesn’s Week 10 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Is Ricky Pearsall emerging? He caught all 4 of his targets (15.4%) for 38 yards on 23 routes (70%) and added a 39-yard run for 11.7 FP in a win over the Cowboys in Week 8. He’s got a great ASS and we should expect to see him get a bigger role out of the bye, per Brolley’s Week 10 Game Hub.

Buy high on Tyrone Tracy Jr. In a ‘home’ redraft league where player trade values are determined primarily by how many fantasy points they’ve scored over the past few weeks, Tyrone Tracy is Ryan’s favorite buy target. He’s averaged just 12.4 FPG since Singletary returned, but the underlying usage is very encouraging. He’ll likely be viewed as a top-18 RB after this weekend, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 9.

💸 Best Bets

• Garrett Wilson over 65.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet 365). Wilson has hit 90 yards in 4 of the last 5 games, and Arizona gives up the seventh-most YPRR to receivers out wide. ARI deploys the seventh-highest rate of Cover 3, a coverage Wilson thrives in, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 10.

• Saquon Barkley over 85.5 rushing pards (-110, Bet MGM). Barkley has run for 108+ yards in three straight games. and in five of the Eagles’ six wins this year. The Birds are 7.5 point road favorites, while the Cowboys are the league’s second-largest run-funnel defense, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 10.

• Jayden Daniels over 250 passing yards (+190, DK). The Steelers are a scary defense, but Vegas still expects scoring. PIT have hurried QBs at just a 4.4% rate while deflecting passes at an NFL-low 3.7% rate. If they’re not around the QB and the ball, Daniels can take advantage, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 10.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 10.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Wondering why the FP team is excited about Chase Brown & Mooney? Read: The Market Report Week 10.

• Looking for injury info on CMC, Lamb & more? Read: Week 10 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 10.

• Selling in Dynasty but not sure how? Read: Midseason Dynasty Rebuilding Strategy.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 10.

• Not sure who to take in Week 10? Read: 2024 Week 10 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 10 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.