Welcome to The Roundup, another way Fantasy Points helps you score more fantasy points - its one thing Michael Rapaport, Jim Cramer and you all have in common.

After weeks of speculation, the Tennessee Titans won the DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes.

Entering year 10, Hopkins chose the guaranteed payday instead of waiting until late July/August for an injury or cap space to free up from other teams. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Titans signed Hopkins for a $12M base salary in 2023 with incentives totaling up to $32M over the two-year deal.

To draft or not to draft?

Read Graham Barfield’s fantasy fallout article on the Hopkins signing for everything you need to know.

And if you are using the Data Suite tool, what did you think? Let us know by replying to this newsletter. We read every response you send in.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

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Just Win, Baby

Jeff Henderson uses his proprietary metric, Wins Above Replacement (WAR), to develop a 2023 draft strategy.

What does WAR mean?

WAR represents the number of games fantasy owners would win in a season by starting Player X instead of a replacement (average) player at the same position. In simple terms, it is the number of wins you can expect to gain with Player X on your team.

For example, if you drafted Alvin Kamara in a 12-team 0.5 PPR league in 2020, you could expect to win about 62% of your games because of Kamara. Kamara’s league-leading wins above replacement figure for 2020 was 3.57.

Henderson’s theory is explained in greater detail in his must-read post Fantasy WAR Part I: Theory.

Heading into 2023

One of the biggest takeaways is the impact top quarterbacks provided fantasy teams. If you followed his work last preseason, you know Henderson was all in on taking Josh Allen in Round 2, as top-ranked quarterbacks have shown year-over-year consistency in earning Round 1 WAR valuations.

As the article explains, you should have seven goals for 2023 drafts. Four are outlined below, read the full article for the final three.

1. Draft Mahomes, Allen or Hurts in Round 2

Top-name quarterbacks have proven year-over-year consistency in the past several years, and the gap between these three and the rest of the pack is enough to justify acquiring one of these guys.

2. Steal Amari Cooper at ADP of 40

Amari Cooper is perhaps the biggest value not named Jalen Hurts. He’s cheap because Deshaun Watson struggled in limited reps last season, but if you think Watson will use his $230 million arm to hand off to Nick Chubb more than 50% of the time, you may regret passing on Cooper.

3. Pour one out for Godwin & Evans

The Buccaneer battle for the starting QB role between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask takes the high seas this summer. This is not great news for any pass catcher. Let someone else walk the plank with these guys.

4. Draft Justin Fields and win your league

Full disclosure — Henderson is a Bears fan. But everything is set for Fields to take off. A true #1 wide receiver. A coach allowing him to run. And most importantly: a bad defense. If you are passing on the top quarterbacks in Round 2, be sure you snipe Fields a round above his ADP.

Read the full article for Jeff’s three other draft goals, which include targeting Tee Higgins or Devonta Smith.

Franchise Focus

NFC East

This NFC East review is part of our Franchise Focus series, where we break down each NFL team from a fantasy perspective.

Cowboys

Is Dak Prescott officially a “what you see is what you get” quarterback who has hit his ceiling? It certainly feels that way.

Prescott was good when healthy. He was 12th among QBs in highly accurate throw percentage, which measures how often a passer hits a receiver in stride. Prescott had a high floor, finishing as a top-10 fantasy QB in half of his games and top-20 in over 80%. Dallas upgraded their receiving group this off-season, with Brandin Cooks slated to add speed on the perimeter.

But those INTs… Cowboys fans remember that, despite missing five games with a thumb injury suffered in Week 1, Prescott tied for the NFL lead in INTs (15, tied with Davis Mills). Bad luck played a role, as Prescott was just 9th among QBs in turnover-worthy throw rate (4.1%), among all QBs with 200 or more dropbacks.

In 2023, with the aggressive OC Kellen Moore gone, Prescott’s typically high aDOTs could fall (less deep passes). Prescott is also missing Dalton “Safety Blanket” Schultz" and the Cowboys o-line is another year older. Still, Prescott holds a high ceiling on a strong offense.

Maybe Dak is just Kirk Cousins?

Read the full article for our thoughts on why Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb could reach their ceiling in 2023.

Giants

The Giants went bargain hunting at wide receiver and landed the Colts’ 2019 second-round pick in Parris Campbell. Finally healthy in 2022 (Campbell played all 17 games) after appearing in just 30% of his contests in his first three seasons, Campbell posted 63/623/3 receiving on 91 targets (14.2% share) to finish as the WR58 with 6.9 FPG. But he needed major volume to get his numbers, with an ugly 1.09 yards per route run average.

John Hansen was thinking about Campbell as the best WR pick on the Giants, and a recent conversation with ESPN’s Jordan Raanan clinched it; Campbell has the most talent and versatility. He could be the guy.

Campbell looks like the best bet for consistent volume, mostly in the slot, and if his injury woes are truly behind him, he should go down as a great value pick for cheap catches around 175 overall, with some upside. We’re not worried about Cole Beasley…

Read the full article for our thoughts on Darren Waller, Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley in 2023.

Eagles

The Eagles arguably have the most talent-per-dollar in any backfield, with Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift. Swift has been on the cusp of being one of the league’s best RBs since the Lions drafted him with the 35th pick of the 2020 Draft, but few understand how elite Penny is.

Penny’s career has been as injury-riddled as any professional RB, dealing with a torn ACL in 2019 and a broken Tibia in 2022, on top of a litany of soft tissue injuries over his five-year tenure in Seattle. But when healthy, Penny’s raw rushing abilities are borderline unmatched.

When healthy, there isn’t another RB in the history of professional football that comes close to Penny’s efficiency. Penny has earned 12 or more touches in 11 career games, averaging 19.8 FPG and 7.2 YPC. For perspective, 7.2 YPC is 1.3 YPC better than the next-closest rusher with over 150 carries (JK Dobbins) and 2 YPC better than Nick Chubb’s career YPC (5.2). The same was true during Penny’s college career, as he ranks 7th all-time among college RBs (min. 300 carries) in YPC (7.5)

But health is the major disclaimer with Penny. He’s missed 40 regular season games over his five seasons and is currently recovering from a broken leg. Our projections reflect this health risk, but Penny could smash in the league’s 5th-most productive rushing attack in 2022 by total rushing yards (2,509).

Read the full article for our thoughts on the other elite skill position players on the Eagles.

Commanders

Long rumored to be a head coaching candidate, Eric Bieniemy moved to the Commanders to show what he can do on his own. His fate rests in the hands of sophomore QB Sam Howell.

Howell was considered a likely future Round 1 NFL Draft pick entering his junior season, but after a rough final college season and an even rougher fall to Round 5, he landed with the Commanders. His sole NFL action came during Week 18 in Washington’s 26-6 win over the Dallas Cowboys, where he threw for 169 yards and a first-quarter TD to Terry McLaurin, while tacking on five carries for 35 yards and a TD on the ground. Howell is a complete wild card heading into what is essentially his rookie campaign.

In the event that Howell crashes and burns, the Commanders brought in Jacoby Brissett on a 1-year, $8 million deal.

Read the full article for our thoughts on the Commanders WRs in 2023.

🎤 New Orleans Saints with Ross Jackson - Ross Jackson of @LockedOnSaints answers questions about Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara's potential suspension, if Michael Thomas can actually return to form, Taysom Hill's role, and more (podcast)

🎤 Carolina Panthers with John Ellis - John Ellis of @997TheFox and The Roar podcast talks the Panthers' new QB and offense, the outlook for Miles Sanders as a bell-cow, and just who might lead this mishmash group of receivers in yardage (podcast)

🎤 Atlanta Falcons with Jeanna Kelley - Jeanna Kelley of @TheFalcoholic answers questions about Desmond Ridder, Bijan Robinson, and how we can get Kyle Pitts more touchdowns (podcast)

Tweets

It’s probably not Kyle Pitts’ fault…

Maybe Aaron Rodgers isn’t washed…

And maybe you should draft Cam Akers everywhere you can?

Dynasty Corner

THE Interview

Outside of rookie drafts, Scott Barrett doesn’t talk about dynasty much anymore. Why? Because there's not much to talk about; it's closer to being a solved game than any other format.

This conversation on dynasty strategies with TJ Calkins - the best dynasty player of all-time - is a must listen.

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For those of you who tried the Data Suite tool, what did you think? Let us know by replying to this newsletter. We read every response you send in.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com.

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.