1. Starts and Sits 🔥

2. DFS Plays 👨‍🍳

3. Best Bets 💸

4. Podcast Corner 📺

Starts/Sits

Week 1 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 1.

Start Caleb Williams. In his first-ever NFL start, the Williams-led Bears are implied to score 24.3 points based on the over/under (45 points) and spread (CHI -4). This trails only the Bills, Lions Dolphins Texans, Eagles and Chiefs. Graham is bullish on the rookie in his first start.

Start James Cook. Graham has major questions about Cook’s fantasy outlook this season, but this is a great opening matchup. Arizona hemorrhaged a league-high 143.2 rushing yards per game and 4.67 YPC last season. Be weary of red flag usage in the red zone, but Graham will trot him out this week.

Start Jaylen Waddle. Jacksonville has a great pass rush, but they’re burnable in the secondary, CB Tyson Campbell can’t cover everyone. The Jags allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (22.2 per game) and the sixth-most receiving yards (123 per game) to opposing outside wide receivers last season.

Sit the Buffalo WRs. Keon Coleman Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir is a brand new WR core, so it’s hard to trust anyone at this stage. Samuel is working back from injury, Coleman is a rookie and Shakir has yet to pop. One will likely hit, but Graham wants to wait and see after Week 1.

Sit Zamir White. Graham believes White was the most overvalued player in fantasy football as a Round 7 selection. Mattinson almost had even snaps & route participation in the final preseason dress rehearsal. Graham believes White is an early-down grinder on a bad projected offense, not a bell cow, on top of a low implied score total for the Raiders (18.8).

Sit Diontae Johnson. This is a rough opening matchup for Johnson. The Saints always play stout in the secondary - only the Ravens (.24) allowed fewer fantasy points per route run than the Saints (.26) to opposing outside receivers last season. Graham is fading.

Read the full Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, or watch the YT version below to see why he’s flexing Tank Dell & D’Andre Swift.

Marvin Harrison owned per-game averages of 5.8 receptions, 99.0 receiving yards, and 1.12 touchdowns in the last two seasons at Ohio State, and Brett Whitefield believes Harrison is a blend of A.J. Green and Julio Jones due to his size, physicality, and tremendous athletic ability.

Harrison will step into the role previously held by DeAndre Hopkins before the 2023 season, who averaged 16.8 FPG in 35 games with the Cardinals. Buffalo gave up the eighth-fewest FPG (30.6) and the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (128.9) to WRs, per Brolley’s Week 1 Game Hub.

Playing in IDP leagues? Read Justin Varnes’ Week 1 IDP Preview.

DFS

Main Slate Week 1

The most comprehensive dive into the 2024 NFL Week 1 DFS slate:

Justin Fields | $5,000 DK, 22%. Fields might not be good at NFL football, but he’s averaged 21.3 FPG since Week 7 of 2022 (behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes). Of course, that shouldn’t be his expectation this week, given Arthur Smith’s extremely slow-paced run-heavy tendencies. But Fields is still easily the best QB value of the slate if he starts this week (Wilson Calf Injury), priced identically to Zach Wilson at $5,000, per Barrett’s Week 1 DFS Breakdown.

Kenneth Walker | $6,100, 24%. Walker averages 17.2 DK FPG over the last 16 games that Seattle won, clearing 30.0 DK in three of those games. Denver gave up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs a season ago (27.0). And his volume might be better than ever, considering all of the reports out of camp. Great play, per Barretts Week 1 DFS Breakdown.

Kyle Pitts | $4,600, 24%. Pitts is healthy, priced in a great range and is free from the likes of Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder - now replaced by Kirk Cousins and McVay disciple Zac Robinson at OC. Under Smith, the Falcons averaged the 2nd-fewest catchable targets per game over the past two seasons (20.0). The Vikings with Cousins? They averaged the 2nd-most over that span (30.1), a whopping +50% difference in catchable targets.

This is Pitts’ best offensive situation ever, and as a bonus, we could see Cousins funneling volume toward Pitts while Drake London draws a tough matchup against Joey Porter Jr.’s shadow coverage, per Barrett’s Week 1 DFS Breakdown.

With Tee Higgins (hamstring) listed as doubtful and Chase listed as questionable, there’s a massive hole in this pass offense for Week 1. Andrei Iosivas becomes an auto-play at the bare minimum salary on DraftKings ($3,000) and near bare minimum on FanDuel ($4,300). Take the free square to use salary on Jefferson or Hill at wide receiver without sacrificing elsewhere, per Garcia’s Week 1 NFL DFS Cash Core.

📺 Podcast Corner

• The Guru & Brian Drake talk bold predictions. Watch: Bold Predictions for 5 Top Teams Ahead of the 2024 Fantasy Football Season

• Paul Patterson discusses the preseason. Watch: 32 Dynasty Football Takes That MATTER Post 2024 NFL Preseason

• Jake Tribbey & Thomas Tipple talk DFS. Watch: Week 1 NFL DFS Early Look | NFL DFS Strategy

• Theo Gremminger talks Dynasty. Watch: 8 MUST BUY Dynasty Trade Targets Before the 2024 Season

Props & Odds

Week 1 Best Bets

Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) over 38.5 total rushing & receiving yards (-114 FD). McLaughlin cruised past 38.5 total yards in all five games last year in which he played at least 22% of the snaps, averaging 65.3 total yards per game in those contests. No defense allowed more fantasy points to backs over the final five weeks of last season than Seattle, per Kelley’s Paul’s Props: 2024 Week 1.

Jalen Nailor (MIN) over 14.5 receiving yards (-120 ESPNBet). Nailor is expected to be the #3 WR in a receiving corps without Hockenson and has played well in his career in a small sample size. The Giants have allowed the 9th-most receiving YPG (171.5), per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 1.

Jayden Daniels (WAS) over 1.5 Passing TDs (+165 FD). Daniels has had elite, outlier production created as a passer and a rusher in his college career, including a 66.7% completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards. He likes to throw downfield too, with a 14.6% deep throw rate. He faces a TB defense that gave up a lofty 43.5% completion rate on throws 20+ yards, with a 14.5% TD rate on those throws, per Spags Prop Bets Week 1.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 1.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Need some final Week 1 details? Read the Guru’s Hansen’s Hints: 2024 Week 1.

• Can’t get enough ASS? Read Vanek’s Unlocking Average Separation: Playcaller Impact.

• Want to see who our staff picked to win the Super Bowl? Read 2024 NFL Season Predictions.

• Want a deeper understanding of fantasy football? Read Gilberts Understanding Fantasy WAR: League Settings.

• Ready for Week 1? Read 2024 Week 1 Staff Picks.