Guys…we made it.

WELCOME TO WEEK 1 OF THE 2026 NFL SEASON. The offseason is long. The draft prep is endless. But it all pays off when you sit down on Sunday, turn on RedZone, and realize we have an entire new season ahead of us.

But the season’s already a weird one. We’ve had a Drake Maye disasterclass, injury armageddon has begun, and the Niners beat down the Rams in the Land Down Under. Football is so back.

Hopefully the Wednesday and Thursday games were kind to you. If not? We’ve got a whole Sunday slate ahead of us…and we’ve got you covered. Let’s start Week 1 in the win column.

Oh no…too soon?

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Ryan Heath digs through the Fantasy Points Data Suite to identify the best and worst schematic matchups for Week 1.

🎯 Matchup To Target: The Bears Offensive Weapons.

The Bears are one of the most intriguing teams to target this week against Ejiro Evero’s Panthers defense, which has deployed Cover 3 at the NFL’s highest rate (43.8%) over the last three seasons. That plays directly into the strengths of Ben Johnson, whose offenses lead all playcallers in passing yards per game (107.6) against Cover 3 since 2023 while ranking sixth in fantasy points per dropback.

Colston Loveland could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Johnson has historically attacked Cover 3 through his TEs, giving the position a 31.3% target share against the shell last season. Loveland owns a team-high .34 TPRR against Cover 3 over his last 10 games, and after becoming a full-time player from Week 15 through the postseason, he averaged 16.5 DraftKings FPG while leading Chicago in first-read target share (32.0%) and receiving yards per game (78.5).

Luther Burden has been even more efficient against Cover 3, averaging 3.60 YPRR over his last 10 games, a 91.5% increase compared to other coverages. He averaged 13.0 DraftKings FPG from Week 15 through the playoffs despite running a route on just 58.8% of dropbacks, making his expected increase in playing time particularly enticing.

That also makes Caleb Williams an appealing stacking option in DFS. His YPA jumps to 8.16 against Cover 3 over his last 10 games, a 38.8% increase compared to other shells. Carolina was tough on opposing QBs from a fantasy perspective last season, but with Loveland and Burden stepping into larger roles, Rome Odunze already dealing with an injury, and Johnson showing no desire to take his foot off the gas, a Williams double-stack has plenty of tournament appeal.

🌌 Galaxy-Brain Play: Jordan Love & Packers WRs vs Vikings.

Brian Flores’ Vikings present a unique matchup, leading the NFL in both blitz rate (43.6%) and two-high usage (69.0%) over their last 10 games. That sets up particularly well for Jayden Reed, whose 3.44 YPRR against the blitz over his last 10 games ranks sixth among WRs, while his .22 TPRR against two-high looks leads Green Bay. Reed could also see a career-high route share now that Matt LaFleur appears ready to move away from his old WR-by-committee approach.

Jordan Love has also excelled against two-high looks, averaging 0.58 FP/DB since Week 8, fourth-best among QBs and a 38.1% efficiency boost. He’s averaged 19.8 DraftKings FPG against Flores over the past three seasons, including performances of 34.2 and 28.4 points.

The biggest question is passing volume. Green Bay controlled last year’s meeting and asked Love to drop back only 23 times, but that may not be an option as 1.5-point underdogs with Micah Parsons still on IR and Josh Jacobs unavailable. Green Bay ranks third in EPA per dropback over the past two seasons despite remaining one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses.

If the game environment forces LaFleur to open things up, Love, Reed, and Christian Watson form a cheap, contrarian double-stack with plenty of upside.

Read the full article for all of Ryan’s Week 1 advanced insights.

Jordan Vanek analyzes potential shadow coverage situations on the Week 1 slate with positive and negative matchup indicators.

The Buccaneers’ corners are in danger. The Bengals enter Week 1 in a great spot for an explosive passing game against Tampa Bay, with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins ranking inside the top 10 in matchup advantage in our WR/CB Matchup tool.

The Buccaneers blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL while primarily playing zone behind it, which is a dangerous approach against Chase. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged an elite 3.28 yards per route run with a 32% target-per-route-run rate against zone blitzes.

There also isn’t a corner in this secondary that should scare Cincinnati. Chase moves around enough to see multiple defenders, including Zyon McCollum, who allowed seven touchdowns last season, and Jacob Parrish, who allowed a 76% completion rate. He also holds a significant advantage over Benjamin Morrison in our matchup tool.

Tampa Bay wants to bring pressure, but against Joe Burrow and Chase, that could play directly into Cincinnati’s hands and create opportunities for a huge Week 1 performance.

🟢 Other Notable Matchups:

The days of Revis Island are mostly behind us, but that doesn’t mean individual WR/CB matchups have lost their importance. NFL defenses have become more complex, and understanding where a receiver lines up, the coverage he’ll face, and how a defense plans to generate pressure can give us another piece of the puzzle each week.

Read the full article for all of the Week 1 WR/CB Fantasy matchup breakdowns.

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