1. The Everything Report 🔥

2. Starts/Sits👨‍🍳

3. Trends & Trades 📈

4. Best Bets 💸

The Everything Report

QB Changes Galore

We love Jameis Winston. Everyone with eyes knew it was time to move on from Watson, and one game into the Winston era, this is obvious. Watson never threw for over 300 yards in any of his 19 games as a Brown…Winston and Flacco hit that mark 6 of 7 times combined for CLE. After one game, Winston and Watson have the same number of 25-plus-yard completions across the season (3) - which made Tillman, Njoku and Moore fantasy relevant.

There’s a chance Njoku is the second most valuable TE in fantasy behind only Kittle. Tillman could be a WR3. Moore might even be a thing moving forward. All is on the table with the chaos that is Winston…but expect bumps along the way.

Can Flacco save the Colts? The potential the Colts pass-catches have is incredible, and now there’s a chance these guys can hit their stride with Flacco behind center. In Flacco’s starts this year, they’ve averaged 31.0 catchable targets per game, nearly double their league-low total in all other games (16.2). This is a massive environment upgrade.

Last week, Josh Downs scored 22.2 FP on a 28.1% target share, while also leading all WRs in ASS. With ARich, this is a once-a-month thing. With Flacco? This might not be far off his averages moving forward. Things might be happening in Indy.

De’Von Achane x Tua. In three games this season with Tua, Achane averages 26.4 FPG on 21.6 XFP/G - both would easily rank as the RB1 over the full season. His 18.4% target share over that span isn’t far behind Tyreek Hill (22.8%), and it’s well ahead of Waddle. It legitimately looks like Achane is Miami’s WR2.

Even if Mostert stays healthy and if Achane doesn’t cut into Mostert’s goal-line role at all, Achane still looks like a top-7 RB ROS - but if Mostert gets hurt or Achane takes some goal-line touches from him - we’re looking at the possible RB1 rest of the way.

Find more league winners in Scott Barrett’s Week 9 Everything Report.

📺 Podcast Corner

Recent episodes from the Fantasy Points team 👇

• Cowboys, Bo Nix vs Lamar & more. Listen: The Fantasy Points Podcast

• Award Races, All-Rookies, Game Breakdowns & more. Listen: NFL First Read

• League Winning Players & Rising Trends. Listen: School of Scott

• Trade Market Update & Trade Advice. Listen: Dynasty Points

• Week previews. Listen: NFL Best Bets

• The NASTIEST 15 Routes of the 2024 NFL Season

• Week 9 Start/Sits

Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast Network anywhere you get your podcasts!

Starts/Sits

Week 8 Decisions

Graham Barfield helps you make the toughest lineup decisions in Week 9.

Start Brian Robinson. He’s cleared 70 scrimmage yards in 6 of 7 games where he wasn’t banged up. Fire up BRob as a high-end RB2/FLEX against a Giants run defense that’s getting crushed for a league-high 5.4 YPC.

Sit Raheem Mostert. Now that Achane has the clear lead in this backfield, Mostert is a TD-dependent FLEX. He’s averaging a career-low 3.5 YPC. Mostert remains the lead RB in the red zone with 6 carries to 1 for Achane inside-the-10.

Start Ladd McConkey. McConkey broke out in the perfect match-up last week, hammering the Saints for 6/111/2, showcasing his quickness. He’s earned 18% or more of the Chargers targets in every game so far and he leads the team in first-read target share (24%) since the bye.

Sit Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is the WR39 in PPR points per game (11.2). Seattle leads the league in pass rate over expectation (+8.2%) and JSN still can’t break free as a low-end WR3. The Rams hold slot receivers to a league-low 38.3 YPG.

Stream Bo Nix. Over the last four weeks, Nix has completed 67% of his throws for 217.5 yards per game (7.1 YPA), 7 TDs, and just 1 INT. He’s adding 32 YPG and has scored four times on the ground. He’s on the board against a Ravens secondary allowing a league-high 311.6 passing yards per contest.

Read the full Week 9 Start/Sit article

Cincinnati Bengals (32%) vs LAV. The Raiders allow the second most fantasy points to opposing DSTs - sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns are all on the table vs Vegas. The Bengals are getting desperate for wins and this feels like a get-right week for them, per Drake’s Week 9 Streaming D/STs. 

DK takeover. Defensively, LA deploys single-high at the league’s 8th-highest rate (58.2%) and they’re tied for allowing the highest points per dropback to opposing QBs from single-high looks (0.57). The Rams allow over 46% of their targets to players lined up out wide, 2nd most this season…DK has run 82.5% of his routes out wide, per Spanola’s Coverage Shells Week 9.

Chris Olave returns to form. He commanded a 40.6% first-read target share in his first game without Shaheed and is expected to get Carr back this week in a great spot. The Panthers allow the 5th-most receiving YPG (116.9), and play single-high the 2nd highest rate in the NFL (69.2%). Since the start of 2023, Olave has been +77.3% more efficient by YPRR and commanded volume at a +40.5% higher rate by TPRR against single-high, per Heath’s Week 9 Advanced Matchups.

Trends & Trades

Buy Jayden Reed. He’s only the WR82 the last two weeks with 10.5 FP total, and Jordan Love is banged up, but these are all elements driving Reed’s asking price and/or perceived value down. It’s a crowded receiving corp, but the Guru still thinks Reed’s a potential league-wrecker, per Hanesn’s Week 9 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Sell Davante Adams. The Jets may turn things around, but if current trends prevail, we may already be 1 to 2 weeks away from Adams’ perceived value dropping considerably. Things could get ugly, and Wilson is still commanding targets, so it might make sense to move Adams now, per Hanesn’s Week 9 Players To Trade/Trade For.

Is Swift an RB1? He’s erupted for 18.9 FP in four straight games and has reached 16+ carries and 1 rushing TD in four consecutive games. The Cardinals give up the ninth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.26) and the fifth-most rushing YPG (117.3) to RBs…Achane just posted 10/97 rushing & 6/50/1 receiving vs them and Mostert added 2 more rushing TDs, per Brolley’s Week 9 Game Hub.

Buy low on Nick Chubb. He’s seen 71.9% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities through his first two games, but due to the pass-heavy game scripts, that’s translated to just 7.7 FPG. Chubb’s only averaged 2.7 YPC and could be a shell of his former self the rest of the season…but we know this offense can provide scoring opportunities. If Chubb can ramp up to even 90% of his previous effectiveness, he could be instrumental down the stretch, per Heath’s Five Stats To Know From Week 8.

💸 Best Bets

• Bijan Robinson over 23.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365). He ranks 3rd in receiving yards (244) among RBs and has hit 25+ yards in 5 of 8 games. Dallas allows the 6th-most receiving YPG (39.0) and 10.9 YPR to RBs, per Brolley’s Best Bets Week 9.

• Cade Otton over 48.5 receiving yards (-125, BetMGM). The Chiefs allow 67 YPG to TEs over the last 4 weeks, and Otton led Tampa in targets, catches and receiving yard last week. They’ll need to throw plenty in this game, per Kelly’s Paul’s Props Week 9.

• AJ Brown over 74.5 receiving yards (-115 Caesars). Brown is a man-defense smasher - and the Jags are pitiful in that department. AJ has gone ballistic against man defense this year, averaging 5.9 YPRR vs man coverages and is targeted 40% of the time. Hammer him, per Spags’ Prop Bets Week 9.

Curious about IDP action? Read Justin Varnes’ IDP Prop Bets for Week 9.

📖 Quick Hitters

• Wondering why the FP team is excited about Swift & Ridley? Read: The Market Report Week 9.

• Looking for injury info on Puka, Love & more? Read: Week 9 Fantasy Injury Preview.

• Identifying WR vs CB matchups? Read: Week 9 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups.

• Want to know who’s trending up and down in dynasty? Read: Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 9.

• Curious what the best OL/DL matchups are? Read: Scouting The OL/DL Matchups: Week 9.

• Not sure who to take in Week 9? Read: 2024 Week 9 Staff Picks.

• Need some DFS help? Read: Week 9 DFS Main Slate Breakdown.