Welcome to another beautiful summer morning, where Cowboys fans still have hope and we’ve got a new logo. You? You get fantasy football alpha blasting from your inbox.

Continuing last week’s theme of Best Ball roster construction and stacks, Graham Barfield released his primer on QBs. It adds an almost unfair advantage to your Underdog Best Ball teams. A few gems:

1. Drafting two QBs is optimal: Last year, 311 of the 470 (66.1%) teams that made it to the final round of BBM3 drafted two quarterbacks.

2. But many people don’t do it: Just 60.7% of the entrants into BBM3 actually drafted two QBs.

3. 4-Player team stacks generated 6 of the 11 highest finals leverage rates (by measuring the difference between Strategy Usage% and Finals%)

4. Out of all the hours of research Graham’s put into this series, this is probably the most important edge he’s learned: four-player team stacks are absolutely the most optimal stack type on Underdog.

Our thoughts go out to anyone who is not reading this and is not subscribed to FantasyPoints, yet is still drafting best ball teams. Talk about an uphill battle. But hey, life’s not fair. For example, Adam Gase has more money than most of us do, and he knows it.

Thanks for joining us, let’s get after it.

— JR

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FFPC High-Stakes Values

FFPC’s FantasyPros Championship and Main Event tournament-style redraft leagues are by far Scott Barrett’s favorite leagues to play in. In this article, Scott shares the best values based on current FFPC ADP.

First Rounders Not-Named Justin

No first overall pick, no problem. There are many first rounders with high floors and potential to be the No. 1 overall fantasy player.

Ja'Marr Chase (1.02) outperformed Justin Jefferson's sophomore campaign despite playing with a hairline fracture in his hip. Christian McCaffrey (1.03) averaged 22.5 FPG in 10 full games last year, while Travis Kelce (1.04) bested Jefferson in FFPC’s TE Premium format last season, averaging 21.8 FPG.

Given Austin Ekeler’s (1.05) contract situation, they’re heavily incentivized to run him into the ground in 2023. Cooper Kupp (1.06) averages 25.6 FPG in his last 29 healthy games. Tyreek Hill (1.07) ranked fourth in YPRR and averaged 23.0 FPG in games Tua played without a concussion.

While Scott likes Justin Jefferson, JJ doesn’t give you a significant edge over any of these other names.

Value-Picks

Joe Mixon is being drafted as RB15 after finishing as the RB6 and averaging 17.1 FPG. Absurdly, if we remove just one game, he falls to RB13 (14.2). Still, that’s more than baked into his current ADP. Mixon also ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8) in 2022. As it stands, Mixon appears to be the single best value – at any position – in current FFPC drafts.

Over the last four seasons, Derrick Henry (RB9 ADP) has finished 4th (19.0), 1st (23.4), 3rd (20.9), and 3rd (20.0) in FPG. And now he’s catching passes…

Keenan Allen (WR19 ADP) has finished as a top-12 WR in FPG for the past six seasons and, if excluding the two games he left early due to injury, averaged 10.4 targets per game (WR6) and 19.0 FPG (WR7) last year. Yet he is drafted as just a mid-range WR2, rather than as a low-end WR1.

Darren Waller (TE7 ADP) is expected to be a focal point of the Giants' passing game. Sure, Waller underwhelmed the past two seasons (mostly due to multiple injuries), but in the two seasons prior to that, he averaged 18.7 FPG in TE Premium formats.

Read the full article to learn why Kadarius Toney is a terrific draft pick at current ADP, especially in FFPC tournament-style leagues.

OTA Tracker

WRs Noise in Buffalo

Tom Brolley keeps us updated on everything we need to know from spring OTAs and minicamps.

June 15 was the final day of team activities before contact practices begin with the start of training camp in late July, making this the final OTA report of the summer.

The Stefon Diggs drama continues in Buffalo, while second-year WR Khalil Shakir has made some noise with extra run and is pushing to be the #3 WR behind Diggs and Gabe Davis. Shakir is worth a look late in drafts (195, WR83) and has upside if the Diggs situation gets worse.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is sitting out OTAs while nursing a knee injury and the Patriots are actively courting DeAndre Hopkins, which could be related to Smith-Schuster’s knee. Overdrafted (101, WR50) as a low-upside, high-floor pick, Tom is not actively targeting him.

Rashod Bateman practiced at the start of OTAs after his surgery in November for a Lisfranc foot injury, but still needed a “cortisone-type shot” to relieve pain in his foot in June. HC John Harbaugh later clarified that Bateman needed the shot to help the healing process after having screws taken out of his foot.

J.K. Dobbins was absent from the voluntary section of OTAs as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. The team said Dobbins is missing mandatory workouts because of a “minor” soft-tissue injury, but he’s likely sitting out in hopes of a new deal.

Jonathan Taylor is also sitting out mandatory minicamp after having surgery on his ankle in January. He called the procedure a clean-up and targeted a return for training camp. It’s slightly concerning that he’s on the sidelines in June, but there’s no reason to stop drafting Taylor in the second round.

Read the full article to find out which TE the Indianapolis Star believes has the best chance to emerge from Indy’s crowded TE room to be the Colts’ Dallas Goedert as a seam stretcher for Anthony Richardson.

WHAT ELSE IS COOKING

Gunna Rank Em All

Graham Barfield’s top-240 best ball rankings were just updated. These are geared towards Underdog Fantasy’s 0.5 PPR (half-point per reception) leagues. Some key insights:

Nick Chubb finished 2022 as the RB5 in fantasy points per game (15.8) – tied with Saquon Barkley - and is a RB centerpiece you build around. Chubb was fantastic last season, finishing second in yards after contact per carry (3.35) and tied for first in missed tackles forced per carry (0.31). Chubb’s spiked games are just like prime Derrick Henry.

If you need another reason to love Chubb, he also has his own cereal: Chubb Crunch.

Davante Adams still has a top-5 ceiling, but his floor is lower than ever as he enters his age-31 season. Adams is a baller, but Graham is lower on him because new (and injured) QB Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a good fit for Adams’ skill-set and Garoppolo’s injury throws a layer of risk into the entire Raiders team projection – not just Adams’ outlook. Brian Hoyer is currently their #2 QB.

Prop Bets - Run & Catch

Tom Brolley breaks down his best bets for WR yardage props and RB rushing props in this series.

Wideouts

Deebo Samuel managed just 632 receiving yards on 94 targets in 13 games after erupting for 1405 yards during his breakout 2021 campaign. We’re taking Deebo at his word when he says he wants revenge for his poor performance last season, and his rushing workload should be scaled back with Christian McCaffrey in town.

Allen Lazard posted a career-best 788 receiving yards as Green Bay’s #1 WR in 2022, but he’s back behind a stud in Garrett Wilson and is in a crowded Jets WR room. 675.5 receiving yards seems a stretch.

The same is true for Tyler Lockett, who is expected to see under 875.5 receiving yards as Lockett competes with young studs D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets, while Seattle’s rushing volume is expected to grow.

Runners

Tony Pollard’s chances of surpassing 1100.5 rushing yards are uncertain due to health concerns and the chance the Cowboys add competition in the backfield. Pollard fractured his fibula in late January, but said his rehab is ahead of schedule and that he plans to be ready for training camp. We’ll see if he can stay extremely efficient. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are also among the RBs still available, and Jerry Jones could still bring back Ezekiel Elliott.

If J.K. Dobbins is finally healthy from 2021 knee injury, Tom’s taking over 800.5 rushing yards. Dobbins looked headed toward stardom after averaging 6.0 YPA with nine rushing TDs on just 134 attempts as a rookie. He got back to that form in his final four games last season, posting almost 400 yards rushing on an incredible 7.0 YPA.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 580.5 rushing yards. D’Andre Swift averaged 5.5 YPC for 542 rushing yards behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Gibbs will take over Swift’s snaps against lighter boxes behind Detroit’s elite line. A 4.5 YPC average is attainable for Gibbs as a rookie, which means he’d need just 130 carries to get over 580.5 rushing yards. He’d have to average 7.6 attempts per game in a backfield that averaged 25.1 RB attempts per game last season.

🎤 Top RB Groups - Steve O'Rourke and Brett Whitefield select and debate their top-10 RB rooms in the NFL (podcast)

🎤 Injury Insights - John Hansen and his good friend Dr. Mark Adickes, orthopedic surgeon and former Super Bowl champion, discuss some big injury questions headed into the 2023 NFL season (podcast)

🎤 Underdog Roster Construction - Brian Drake and Joe Dolan are joined by Graham Barfield to discuss the optimal ways to draft a best ball team on Underdog Fantasy. They break down the amount of each position needed and give their favorite sleepers to draft late (podcast)

Three Tweets

Want to see your team in the Super Bowl? It’s easy, make sure they lead the NFL in passing yards per attempt on third-downs:

Could we see a revival of the New England TE-pass-catcher movement? Graham says yes:

Questions about Jordan Love’s 2023 outlook? We got you.

Dynasty Corner

2023 Devy Top-10 WR Rankings by Josh Chevalier ranks the best college WRs. #1 ranked Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is the undisputed WR1 in Devy and will be a top-5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He combines the elite route-running of his father with a 6’4”, 205-pound frame, making him practically unguardable.

Emeka Egbuka, the WR2, is a YAC monster who runs crisp routes and makes the quarterback’s job very easy by getting great separation on his routes. If you like Amon-Ra St. Brown, then you are going to love Egbuka, who has similar traits. Expect Egbuka to be a top-15 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

As always, all this content and more is available at FantasyPoints.com. Don’t forget code DADROCK10 for an extra 10% off that FantasyPoints subscription you know he deserves (or desperately needs?).

And that concludes this edition of The Roundup.

Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions or issues.